canderson Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Plain light rain in HBG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I haven’t been super impressed with today’s event in C-PA the last couple days. The separation between the decent area of moderate snows currently traversing Ohio and NW PA (with the weak parent low) and the later blooming coastal low is a killer for the central counties. Persistent good rates are needed where it’s cold enough to snow with the marginal temps and radar is fairly disorganized in this realm for now, though trying to blossom. Later on this evening is where we will see how quickly the precip shield organizes with the coastal. This especially looks good on meso guidance NE of UNV to IPT and NE PA but it remains to be seen for the I-99 corridor (AOO to UNV) and also if any change to snow can push toward the Sus Valley. Presuming we get a good shield set up, I think most accumulating stuff stays north and west of Harrisburg and will be pretty elevation dependent in that part of the ridge and valley (pretty much the region boxed in by I-99/I-80/PA Turnpike/I-81). Probably 1-2” type deal with advisory amounts starting NE of UNV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I haven’t been super impressed with today’s event in C-PA the last couple days. The separation between the decent area of moderate snows currently traversing Ohio and NW PA (with the weak parent low) and the later blooming coastal low is a killer for the central counties. Persistent good rates are needed where it’s cold enough to snow with the marginal temps and radar is fairly disorganized in this realm for now, though trying to blossom. Later on this evening is where we will see how quickly the precip shield organizes with the coastal. This especially looks good on meso guidance NE of UNV to IPT and NE PA but it remains to be seen for the I-99 corridor (AOO to UNV) and also if any change to snow can push toward the Sus Valley. Presuming we get a good shield set up, I think most accumulating stuff stays north and west of Harrisburg and will be pretty elevation dependent in that part of the ridge and valley (pretty much the region boxed in by I-99/I-80/PA Turnpike/I-81). Probably 1-2” type deal with advisory amounts starting NE of UNV. Yes, the disorganization & separation is hurting this event. The better looks a few days ago had a little more organization, which is needed in marginal situations like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Hopefully the Wednesday event has a nice organized precip shield that attacks the just cold enough air to produce a good snow thump. The 12z EPS remains steady for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 We are over half inch of rain and may get close to 3/4. It is pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully the Wednesday event has a nice organized precip shield that attacks the just cold enough air to produce a good snow thump. The 12z EPS remains steady for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Rain and sleet 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 18z 3k NAM likes the back end snow idea for the LSV tomorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 The latest HRRR is coming around to the same idea for tomorrow am for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully the Wednesday event has a nice organized precip shield that attacks the just cold enough air to produce a good snow thump. The 12z EPS remains steady for Wednesday. I do like this storm to target the heart of the CTP region with a decent warm advection snowfall. The other ensemble blends are pretty similar to the Euro’s. Storm is close enough that the Euro’s hourly products (out to 90) can see pretty much the whole event. The hourly was suggestive of a band to 1-2”/hr snowfall to come across C-PA during the late morning/early afternoon Wednesday prior to the mixing/dry slot. My concern at the moment is for the southern tier LSV. Models like the Euro and NAM (at range) are having the bulk of this WAA snowfall swath roughly turnpike and north there and missing with the best rates at a time when it will easily be cold enough to snow there. Something to watch as this gets more into the short range. I still think everyone in the LSV sees at least 1”+ out of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I do like this storm to target the heart of the CTP region with a decent warm advection snowfall. The other ensemble blends are pretty similar to the Euro’s. Storm is close enough that the Euro’s hourly products (out to 90) can see pretty much the whole event. The hourly was suggestive of a band to 1-2”/hr snowfall to come across C-PA during the late morning/early afternoon Wednesday prior to the mixing/dry slot. My concern at the moment is for the southern tier LSV. Models like the Euro and NAM (at range) are having the bulk of this WAA snowfall swath roughly turnpike and north there and missing with the best rates at a time when it will easily be cold enough to snow there. Something to watch as this gets more into the short range. I still think everyone in the LSV sees at least 1”+ out of this. Your second paragraph is what we saw several times over the last few years....the low went far enough west to have that first wave bypass us down south due to the angle of attack/width of the WAA band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I do like this storm to target the heart of the CTP region with a decent warm advection snowfall. The other ensemble blends are pretty similar to the Euro’s. Storm is close enough that the Euro’s hourly products (out to 90) can see pretty much the whole event. The hourly was suggestive of a band to 1-2”/hr snowfall to come across C-PA during the late morning/early afternoon Wednesday prior to the mixing/dry slot. My concern at the moment is for the southern tier LSV. Models like the Euro and NAM (at range) are having the bulk of this WAA snowfall swath roughly turnpike and north there and missing with the best rates at a time when it will easily be cold enough to snow there. Something to watch as this gets more into the short range. I still think everyone in the LSV sees at least 1”+ out of this. 12Z models continuing to trend warmer here in the southeast for Wednesday. I’m going to go against you and say I’m not seeing 1”. I hope I’m wrong and you’re right!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 At least seeing Snow on TV makes it feel like winter! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Your second paragraph is what we saw several times over the last few years....the low went far enough west to have that first wave bypass us down south due to the angle of attack/width of the WAA band. Yes, the angle of the wall of precip will be important on Wednesday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 998 Low down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 @66 high is in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 @72 wash away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 @90 artic air but the country is dry UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Rain hereSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Pouring here in south Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said: 12Z models continuing to trend warmer here in the southeast for Wednesday. I’m going to go against you and say I’m not seeing 1”. I hope I’m wrong and you’re right!! The SE edge of the blues is advancing northwest the past 24 hours. Might not matter for some but it means a lot for you and me. My expectations are low for Wednesday. Very low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: The SE edge of the blues is advancing northwest the past 24 hours. Might not matter for some but it means a lot for you and me. My expectations are low for Wednesday. Very low. Enjoy the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: The SE edge of the blues is advancing northwest the past 24 hours. Might not matter for some but it means a lot for you and me. My expectations are low for Wednesday. Very low. Whatever we get it washing away UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Whatever we get it washing away UGH With a low in the mid-west that seems to be our fate either way. No one I saw posted the Icon, can you blame them after how it handled this system, but it snowed for quite some time at 18Z. Dawn to dusk in the LSV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: With a low in the mid-west that seems to be our fate either way. No one I saw posted the Icon, can you blame them after how it handled this system, but it snowed for quite some time at 18Z. Dawn to dusk in the LSV. ICON equals weenies model like me. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: With a low in the mid-west that seems to be our fate either way. No one I saw posted the Icon, can you blame them after how it handled this system, but it snowed for quite some time at 18Z. Dawn to dusk in the LSV. Yes, 18z ICON & GFS both have a good approach angle with the precip shield for Wednesday for all of CTP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 Here is the 18z GFS snow map for Wednesday only 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 18z Euro like the idea of a change over to snow for the Harrisburg area & to the west & north tomorrow am. It has 1 to 2 inches for parts of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 18z Euro gets Wednesday front end snow to Warning level for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 Best EPS run of the day for the Wednesday thump for all of CTP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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