Superstorm Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 And 12Z GFS looks loaded with chances….at least cold is there . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Late nooners. 33 on top of mountain between mercersburg and mcconnellburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Late nooners. 33 on top of mountain between mercersburg and mcconnellburg At the bar are ya?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: At the bar are ya? Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Very astute observation but that is on 30 and I am off 16. Lol. Impressive though. We turn at the bar to go to Cowans gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Very astute observation but that is on 30 and I am off 16. Lol. Impressive though. We turn at the bar to go to Cowans gap.I grew up in Orbisonia and swam in I the lake at Cowan's Gap before they traded snakes for e.Coli. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 ADVISED. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service State College PA213 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023PAZ006-011-012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-221000-/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.230122T2000Z-230123T0800Z/Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-Including the cities of Coudersport, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois,Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Mansfield, Wellsboro,Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg,Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick,and Pottsville213 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM ESTMONDAY...* WHAT...A several to 8 hour period of snow, then some lighter mixed precipitation or light freezing rain Sunday night near and to the south of Interstate 80. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Snowfall could be around 4 inches across the highest terrain near and to the Northeast of the Williamsport and Lock Haven areas.* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM EST Monday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A 1 to 2 hour delay in the changeover to mixed precipitation Sunday evening could add another inch or so to the snowfall totals.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and PennsylvaniaTurnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based ondriving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvaniaroadways.Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadwayand traffic conditions.To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebookpage, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.&&$$Lambert/Martin/GartnerSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 ALEET…I mean… Advisory…for some southern PA counties as well…including mine! Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 213 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 PAZ024>028-033>035-056-221000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0003.230122T1900Z-230123T0400Z/ Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Perry- Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, and Newport 213 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow then mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 2 PM to 11 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There`s a chance that the changeover to mixed precipitation or freezing rain could be delayed by up to a few hours late Sunday. This would add around another inch or so to the snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Superstorm said: I think Lanco gets on the board Wednesday. . Pains me to say it but...I kind of see Wednesday turning into tomorrow's event. Anyone close to that SE edge may see any accumulations march steadily northwest. 12Z Euro already starting that move. Why bet against the seasonal trend at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 The 12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensembles still look good for the Wednesday snow thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 The 18z HRRR looks interesting for the Tomorrow pm into Monday am event. It has the initial period of snow to mix & then it shows a secondary low development that brings a decent period of snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 Here is the 18z HRRR snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 The 18z HRRR looks interesting for the Tomorrow pm into Monday am event. It has the initial period of snow to mix & then it shows a secondary low development that brings a decent period of snow on the back end.GFS has kinda showed this as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said: Pains me to say it but...I kind of see Wednesday turning into tomorrow's event. Anyone close to that SE edge may see any accumulations march steadily northwest. 12Z Euro already starting that move. Why bet against the seasonal trend at this point? It is certainly a possibility. We were seeing WSW levels snows for parts of the LASV tomorrow as recently as 2-3 days ago...and now? Anyway, the UK upped accums a bit in the Northern LSV for the Wednesday Chruch Train/Halfway to Eagles and Cowboys showdown storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It is certainly a possibility. We were seeing WSW levels snows for parts of the LASV tomorrow as recently as 2-3 days ago...and now? Anyway, the UK upped accums a bit in the Northern LSV for Wed. I’d sign up for the this Ukie for Wednesday! Most models for tomorrow as of a couple of days ago had Advisory level 1-3 or 2-4 inch amounts, especially from Harrisburg north & west. The exceptions were that 1 epic Euro run & that Ukie run that you re-posted this morning. I still think there is time for the Tomorrow event to trend back to a 1-3 inch snow for the LSV like the HRRR just showed at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 The 18z NAMs both are bringing 1-2 inches back to the LSV. Maybe the start of the trend back to a respectable Advisory event for parts of the LSV? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’d sign up for the this Ukie for Wednesday! Most models for tomorrow as of a couple of days ago had Advisory level 1-3 or 2-4 inch amounts, especially from Harrisburg north & west. The exceptions were that 1 epic Euro run & that Ukie run that you re-posted this morning. I still think there is time for the Tomorrow event to trend back to a 1-3 inch snow for the LSV like the HRRR just showed at 18z. The CMC was also showing big snow whether high ended Adv or low end WSW. It was the first one I saw actually....there was this map which was the last of the big snow maps where the back down start. The ICON had big snows south of Harrisburg as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Yeah, the NAM was noticeable in how much colder it was than 12Z. Also, as others mentioned starting to see some support for the R/S line to crash back to the southeast at some point. Interesting to see if that holds up during the 0Z runs. Feels like we've been tracking this one forever and we still have a full day to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Yeah, the NAM was noticeable in how much colder it was than 12Z. Also, as others mentioned starting to see some support for the R/S line to crash back to the southeast at some point. Interesting to see if that holds up during the 0Z runs. Feels like we've been tracking this one forever and we still have a full day to go! Yes, hopefully we get a decent little event tomorrow pm while tracking the Wednesday front ender! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Yeah, the NAM was noticeable in how much colder it was than 12Z. Also, as others mentioned starting to see some support for the R/S line to crash back to the southeast at some point. Interesting to see if that holds up during the 0Z runs. Feels like we've been tracking this one forever and we still have a full day to go! 3K has some ending snow. Not much to start on it or HRRR unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The CMC was also showing big snow whether high ended Adv or low end WSW. It was the first one I saw actually....there was this map which was the last of the big snow maps where the back down start. The ICON had big snows south of Harrisburg as well. I like tracking multiple events in the short to medium range… let’s go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said: Pains me to say it but...I kind of see Wednesday turning into tomorrow's event. Anyone close to that SE edge may see any accumulations march steadily northwest. 12Z Euro already starting that move. Why bet against the seasonal trend at this point? I have mostly been liking what I’ve seen from guidance in terms of trending towards a stronger Canadian high that is in a decent position and doesn’t necessarily retreat rapidly either. Looking at 12z suite GFS had a stronger high than the Euro (1035ish vs 1030ish). Comparing ensemble means GEFS and EPS have similar strength to the high (1030ish) with the GEFS mean suggesting a somewhat better positioned high. The Canadian suite is interesting, the op manages to be the furthest west solution while the ensemble mean is in line with the others and is most suggestive of transferring a low to the Delmarva coast. The Euro ensemble has some clustering as well. Obviously, if this managed to secondary that far down the coast.. that would fare well for extending frozen/mixed precip in C-PA. Even without much transfer to the coast, I feel there should be enough of a wedge in place initially to see measurable snow (at least 1”+) in all of the LSV. Globals don’t always see CAD the best, especially more at range. So it will be interesting to see how the short range high res models handle things when we get to that point. Right now, the ensemble blends seem pretty good in terms of mean placement of the major features. We still have some time for getting details sorted out. GEFS: EPS v Canadian ensemble 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I like tracking multiple events in the short to medium range… let’s go! They are lined up like a Choo Choo train. I personally am not feeling tomorrow to be much, but the rest are cautiously exciting and it's the best 4-5 prospective storm lineup in a while IMO (on the maligned GFS.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 One thing I noticed it did not get as warm as NWS had forecasted 41 was forecasted only made it to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 47 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I like tracking multiple events in the short to medium range… let’s go! Good stuff Blizz! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 42 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I have mostly been liking what I’ve seen from guidance in terms of trending towards a stronger Canadian high that is in a decent position and doesn’t necessarily retreat rapidly either. Looking at 12z suite GFS had a stronger high than the Euro (1035ish vs 1030ish). Comparing ensemble means GEFS and EPS have similar strength to the high (1030ish) with the GEFS mean suggesting a somewhat better positioned high. The Canadian suite is interesting, the op manages to be the furthest west solution while the ensemble mean is in line with the others and is most suggestive of transferring a low to the Delmarva coast. The Euro ensemble has some clustering as well. Obviously, if this managed to secondary that far down the coast.. that would fare well for extending frozen/mixed precip in C-PA. Even without much transfer to the coast, I feel there should be enough of a wedge in place initially to see measurable snow (at least 1”+) in all of the LSV. Globals don’t always see CAD the best, especially more at range. So it will be interesting to see how the short range high res models handle things when we get to that point. Right now, the ensemble blends seem pretty good in terms of mean placement of the major features. We still have some time for getting details sorted out. GEFS: EPS v Canadian ensemble Great point about the Canadian High. Hopefully it keeps trending better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 Happy hour GFS looks good for both events. Here is tomorrow into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 Here is the Happy Hour GFS Wednesday snow thump snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2023 Author Share Posted January 21, 2023 Here are the combined 2 event total by Thursday am. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Happy hour GFS looks good for both events. Here is tomorrow into Monday All of that accum down here is on the backend. Most likely fraudulent but trend is interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 22, 2023 Author Share Posted January 22, 2023 18z Euro is coming back around for tomorrow for the Harrisburg area on to the north & west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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