paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The points about no cold air being around are really spot on. Just no room for error....still fun to try and find a needle in the haystack (in a realistic way) sometimes vs. just giving up. Yep that’s it right now with no cold in place. Hope that changes soon. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Really stoked for another rainy January day!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, canderson said: Really stoked for another rainy January day!!! NYC will probably have the same so you doomed even if at your second home :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Always like to hear plowable! Light snow showing in the radar to our south and west. 38/33 here now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: NYC will probably have the same so you doomed even if at your second home :-) Ha, no planned trips for 2 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 20 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep that’s it right now with no cold in place. Hope that changes soon. We shall see! something to ponder as we move forward. Even if the cold isnt deep here....it's going to be "closer to us", so that may help front/back action that we all look for. Whether it antecedent or post storm, the boundary likely sags a bit south from what weve seen, and the models are showing that as green is being replaced by blues for upcoming events. One other caveat, is that as I suggested a few days ago, and after a quick look at tellies suggest to me that its more of a "window of opportunity" and not a sustained period of fun. I wish (and hope) that I'm dead nuts wrong on that....trust me. MJO going into 3 NAO headed + AO headed + PNA neut a snapshot from above indies in my mind suggests a flat/zonal west to WAR once again winning in the east. Back to cutters as we turn the calendar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, paweather said: Yep that’s it right now with no cold in place. Hope that changes soon. We shall see! The cold air is in place, just not the right place. It was 31 this morning in my backyard, and there's still frost anywhere the sun hasn't hit yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: something to ponder as we move forward. Even if the cold isnt deep here....it's going to be "closer to us", so that may help front/back action that we all look for. Whether it antecedent or post storm, the boundary likely sags a bit south from what weve seen, and the models are showing that as green is being replaced by blues for upcoming events. One other caveat, is that as I suggested a few days ago, and after a quick look at tellies suggest to me that its more of a "window of opportunity" and not a sustained period of fun. I wish (and hope) that I'm dead nuts wrong on that....trust me. MJO going into 3 NAO headed + AO headed + PNA neut a snapshot from above indies in my mind suggests a flat/zonal west to WAR once again winning in the east. Back to cutters as we turn the calendar. The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle. Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east. It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch. I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle. Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east. It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch. I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday. -EPO to neutral & neutral to -WPO should help as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle. Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east. It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch. I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday. While 3 favors cold, +AO and +NAO do not. IMO if we can get a zonal look with that base state that would be reasonable. No doubt we'd be riding the line though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: -EPO to neutral & neutral to -WPO should help as well. -EPO has been our ticket to ride the snow train before, so lets hope its our ace in the hole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Clouds and 38. Ready for a soggy trip to Philly today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 The 12z GFS for today/tomorrow am has front end snow to rain back to snow by morning for the PA turnpike on to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Clouds and 38. Ready for a soggy trip to Philly today. Let’s go Sixers hahaha Not today but a sweep out west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Today back in 2016 we were getting bombarded with heavy snow. 32” for me. Insane. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z GFS for today/tomorrow am has front end snow to rain back to snow by morning for the PA turnpike on to the north. That’s a great look for today and tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 The front end thump for Wednesday still looks good for all on CTP on the 12z GFS. Snow map is Only for Wednesday’s storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The front end thump for Wednesday still looks good for all on CTP on the 12z GFS. Snow map is Only for Wednesday’s storm. Are we shoveling tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Flurries and sprinkle mix here now. 41 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, paweather said: Let’s go Sixers hahaha Not today but a sweep out west! Something else out west today. A potential forum divider next week! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 37.9 temp dropping to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 The 12z Euro is showing the front end light snow to back end light snow tomorrow am. It brings 1 to 2 inches from Harrisburg to the North and lesser amounts to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 The 12z Euro also still has the front end thump for most of CTP on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Like that Euro! Precip beginning as snow flurries in State College. Lets get this winter going! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Well, I will officially see frozen here today, as we had a nice little sleet shower just roll through. Hey, we have to embrace the small victories down this way ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Well, I will officially see frozen here today, as we had a nice little sleet shower just roll through. Hey, we have to embrace the small victories down this way ha. Hope I see some frozen as well. Maybe need to wait until Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Snowing in Buffalo should be a fun game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 37 with the proverbial wintry mix right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 25 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Well, I will officially see frozen here today, as we had a nice little sleet shower just roll through. Hey, we have to embrace the small victories down this way ha. Just saw this - sleet, rain, and a stray parachute falling here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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