pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah I'm with ya. However, the tail ends of both the FV3 and the 3k NAM also show that overrunning breaking out a bit too far to our north for my liking. Something to keep an eye on. As of now I'm putting the over/under at an inch for my neck of the woods. I think your expectation is reasonable, and hopefully one that we can overachieve with. IF this new look is legit, we should see these looks hold, or get a tad better as we approach go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The Canadian has also shunted totals and moved them further north. Not loving these trends. Just took a peek and yep...ur right. Ticked N. Hoist flag.....once again. arghhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Globals are going to under estimate the CAD. That’s not a weenie line, but legit when we should actually use the NAM. I would toss the CMC thermals for the thump. For example, the 12ZCMC actually has the 2” further south and East then its 0Z run but the 6 hour panels looked terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Streak Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 As of 12 noon, approximately an inch of snow on the ground. Been flurrying on and off all morning, anything from barely-there, blink-and-you’ll-miss-it to a bit heavier but for the moment it’s legit snowing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Add the Ukie to the list of 12z runs cutting back totals and moving the boundary north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 25 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Globals are going to under estimate the CAD. That’s not a weenie line, but legit when we should actually use the NAM. I would toss the CMC thermals for the thump. For example, the 12ZCMC actually has the 2” further south and East then its 0Z run but the 6 hour panels looked terrible. Yeah, thats a great reminder for folks to remember. This SHOULD be one of those situ's. Guessing that's what CTP is thinking as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 CTP call of 2-4 might need to lowered to 1-3 Edit: 5-9 in State College WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Most of the coating of snow I had this morning has melted here. Really elevational snowfall… it goes from little to none on the main part of PSU Altoona’s campus to 1”+ barely a mile up the road and 3”+ at the top of the mountain. Just a couple degrees of temp and a couple hundred feet of elevation made a big difference.. If it works, here’s a time lapse video from Penn State Altoona to the top of Wopsy Mountain (about 4-5 miles) E32B3C95-35EC-494B-BBC2-B0C4315486EC.MOV 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Oof. Add the Euro to the jog north with thermals camp. Did NOT expect that......but the term atmospheric memory comes to mind right now. I may need to go get a jockstrap and cup....this may hurt a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Oof. Add the Euro to the jog north with thermals camp. Did NOT expect that......but the term atmospheric memory comes to mind right now. I may need to go get a jockstrap and cup....this may hurt a little. It’s been the trend for ~4 years, nothing to stop it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Oof. Add the Euro to the jog north with thermals camp. Did NOT expect that......but the term atmospheric memory comes to mind right now. I may need to go get a jockstrap and cup....this may hurt a little. Still showing about 3" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Euro for your pleasure.Can’t be disappointed with a large swath 3-6” ISO 8 storm, in this winter at least. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Euro for your pleasure. Can’t be disappointed with a large swath 3-6” ISO 8 storm, in this winter at least . Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Euro for your pleasure. Can’t be disappointed with a large swath 3-6” ISO 8 storm, in this winter at least . Wonder if that is including todays total, as this one looks different? IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Euro for your pleasure.Can’t be disappointed with a large swath 3-6” ISO 8 storm, in this winter at least.I'll allow it.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Wonder if that is including todays total, as this one looks different? IDKIt’s the difference of an inch, but hold on I’ll get the 24 hr map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 The SE edge of the "Decent" (2") snows continues to move NW. I'm not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: . Looks good in my book! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Late nooner 38 cloudy and raw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Anyone with Euro access, can you look at what it's forecasting for winds Thursday? The other day it was very strong, 30-35 or so winds with roughly 55 mph gusts for a prolonged part of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Anyone with Euro access, can you look at what it's forecasting for winds Thursday? The other day it was very strong, 30-35 or so winds with roughly 55 mph gusts for a prolonged part of the day.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Great update! .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Noon Monday Update... Just some minor adjustments will be made to timing and QPF/Snowfall amounts at this point for late Tuesday night/Wed in order to preserve consistent messaging next Winter Storm that will soon be taking the NE turn toward us from the Llano Estacado and Permian Basin of West Texas. It looks like the period of snowfall from this upcoming storm will be associated primarily with the period of moderate to strong UVVEL from a potent, southerly low to mid-level jet and its WAA. The track of the primary low is seen by the majority of model Guidance heading into the Ohio Valley with the nose of a strong, 60KT south- southwesterly LLJ creating an approx 6 hour period of strong isent lift and a cross-hair pattern on regional timesections between 12-18Z Wed, where the max UVVEL and DGZ zone intersects. This should bring widespread MDT to HVY snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour for much of the mid to late morning hours Wed, and into the mid-late afternoon hours across the NE part of our CWA. Afterward, a transition to sleet/freezing rain and gradual decrease in intensity will occur as first a deepening layer of above freezing Tw air aloft races north over us, followed by the deeper, seer-feeder cloud layer into the DGZ peeling away to the NE leaving warmer clouds confined to the layer up through about 8-10 kft AGL. Temps Wed afternoon and evening will only inch up to the 30-33F range across much of the Central and Nrn Mtns, but should climb just above freezing across the region near and to the SE of interstate 81, changing the snow/mix to plain light rain or drizzle Wed evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, paweather said: Great update! .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Noon Monday Update... Just some minor adjustments will be made to timing and QPF/Snowfall amounts at this point for late Tuesday night/Wed in order to preserve consistent messaging next Winter Storm that will soon be taking the NE turn toward us from the Llano Estacado and Permian Basin of West Texas. It looks like the period of snowfall from this upcoming storm will be associated primarily with the period of moderate to strong UVVEL from a potent, southerly low to mid-level jet and its WAA. The track of the primary low is seen by the majority of model Guidance heading into the Ohio Valley with the nose of a strong, 60KT south- southwesterly LLJ creating an approx 6 hour period of strong isent lift and a cross-hair pattern on regional timesections between 12-18Z Wed, where the max UVVEL and DGZ zone intersects. This should bring widespread MDT to HVY snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour for much of the mid to late morning hours Wed, and into the mid-late afternoon hours across the NE part of our CWA. Afterward, a transition to sleet/freezing rain and gradual decrease in intensity will occur as first a deepening layer of above freezing Tw air aloft races north over us, followed by the deeper, seer-feeder cloud layer into the DGZ peeling away to the NE leaving warmer clouds confined to the layer up through about 8-10 kft AGL. Temps Wed afternoon and evening will only inch up to the 30-33F range across much of the Central and Nrn Mtns, but should climb just above freezing across the region near and to the SE of interstate 81, changing the snow/mix to plain light rain or drizzle Wed evening. Thats about as good as we can get w/ this setup. Nice to hear they are "on board" with us weenies.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: . Thanks, it's come down quite a bit from what I saw early yesterday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Thats about as good as we can get w/ this setup. Nice to hear they are "on board" with us weenies.... Yep they are certainly on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Thanks, it's come down quite a bit from what I saw early yesterday am. Also some strong gusts Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Also some strong gusts Wednesday afternoon . We're the new wind capital of America, of course there are! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, canderson said: We're the new wind capital of America, of course there are! Have you picked up a heavier gauge chain for your garbage bin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is not going to be the vibe of a typical post of mine. This winter is wearing on me. We had one snow at home (about 1") which I missed entirely while I was at work. It snowed a second time (about .25") while I slept and missed again. (though I did see some remnants in the morning. Today I started my day at home as I got home very late last night and had early meetings this morning, which I took from home. I was up at 5:30 and saw rain. It rained up until the time I left. Between 7 and 8 there was a mix, but it never flipped to snow (I clearly was lacking rates at this point) and it was never even close to moderate. On my way to work I did see the hills south of Wrightsville were VERY white...clearly more than a coating. The only other evidence of snow I saw was a little bit on Chickies between the trail parking lot and the day care center on the south side. Nothing at all anywhere else, and nothing at home other than some mixed flakes with the rain. Happy that you got to see some nice snow falling. But this winter just flat out sucks. And there's nothing anyone can say at this point to convince me otherwise. I feel for those down here in the southern part of Lanco who are STILL shutout on the season. On to Wednesday... Great melt this morning! (Which I respect) I promise to better it if I don’t see at least 2” Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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