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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

My lunch break today is not quite as good as yesterday, however, the 12z Euro still brings an Advisory level event for Sunday to all of CTP.

Here are some more regional views of the Euro. The Euro also has the low lingering around until Monday off of the coast.

B0C05A2B-0A09-4E26-8297-694BCDD46542.png

556B454A-3516-4191-BA1E-689009CC3BAE.png

6DA64C92-2A10-405C-A74F-D59C078DEE95.png

Here is the 12z Euro snow map through Monday.

92E43A99-C979-4A88-A36C-DE1F12409485.png

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@paweather - CTP just provided their PM update. They added a mix of rain/snow to grids for Sunday, lowered temps some, but mention in their discussion that it'll be a rainstorm SE with a mix across central PA.

They also talk about next week and say that models showing a cutter "makes sense" given the alignment of the ridge axis off the west coast.

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@paweather - CTP just provided their PM update. They added a mix of rain/snow to grids for Sunday, lowered temps some, but mention in their discussion that it'll be a rainstorm SE with a mix across central PA.

They also talk about next week and say that models showing a cutter "makes sense" given the alignment of the ridge axis off the west coast.

Thanks!

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48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

They also talk about next week and say that models showing a cutter "makes sense" given the alignment of the ridge axis off the west coast.

Indeed, the classic benchmark for C-PA snowstorms is the ridge axis thru Boise, ID, which this doesn’t have.

image.thumb.png.8d275a98bb8be417dee5bff3f2419926.png

Although the Sunday system doesn’t either, I think the shortwave that dives into the SW behind it (which becomes the Wed storm) acts to eject that out instead of amplify.. which could explain the trend for Sunday to be a bit of a weaker system and one that gets to the coast easier. 

Even if Wed does cut, I think there will be a somewhat better antecedent cold air mass in place for that with enough high to the north to support frozen up front at least. GFS had the weakest high to the north to go with a dominant primary and thus had the least frozen/mix. Whatever secondary coastal low evolves will also dictate how long that can hold. Even the big Euro run yesterday featured a primary to a coastal secondary with this, the transfer just happened much faster and today’s run has a stronger primary that’s overall a bit further west today. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's important to note that temps are still above freezing while it's snowing:

 

You could have put this note on auto post and been right more days them wrong as to modeled blue we have seen on models.  It is a recurring theme this year.   So many accums show on models with 2M temps above freezing (most of which never came to reality.)

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You could have put this note on auto post and been right more days them wrong as to modeled blue we have seen on models.  It is a recurring theme this year.   So many accums show on models with 2M temps above freezing (most of which never came to reality.)

With the bulk of the precip at night, with rates it'll accumulate to some degree if temps are close enough - we can get a paste bomb at 33, perhaps 34 but anything above that will be Snow TV in 4D. (drip, drip, drip, and drip) 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

With the bulk of the precip at night, with rates it'll accumulate to some degree if temps are close enough - we can get a paste bomb at 33, perhaps 34 but anything above that will be Snow TV in 4D. (drip, drip, drip, and drip) 

And unless the temps are going down post snow, the snow is gone anyway during the day.   Are we down to hoping for April snow in Jan (not directed at you)?

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