Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: My lunch break today is not quite as good as yesterday, however, the 12z Euro still brings an Advisory level event for Sunday to all of CTP. Here are some more regional views of the Euro. The Euro also has the low lingering around until Monday off of the coast. Here is the 12z Euro snow map through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 12z Euro snow map through Monday. Not sure that much will be on the ground with these temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 The 12z Euro has a good front end thump next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro has a good front end thump next Wednesday. Here is the 12z Euro for just the next Wednesday storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 12z Euro for just the next Wednesday storm. Warning level for most of CTP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 Here is the Euro combined 2 storm total for both the Sunday & Wednesday events. I would sign up now for this….but I wouldn’t mind if yesterday’s Euro solution comes back in later runs this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 The 12z GFS & 12z Canadian still bring an Advisory level event to MDT and most of CTP Sunday into Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 @paweather - CTP just provided their PM update. They added a mix of rain/snow to grids for Sunday, lowered temps some, but mention in their discussion that it'll be a rainstorm SE with a mix across central PA. They also talk about next week and say that models showing a cutter "makes sense" given the alignment of the ridge axis off the west coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @paweather - CTP just provided their PM update. They added a mix of rain/snow to grids for Sunday, lowered temps some, but mention in their discussion that it'll be a rainstorm SE with a mix across central PA. They also talk about next week and say that models showing a cutter "makes sense" given the alignment of the ridge axis off the west coast. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z GFS & 12z Canadian still bring an Advisory level event to MDT and most of CTP Sunday into Monday. Still in Play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 0.89” of rainfall today, temp still 38ºF. Looks like most precip is done here until possibly fropa later this eve. Maybe can manage to score whatever upslope/LES that manages to blow off the Laurels tomorrow to go with the wind advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 18z NAM not backing down: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: 18z NAM not backing down: That is pure LOVE! for 6 hours LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: They also talk about next week and say that models showing a cutter "makes sense" given the alignment of the ridge axis off the west coast. Indeed, the classic benchmark for C-PA snowstorms is the ridge axis thru Boise, ID, which this doesn’t have. Although the Sunday system doesn’t either, I think the shortwave that dives into the SW behind it (which becomes the Wed storm) acts to eject that out instead of amplify.. which could explain the trend for Sunday to be a bit of a weaker system and one that gets to the coast easier. Even if Wed does cut, I think there will be a somewhat better antecedent cold air mass in place for that with enough high to the north to support frozen up front at least. GFS had the weakest high to the north to go with a dominant primary and thus had the least frozen/mix. Whatever secondary coastal low evolves will also dictate how long that can hold. Even the big Euro run yesterday featured a primary to a coastal secondary with this, the transfer just happened much faster and today’s run has a stronger primary that’s overall a bit further west today. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, paweather said: That is pure LOVE! for 6 hours LOL. It's important to note that temps are still above freezing while it's snowing: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's important to note that temps are still above freezing while it's snowing: You could have put this note on auto post and been right more days them wrong as to modeled blue we have seen on models. It is a recurring theme this year. So many accums show on models with 2M temps above freezing (most of which never came to reality.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: your snow dome has been replaced with a magnet lol...seems like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You could have put this note on auto post and been right more days them wrong as to modeled blue we have seen on models. It is a recurring theme this year. So many accums show on models with 2M temps above freezing (most of which never came to reality.) With the bulk of the precip at night, with rates it'll accumulate to some degree if temps are close enough - we can get a paste bomb at 33, perhaps 34 but anything above that will be Snow TV in 4D. (drip, drip, drip, and drip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: With the bulk of the precip at night, with rates it'll accumulate to some degree if temps are close enough - we can get a paste bomb at 33, perhaps 34 but anything above that will be Snow TV in 4D. (drip, drip, drip, and drip) And unless the temps are going down post snow, the snow is gone anyway during the day. Are we down to hoping for April snow in Jan (not directed at you)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And unless the temps are going down post snow, the snow is gone anyway during the day. Are we down to hoping for April snow in Jan (not directed at you)? Given that some areas have had little to no snow yet at all - I think at least some would? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 HH GFS time for it to be Happy and cheery cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I have seen snow accumulate 15” at 35F in Jersey. It was during night hours.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Wow, -81F in Siberia. Coldest in 31 years.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 54 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I have seen snow accumulate 15” at 35F in Jersey. It was during night hours. . To this point, I was not suggesting we should not get snow at any point vs. the larger question of has our climate come to this....April snows in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 The third storm on the GFS has a chance. Better blocking, cold air available. That one, has my attention.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Friday will be windy af around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 To this point, I was not suggesting we should not get snow at any point vs. the larger question of has our climate come to this....April snows in January. I think it’s a little untimely bad luck and the effects of a new climate regime.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Friday will be windy af around these parts. Canderson winds strike again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I think it’s a little untimely bad luck and the effects of a new climate regime. . On that comment, MDT is still 9.2 AN as of today. That is pretty incredible 2/3 into the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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