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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The points about no cold air being around are really spot on.  Just no room for error....still fun to try and find a needle in the haystack (in a realistic way) sometimes vs. just giving up. 

Yep that’s it right now with no cold in place. Hope that changes soon. We shall see! 

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20 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yep that’s it right now with no cold in place. Hope that changes soon. We shall see! 

something to ponder as we move forward.  Even if the cold isnt deep here....it's going to be "closer to us", so that may help front/back action that we all look for.  Whether it antecedent or post storm, the boundary likely sags a bit south from what weve seen, and the models are showing that as green is being replaced by blues for upcoming events.  One other caveat, is that as I suggested a few days ago, and after a quick look at tellies suggest to me that its more of a "window of opportunity" and not a sustained period of fun.  I wish (and hope) that I'm dead nuts wrong on that....trust me.

MJO going into 3

NAO headed +

AO headed +

PNA neut

a snapshot from above indies in my mind suggests a flat/zonal west to WAR once again winning in the east.  Back to cutters as we turn the calendar.

 

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12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

something to ponder as we move forward.  Even if the cold isnt deep here....it's going to be "closer to us", so that may help front/back action that we all look for.  Whether it antecedent or post storm, the boundary likely sags a bit south from what weve seen, and the models are showing that as green is being replaced by blues for upcoming events.  One other caveat, is that as I suggested a few days ago, and after a quick look at tellies suggest to me that its more of a "window of opportunity" and not a sustained period of fun.  I wish (and hope) that I'm dead nuts wrong on that....trust me.

MJO going into 3

NAO headed +

AO headed +

PNA neut

a snapshot from above indies in my mind suggests a flat/zonal west to WAR once again winning in the east.  Back to cutters as we turn the calendar.

 

The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle.

Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east.

It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch.

I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle.

Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east.

It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch.

I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday.

-EPO to neutral & neutral to -WPO should help as well.

2F6E4CFB-9B2C-4991-B505-1B015665F7B1.png

997D429D-5DD5-4A8F-94A6-E4DB67435E95.png

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27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle.

Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east.

It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch.

I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday.

While 3 favors cold,

+AO and +NAO do not.

IMO if we can get a zonal look with that base state that would be reasonable.  No doubt we'd be riding the line though.

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