paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 12z EPS mean low track & snow map. The snow line keeps moving south east over the last few runs & even gets Lancaster into the blue this run. Now onto HH GFS. Move with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Boy this sure escalated quickly today. I had been reluctant to really pull the trigger on Sunday’s event until I saw some kind of clarity between the GFS/GEFS and everything else, especially in this situation where the GFS was simply taking a primary cutter west of the Apps with little or too late secondary development for us ( a viable outcome considering how the season has gone). Definitely significant that it finally came in line for the most part with Euro/Canadian guidance that had predominantly a coastal low. Presuming that holds in ensuing cycles… focus can start on how much of C-PA this may impact with snow. I still see the LSV (esp Adams/York/Lancaster) as fairly vulnerable in this setup. A slightly inside track from VA into the Delmarva/southern Jersey is would likely straddle the R/S line very close or into southern PA (LSV) during at least a portion of the storm. Obviously a bit more progressive/SE would help that particular area. Those details will get sorted out the next couple days. The next one (25th/26th) is definitely one to watch as well, as that will likely take a similar track coming fairly quickly behind Sunday’s system (3-4 days). The gradient might shift a tad south for that system as well. This is a prime opportunity to score once or twice in the next week. There’s likely to be a swath of big snows on the ground for whoever is lucky enough to see it delivered from both systems. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Kids around much of PA are doing the math on the somewhat rare chance....Big Snow Sun into Monday means no school Mon or Tue and then another big snow Wed means the week is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 CTP is not looking at the EURO doesn't seem to care outside of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 CTP is not looking at the EURO doesn't seem to care outside of the GFS. That seems counterproductive. The GFS is horrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, paweather said: CTP is not looking at the EURO doesn't seem to care outside of the GFS. It would be risky of them to throw up too many alerts at this stage....especially for the LSV. Would you bet a Benajamin that you will have 19" new inches of snow 7 days from now :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Any word on the EPS - I thought I saw somewhere that it's not nearly as good as the OP for the first storm, but I cannot confirm that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Never mind - I see that Blizz posted it. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: That seems counterproductive. The GFS is horrible. They are following the theory of that article you posted. Hype level min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, paweather said: CTP is not looking at the EURO doesn't seem to care outside of the GFS. If you were reading the long term portion of their discussion, that has yet to be updated this afternoon (still yesterdays disco). Edit: They had a bigger long term yesterday which also included tomorrows system and removed that and kept the portion of the discussion referencing the Sunday system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, MAG5035 said: If you were reading the long term portion of their discussion, that has yet to be updated this afternoon (still yesterdays disco). Gotcha. Didn't realize that. Thanks Mag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 They are following the theory of that article you posted. Hype level min. That’s always what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, paweather said: Gotcha. Didn't realize that. Thanks Mag! Your welcome I edited my post but they had a bigger long term yesterday talking about tomorrows system and the Sunday system and all they did was remove the part about tomorrow system today (now in the short term) and kept the part about Sunday there. I’d expect an update for that section in the next couple hours, as they usually do in the later afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Kids around much of PA are doing the math on the somewhat rare chance....Big Snow Sun into Monday means no school Mon or Tue and then another big snow Wed means the week is toast. Snow days died from Covid. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I love to extrapolate the 84hr NAM as much as the next weenie, and the 18Z sure looks good at 84. (Source: am weenie) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Snow days died from Covid. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk The schools here do close re: remote learning has not happened much. Lots of the District Admin is against any remote learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 28 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I love to extrapolate the 84hr NAM as much as the next weenie, and the 18Z sure looks good at 84. (Source: am weenie) Is AM Weenie at all related to AM Weather? But I agree, until we have the Nam this is all just fake talk. Nam or bust. 500 Low/trough west of the Surface that is developing but I do not see a path for it to climb too much there (a good thing for snow here.) Of course, if it gets to the DelMarVa that is not good for the LSV with the current cold regime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The schools here do close re: remote learning has not happened much. Lots of the District Admin is against any remote learning. Same in Tamaqua. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Same in Tamaqua. My local school district (Waynesboro) was dead set against closing at all even in the height of Covid. They did close some to go along with the state but masks were never enforced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Well the next week is looking pretty fun. Chances of 2 snowstorms back to back? I actually like those odds. Makes it more likely that at least one of them will happen. We'll still have to see if either will materialize but considering we're within 5 days with one of those storms it definitely has me interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 HH Icon backed away from its dry powder for LSV 12Z run but it is still in the game. It actually looks like @MAG5035 painted some of the panels after his latest writeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Good Ole DT changed his tone again. Now he's calling for accumulating snow for Pa. Except the southeast portion of Pa. I didn't know he waffled so much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, mahantango#1 said: Good Ole DT changed his tone again. Now he's calling for accumulating snow for Pa. Except the southeast portion of Pa. I didn't know he waffled so much. Sometimes he gets stuck on one model and rides it until death. Sounds like he is model reading like a lot of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Well the next week is looking pretty fun. Chances of 2 snowstorms back to back? I actually like those odds. Makes it more likely that at least one of them will happen. We'll still have to see if either will materialize but considering we're within 5 days with one of those storms it definitely has me interested Yeah, same. Nice to track a tangible threat…well two actually! Hopefully we all cash on one of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: My local school district (Waynesboro) was dead set against closing at all even in the height of Covid. They did close some to go along with the state but masks were never enforced. I have a newfound respect for Waynesboro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: HH Icon backed away from its dry powder for LSV 12Z run but it is still in the game. It actually looks like @MAG5035 painted some of the panels after his latest writeup. 18z ICON looks somewhat weaker as it exits the coast - 12z was a little more wound up and was throwing heavier precip back into the eastern half of PA. With very marginal temps - weaker storm - lighter precip - less white gold and more light rain. (generalization) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I have a newfound respect for Waynesboro. LOL, just do not carry that respect into walking around downtown at night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 18z ICON looks somewhat weaker as it exits the coast - 12z was a little more wound up and was throwing heavier precip back into the eastern half of PA. With very marginal temps - weaker storm - lighter precip - less white gold and more light rain. (generalization) Yea, sounds like a good call. The most important HH GFS of 2023 so far is rolling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 At 90 the GFS has a low in the West Northern GOM very close to where it was at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 GFS is not going to be Happy to at least start the system. Rain over half of PA at 102 as the Low gets N/W of the 12Z position...near Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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