Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Nice front end Wednesday thump for most of CTP north of Rt. 30.

Warning level Wednesday snow for MDT this Happy Hour run!

This map is just for the Wednesday storm period.

[paweather]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Happy Hour fun

 

Now that is a cheers!!!

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the combined 18z storm snow total for both events through Thursday am.

This looks a lot like the 1994 type of storm gradient that was mentioned by @psuhoffman recently.

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the combined 18z storm snow total for both events through Thursday am.

This looks a lot like the 1994 type of storm gradient that was mentioned by @psuhoffman recently.

I’m on the line don’t like it lol

[Blizzard of 93]

35 minutes ago, paweather said:

I’m on the line don’t like it lol

The 6 inch line looks good for the lands of Lebanon.

[pawatch]

I don’t think this far along in the season beggars can be to choosey.    

 

[canderson]

35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6 inch line looks good for the lands of Lebanon.

To be fair @paweather has never seen anything 6” long soooooo  

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

To be fair @paweather has never seen anything 6” long soooooo  

Wow

[Bubbler86]

Drought watch recinded 

 

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2023/01/drought-watch-lifted-for-5-pa-counties.html

[canderson]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wow

I’m bored and the weather sucks - sorry, love ya paweather!

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Drought watch recinded 

 

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2023/01/drought-watch-lifted-for-5-pa-counties.html

Great….I was losing sleep over this….Lol!

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GEFS improved for Wednesday and shows the low transferring to Delaware.

The front end thump improved.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 18z GEFS snow map for the Wednesday event period.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the 18z GEFS snow map for the Wednesday event period.

The 12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble also had a decent front end thump for most of CTP.

Here are the their snow maps for just the Wednesday event.

[paweather]

35 minutes ago, canderson said:

To be fair @paweather has never seen anything 6” long soooooo  

Haha!! True.

[WmsptWx]

Great….I was losing sleep over this….Lol!

Nightmares of drought ruin many a vacation to Kazakhstan or wherever you wind up next.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great….I was losing sleep over this….Lol!

Are you sure it was not the 0z euro taking your sleep?  Lol

[paweather]

48 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’m bored and the weather sucks - sorry, love ya paweather!

It’s all good!!!

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the combined 18z storm snow total for both events through Thursday am.

This looks a lot like the 1994 type of storm gradient that was mentioned by @psuhoffman recently.

 

Yea it’s a similar type setup but I don’t know how the direct comparison is going to end up panning out. It will almost certainly be a warmer version of that type of gradient pattern, at least with the next couple events upcoming the next 5-7 days. The Feb ‘94 gradient pattern was preceded by a really snowy and frigid January. Yesterday and the current date in 1994 had all-time record cold and lows from -10 to -25ºF over most of the commonwealth. Probably a bit understated to say that we don’t quite have that kind of airmass coming into this stormy period. We still don’t have much anomalous Canadian cold yet through these next couple events. Getting some high pressure set up prior to the Wednesday event should at least help get the O-fer the winter crowd in here their first measurable snow if not first 1”+ event. 

Basically the possible difference I’m trying to lay out here (at least to start) is that gradient pattern was attacking much colder available air and an established snowpack. The current upcoming pattern is going to have to establish pack in the upper Ohio Valley, lower lakes, and our region where there is currently zero snow. So while I see the next two events getting a lot of that done, some portion of our southern tier is probably going to be part of the gradient zone between snow/mix and predominantly rain vs Feb 94’s which delivered a bunch of ice/sleet events well down into the Mid-Atl region (DC/northern VA/etc) with a much colder available airmass. Models actually establish some anomalous Canadian cold toward the week 2 timeframe with some SE ridging eventually trying to persist but with better cold available trying to press from Canada. So that week 2 timeframe could end up more favorable overall for the LSV and probably northern Mid-Atlantic for frozen events if we keep an active pattern. 

[Blizzard of 93]

21 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

Yea it’s a similar type setup but I don’t know how the direct comparison is going to end up panning out. It will almost certainly be a warmer version of that type of gradient pattern, at least with the next couple events upcoming the next 5-7 days. The Feb ‘94 gradient pattern was preceded by a really snowy and frigid January. Yesterday and the current date in 1994 had all-time record cold and lows from -10 to -25ºF over most of the commonwealth. Probably a bit understated to say that we don’t quite have that kind of airmass coming into this stormy period. We still don’t have much anomalous Canadian cold yet through these next couple events. Getting some high pressure set up prior to the Wednesday event should at least help get the O-fer the winter crowd in here their first measurable snow if not first 1”+ event. 

Basically the possible difference I’m trying to lay out here (at least to start) is that gradient pattern was attacking much colder available air and an established snowpack. The current upcoming pattern is going to have to establish pack in the upper Ohio Valley, lower lakes, and our region where there is currently zero snow. So while I see the next two events getting a lot of that done, some portion of our southern tier is probably going to be part of the gradient zone between snow/mix and predominantly rain vs Feb 94’s which delivered a bunch of ice/sleet events well down into the Mid-Atl region (DC/northern VA/etc) with a much colder available airmass. Models actually establish some anomalous Canadian cold toward the week 2 timeframe with some SE ridging eventually trying to persist but with better cold available trying to press from Canada. So that week 2 timeframe could end up more favorable overall for the LSV and probably northern Mid-Atlantic for frozen events if we keep an active pattern. 

Good point about the main difference from 1994 being a lack of cold air.

The snow look for next week on most models takes you from Warning level snow to next to nothing over a short distance. Hopefully we all cash in somehow this week.

[GrandmasterB]

0Z NAM a tick colder Sunday night. Not a big difference but if you’re a hopeless snow tracker it’s…something?

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

0Z NAM a tick colder Sunday night. Not a big difference but if you’re a hopeless snow tracker it’s…something?

So rain and 34 instead of rain and 35?

[GrandmasterB]

Just now, canderson said:

So rain and 34 instead of rain and 35?

That’s the something!

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Drought watch recinded 

 

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2023/01/drought-watch-lifted-for-5-pa-counties.html

that was a huge mistake. Groundwater/streamlevels will be at record lows by May in this crappy but weak La Nina pattern. No snow base for available soil moisture recovery and maintaining base flows plus the ground is not frozen.  Warm sunny days in March- April  above 80 degrees will teach those hydrologists. I guess they forgot to  look at 2001 to 2002 analogs for the transition period from a weak La Nina to an El Nino year. The setup is almost identical to this year. Allentown only received 26 in of snow in 2002 before going into the worst drought for the area. We stand at one inch of snow now with some areas of the Lehigh Valley seeing nothing. I have not more than one inch of rain since early december in any event. By the way, have there been any years where there were no Nor'easters in the winter? We are heading in that direction too.

 

[Bubbler86]

21 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

That’s the something!

Helps MDT stay under 10 AN for the month. 

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

that was a huge mistake. Groundwater/streamlevels will be at record lows by May in this crappy but weak La Nina pattern. No snow base for available soil moisture recovery and maintaining base flows plus the ground is not frozen.  Warm sunny days in March- April  above 80 degrees will teach those hydrologists. I guess they forgot to  look at 2001 to 2002 analogs for the transition period from a weak La Nina to an El Nino year. The setup is almost identical to this year. Allentown only received 26 in of snow in 2002 before going into the worst drought for the area. We stand at one inch of snow now with some areas of the Lehigh Valley seeing nothing. I have not more than one inch of rain since early december in any event. By the way, have there been any years where there were no Nor'easters in the winter? We are heading in that direction too.

 

I am right there with you on this.  A dry April to June will eliminate any overabundance of rain/snow being received now.    They probably have specific criteria for the watch that was no longer met but it would not take long in early summer to crank it back up.  

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am right there with you on this.  A dry April to June will eliminate any overabundance of rain/snow being received now.    They probably have specific criteria for the watch that was no longer met but it would not take long in early summer to crank it back up.  

Might as well keep a permanent drought Watch…lol….epic torch & never ending drought…. ALEET, ALEET!

[Blizzard of 93]

25 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

that was a huge mistake. Groundwater/streamlevels will be at record lows by May in this crappy but weak La Nina pattern. No snow base for available soil moisture recovery and maintaining base flows plus the ground is not frozen.  Warm sunny days in March- April  above 80 degrees will teach those hydrologists. I guess they forgot to  look at 2001 to 2002 analogs for the transition period from a weak La Nina to an El Nino year. The setup is almost identical to this year. Allentown only received 26 in of snow in 2002 before going into the worst drought for the area. We stand at one inch of snow now with some areas of the Lehigh Valley seeing nothing. I have not more than one inch of rain since early december in any event. By the way, have there been any years where there were no Nor'easters in the winter? We are heading in that direction too.

 

Yes, many Winters have not had a Nor’Easter in the Winter.

Also, We still have 2 full months of Winter to  go…there are many chapters yet to unfold.

Plenty of time to do a Winter review in early April.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, many Winters have not had a Nor’Easter in the Winter.

Also, We still have 2 full months of Winter to  go…there are many chapters yet to unfold.

Plenty of time to do a Winter review in early April.

 

Also, an 80 degree day in March & April is very rare in PA.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Might as well keep a permanent drought Watch…lol….epic torch & never ending drought…. ALEET, ALEET!

Hard to remember a summer in the last 5 where the LSV has not had at least D0 or D1.    Fortunately, not severe recently.  Since July, MDT has been below norms qpf wise 5 out of 6 months (all except  Dec)  and they are below in Jan right now though I suspect they may catch up in the next week.  They finished the second half of 2022 at a 4.5" deficit.   That was coming off a great Spring so not a big deal, but it feels like it has rained a lot lately and really has not.