Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 GFS doesn't look good at all to me at 102... Edit: Bubber is all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Ouch....LOL. PBP is over for PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Ouch....LOL. PBP is over for PA. Yeah - at 108 nearly all of PA is raining. Storm is centered just east of Annapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Yeah - at 108 nearly all of PA is raining. Storm is centered just east of Annapolis. Flooder. Would expect some 2-4" totals in that depiction. Output says 1-2" but Gulf is open. On to mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Flooder. Would expect some 2-4" totals in that depiction. Output says 1-2" but Gulf is open. On to mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Flooder. Would expect some 2-4" totals in that depiction. Output says 1-2" but Gulf is open. On to mid week. I might have to take a Flyer on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I might have to take a Flyer on this run. Lose your Hart to head for the crease in downtown Philly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 GFS looks promising for round 2 at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1012 Low over the FL Panhandle at 141. That is one way to not get an App runner. Edit-Ugh, inland low takes control over next 6 hours...heading up the spine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 1012 Low over the FL Panhandle at 141. That is one way to not get an App runner. Edit-Ugh, inland low takes control over next 6 hours...heading up the spine. At 150 I'm not liking what it's selling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I’m tossing the GFS simply because I didn’t care for the outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Heavy snow over most of PA at 159. High blocked the app runner and sent the low across VA. Storm 2 is a major hit but relies on a fantasy type path to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 At 162 pretty much everyone outside of Lanco is getting hammered: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Heavy snow over all of PA at 159. High blocked the app runner and sent the low across VA. Low made it as far north as the Ohio River - a little too far north for the southern tier. A shunt just a little farther south would have made almost all of us happy. (2nd storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: At 162 pretty much everyone outside of Lanco is getting hammered: The GFS final snow tally does not seem to match this panel. Admit there is some mix in there but a bit off IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Low made it as far north as the Ohio River - a little too far north for the southern tier. A shunt just a little farther south would have made almost all of us happy. (2nd storm) I just posted that Lanco is all snow at 159. Snow map a bit off. But I agree it is way too far north to take this depiction to Hart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I just posted that Lanco is all snow at 159. Snow map a bit off. But I agree it is way too far north to take this depiction to Hart. I don't know if I'm to give you the laughing or thanks emoji. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I don't know if I'm to give you the laughing or thanks emoji. Sounds like a situation for the Suggestion Box...Dear Invision, allow multiple emoji's per post. Signed Your Friend, Maytowntrainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Overall, I truly thought trends suggested this was going to be a real HH for the GFS but was way off....HH, farm show week, etc....no longer work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Flooder. Would expect some 2-4" totals in that depiction. Output says 1-2" but Gulf is open. On to mid week. It’s the GFS hanging with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, windycutter said: Interesting! Storm 3.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windycutter Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Storm 3.... Some serious cold coming in if it is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Storm 3.... That secondary precip field off Hatteras will tend to pull the LP 985 SE closer to the coast in future runs---Chesapeake Crabber to me. Almost in the sweet spot for E PA That looks to be the best shot for me for some snow in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Moving to storm 3 seems a bit of a downer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Usually the ensembles are east of the OP (for whatever reason) but there are quite a few lows WELL east of the OP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, GrandmasterB said: Usually the ensembles are east of the OP (for whatever reason) but there are quite a few lows WELL east of the OP. We are in good shape then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Overall, I truly thought trends suggested this was going to be a real HH for the GFS but was way off....HH, farm show week, etc....no longer work. GFS wasn’t super far off from 12z (it’s 12z run and vs Euro) in terms of its coastal track, which came a little bit further inside at 18z. It still should have hung decent snow on central/western PA on that track. The big difference was thermals. Notably warmer aloft preceding the event than the Euro, which may have to do with it holding more of a surface reflection west of the Apps coming up and pushing just enough of a warm nose into all of southern PA to make it messy and delay a changeover back to snow as the column cools with the deepening coastal low. It is an important thing to consider with this system, as we won’t have much surface high support and will be relying more on where the gradient is and the developing coastal low to eventually start pulling favorable thermals back toward itself as it quickly comes up the coast. These are the details to get sorted out the next couple days but I’m sure it’ll take getting into NAM/HuRRR range to really get some kind of good handle. Big thing for now is at least the GFS continues to develop the decent coastal low getting to the Delmarva region. This had about been the only model that consistently wasn’t doing that (keeping primary west of the Apps to the Lower Lakes) the last few days until today. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Usually the ensembles are east of the OP (for whatever reason) but there are quite a few lows WELL east of the OP. HAHA the GFS operational has no clue. It may be the worst global out there right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I think I made it pretty clear how I felt about long and mid range computer forecasting for the area when Nanny was still working all of CPA, but why jump on a horse with two broken legs when you have ponies to ride ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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