Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 20 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: CTP has headlines up, I was wondering how much of the central they were going to consider for watches. 4-6” is the snow amount forecast for the whole watch area. It has been looking like 6” may end up being the ceiling for the most part… reflective on the new probability products CTP has where best 6+ probs (30-40%) have shifted north to center on the UNV to IPT part of true central. Interesting how the LSV WWA is for just 1-3 for all of the LSV. The Watch area in the immediate layer of counties to to north in Juniata & Snyder jumps to 4 to 6 inches. CTP basically has a DT type of map! I understand the 1 to 3 for York & Lancaster, but I think the next tier of counties in Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry & Lebanon should be at least 2 to 4. I’m sure they will refine this 100 times today. Maybe this is CTP’s DT style “first call” ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 The 6z GFS came in much improved for the LSV for tomorrow, especially in the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Here is the 6z GFS snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 53 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Interesting how the LSV WWA is for just 1-3 for all of the LSV. The Watch area in the immediate layer of counties to to north in Juniata & Snyder jumps to 4 to 6 inches. CTP basically has a DT type of map! I understand the 1 to 3 for York & Lancaster, but I think the next tier of counties in Dauphin, Cumberland, Perry & Lebanon should be at least 2 to 4. I’m sure they will refine this 100 times today. Maybe this is CTP’s DT style “first call” ? Wasn't DT a meteorologist for NWS at one time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Wasn't DT a meteorologist for NWS at one time? I could be mistaken, but I think he has always been in the private sector of meteorology with paying clients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I could be mistaken, but I think he has always been in the private sector of meteorology with paying clients. I think I read somewhere he was employed by the NWS at one time many years ago. I could be wrong though. Q: You run the weather forecasting service WXRisk, and we’ve heard from people who swear by your forecasts, people who sing your praises. So what’s your story? How did you get here? And what’s your secret to predicting the future? Tolleris: Yeah, well, I’ve been here since the 1994, 1995. I originally came down to join the National Weather Service in Wakefield and it turned out that I’m not a big government type of person. https://www.chesterfieldobserver.com/articles/five-minutes-with-dave-tolleris/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 DT looking for signs of snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 28 this AM. Cannot say I like any of the Meso model looks for the LSV. HRRR, Nam, Rgem, Fv3 all mostly miss the LSV with the first warm front's snow and do not get precip here until 11-1 ish tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: DT looking for signs of snow. Most of the rest of the forum as well...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, Voyager said: Most of the rest of the forum as well...lol Does that include you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Does that include you? That is not him. I do not see any A/C's on the roof's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 This is CTP’s forecast for tomorrow for Harrisburg: Wednesday Rain and snow before 1pm, then rain, snow, and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then rain after 4pm. High near 37. East wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: This is CTP’s forecast for tomorrow for Harrisburg: Wednesday Rain and snow before 1pm, then rain, snow, and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then rain after 4pm. High near 37. East wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. This is full of confidence….lol…they are really covering all of their bases… And the 2 to 4 inches of snow does not match their WWA of 1 to 3 for Harrisburg…. Despite their inconsistency, I tend to agree with this grid forecast of 2 to 4 for the Harrisburg area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 From DT: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Does that include you? Nope...lol But I wouldn't have to go far. It snowed in some low elevations yesterday just 50 miles from Phoenix. In fact, in Buckeye, just west of town along I-10, there were flurries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 A little late for ensembles, but the 6z GEFS gets 2 to 4 to most of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Here is the 0z Canadian ensemble. Again, 2 to 4 in the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Welp, been pouring over the guidance here this morning and......not good. The concern I brought up yesterday about the initial slug of moisture missing us to the north seems to be coming to fruition. Mesos are a mess, with drylslot and temp issues abound. I'm selling this stock for Lancaster County. I'll stick with my original over/under of an inch at this point but would throw down some serious coin on the under. Good luck to those across the Midstate in line for some stickage. As always, I hope to be wrong. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Snip from a contest I enter...a little tidbut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Today's the biggest model runs ever. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 looks like a pecker ready to drip right into my cheerios 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The latest HRRR, which has trended away from the tongue hitting the LSV, continues that trend at 12Z. Much of the LSV is shut out unfortunately. A little snow to go in the NE with this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The latest HRRR, which has trended away from the tongue hitting the LSV, continues that trend at 12Z. Much of the LSV is shut out unfortunately. A little snow to go in the NE with this panel. Lancaster is in the white shading there - that means snow...right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Lancaster is in the white shading there - that means snow...right? Here is a chart showing how much time I spent tracking this vs. the results apparently coming. LOL. I enjoy the chase though... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Everyone knew this was coming, right? I just expect it at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, anotherman said: Everyone knew this was coming, right? I just expect it at this point.... We were maybe expecting too much from a low headed to the mid west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Scanning across the 12z Meso suite and yikes......the fat leading is singing for the LSV. If they are correct, and it sure seems they will be, then this will go down as a pretty big miss for the globals. More disappointment in what is fast becoming a disappointing winter. Here's to a pattern shift shaking things up in the weeks to come, but not holding my breath on anything at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I think the 0.0 streak unfortunately continues at Millersville tomorrow. Yesterday's snow just wasn't enough here to catch a measurable designation. For record, the lowest seasonal snowfall ever recorded at MU was 4.0" back 1949-1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, anotherman said: Everyone knew this was coming, right? I just expect it at this point.... I sort of did - my original thought was 1" or so at most. Having said that, I did waver and started believing some of those maps posted. As Bubbler said - expectations were too high given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I sort of did - my original thought was 1" or so at most. Having said that, I did waver and started believing some of those maps posted. As Bubbler said - expectations were too high given the setup. I know, we get sucked into it. I did too, but deep down I expected it to be another head fake.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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