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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s nice to see “snow likely” in my CTP forecast for early Sunday am.

Saturday Night
A chance of rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. 
Sunday
Snow likely before 7am, then rain and snow likely between 7am and 10am, then rain likely after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Let’s do it Blizz take next week off we need your good luck :D

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The 0z Canadian still has the Thursday Winter storm chance.

It has the low in the Midwest come to a halt because of the blocking & develops a low off of the VA coast that crawls northeast as it strengthens and draws in colder air to CTP. This run verbatim has mixed precip going over to snow for most of us.

Hopefully the Euro will agree later on.

Here is the 0z Canadian for Thursday.

C7E9AC6F-BB7D-4759-A8F2-AABEEAAD15FF.png

6A2748CA-2204-452D-9B14-725CC2115800.png

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GFS and CMC not as impressed with potential for next week (GFS slides by to the south and CMC not as juiced as the Euro and warmer, both do drop some accum snow just nowhere near the Euro)  but GFS spins up an LSV special Sat-Sun of next weekend.    A system intensifies in the base of the trough and tucks into the Northeast Corridor. 

image.thumb.png.216376735a8c02bd0df7be0c98d79c22.png

 

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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS and CMC not as impressed with potential for next week (GFS slides by to the south and CMC not as juiced as the Euro and warmer, both do drop some accum snow just nowhere near the Euro)  but GFS spins up an LSV special Sat-Sun of next weekend.    A system intensifies in the base of the trough and tucks into the Northeast Corridor. 

image.thumb.png.216376735a8c02bd0df7be0c98d79c22.png

 

The 0z Canadian was plenty juiced with the coastal development, but had more mixed precip more southern PA. 
 

DBEFAC5C-7BEA-4C91-9BA4-1348E5DA2A8B.png

4D7C44CD-729F-4FFD-B15E-026A43B2D7A0.png

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Canadian was plenty juiced with the coastal development, but had more mixed precip more southern PA. 
 

 

 

Juiced is synonymous with qpf amounts and SLP mb's.   The CMC was about 3/4" total qpf (of which much is not snow in the LSV as you stated) while the Euro was close to double.   The Euro depiction of the SLP was about 8-10mb lower than the CMC which scoots the storm out faster. 

image.png.a5f62dcb33dd8c86fde404b2b7aa5215.png

 

 

 

image.thumb.png.45a1fbf563ef1d9c507dd30af15496f1.png

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Juiced is synonymous with qpf amounts and SLP mb's.   The CMC was about 3/4" total qpf (of which much is not snow in the LSV as you stated) while the Euro was close to double.   The Euro depiction of the SLP was about 8-10mb lower than the CMC which scoots the storm out faster. 

image.png.a5f62dcb33dd8c86fde404b2b7aa5215.png

 

 

 

image.thumb.png.45a1fbf563ef1d9c507dd30af15496f1.png

Good point, right now the Canadian is the mid ground between the GFS minor event & the Euro Major storm.

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15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Amazing 0z Euro run for the Thursday/Friday potential coastal storm.

The storm crawls from the DelMarVa coast on Thursday evening to just off of the NJ coast by Friday evening.

What a great run for CTP. Let’s see what 12z brings today.

 

 

Definitely a NEISIS 3-4 potential as to that depiction.  Would be a classic for Dec.   #Blizzard of 22

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