paweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @paweather, get your GFS PBP going! Coming in at 132! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 You're going to like the 12z GFS for the 14th to 15th. It has a legitimate CAD signature through HR120. If you go to the NCEP site and look at the surface and even up tp 925mb, it's pretty strong and there's a fresh cold airmass to our NE. Not too shabby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 138 snow is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 144 off of the SE coast minor event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, paweather said: 144 off of the SE coast minor event. Yea, snowing in NC with that type of block was not good when I just looked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Sheared apart. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, Superstorm said: Sheared apart . Yep, Block:1 LSV Sig Snow: 0 (for this one run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, snowing in NC with that type of block was not good when I just looked. -PNA allows the storm strengthen over the central US, then coastal doesn't get going because of Atlantic blocking. A lot of moving pieces here so don't expect consensus probably until 00z Monday runs. Bottom line up front: stormy, cooler pattern emerging with several opportunities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: -PNA allows the storm strengthen over the central US, then coastal doesn't get going because of Atlantic blocking. A lot of moving pieces here so don't expect consensus probably until 00z Monday runs. Bottom line up front: stormy, cooler pattern emerging with several opportunities. Yea, I am not making any forecast or definitive statements, just a model PBP on one specific storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I am not making any forecast or definitive statements, just a model PBP on one specific storm. Yup. This time last year it was mid 50s with pacific puke. We're looking better this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: -PNA allows the storm strengthen over the central US, then coastal doesn't get going because of Atlantic blocking. A lot of moving pieces here so don't expect consensus probably until 00z Monday runs. Bottom line up front: stormy, cooler pattern emerging with several opportunities. Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I am not making any forecast or definitive statements, just a model PBP on one specific storm. Same here just model PBP and I agree Eskimo we have plenty of time for changes good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12z GEFS thru HR156 have a weak coastal low and everyone gets at least some light snow. That's pretty good. Onto the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Take this and run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Nice way to start winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: Nice way to start winter. Indeed. At this point, we want to watch the 850/500 mb evolution. Wait until 00z Monday to start worrying about the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Fantasy Land: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, paweather said: Fantasy Land: Storms and rumors of storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The Euro tucks...not ideal for the LSV but most of the rest of PA is in for golden white abundance. The snowfall maps shows some decent totals at the northern edge of the LSV and some accumnulating other areas. A positive trend from 0Z though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Euro tucks...not ideal for the LSV but most of the rest of PA is in for golden white abundance. The snowfall maps shows some decent totals at the northern edge of the LSV and some accumnulating other areas. A positive trend from 0Z though. Well we are in play that is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Well we are in play that is good. Queue the "we should not be looking at model to model runs" chatter. LOL. or "it's good to be in the game". LOL. Those are both top responses when more than 2-3 days away. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Queue the "we should not be looking at model to model runs" chatter. LOL. or "it's good to be in the game". LOL. Those are both top responses when more than 2-3 days away. LOL. Every year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Thanks all for the pbp and analysis - I am absolutely swamped and have no time to look at anything so it’s much appreciated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Thye cold air potential on the models (Op's and ensembles) is quite impressive the last two weeks of the month. Not necessarily for depth/extreme of the cold in PA vs. the potential for such a large part of the nation to be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 If only….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Behind the chances for this week, we turn into a legit -NAO/-AO and neutral to slightly +PNA, with favorable EPO. No two ways about, we are looking decent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, Superstorm said: If only…. . Geezus!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Behind the chances for this week, we turn into a legit -NAO/-AO and neutral to slightly +PNA, with favorable EPO. No two ways about, we are looking decent. This has the chance to be an awesome couple of weeks as we approach the holidays! Lots of late nights of tracking on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 First things first, we need to see if we can score a minor event overnight Saturday into Sunday. Many models have show that the PA turnpike on north have the chance for a little snow. Let’s see what the 0z runs bring tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 It’s nice to see “snow likely” in my CTP forecast for early Sunday am. Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday Snow likely before 7am, then rain and snow likely between 7am and 10am, then rain likely after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 ESPN announcer: DeAnthony Melton, also known as Shake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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