pasnownut Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 True Central approved of the Kanook model as well. As stated earlier, I'm on the outside for this one, but if I were in central/northern pa, i'd be watchin this bad boy. Im not parsin over specifics at 4 days, but there's enough decent looks to not throw this one aside...and compared to where we've been its a refreshing change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, looking a little similar. The ICON is totally on its own minoring out the first wave and forming a new one off the Carolinas. Yes - other 2 models shoot the primary up the spine too far north for us before the reform off Dewey Beach DE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: What say you Icon? That is one great "dream" map!!!! Please come true ICON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes - other 2 models shoot the primary up the spine too far north for us before the reform off Dewey Beach DE. And next weeks storm is following the same type of path. Less and less snow as we get closer and closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, paweather said: That is one great "dream" map!!!! Please come true ICON! We roll PA Dutch Style. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 and furthermore, the GFS in the last 4 runs has trended notably further SE on each run. Go loop for yourselves. Nice nooners. Been a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: and furthermore, the GFS in the last 4 runs has trended notably further SE on each run. Go loop for yourselves. Nice nooners. Been a while. I agree. GFS is definitely further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: And next weeks storm is following the same type of path. Less and less snow as we get closer and closer. I'm not used to you being this down - when you're not feeling it, things often don't go our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 and if thats not enough, same areas that get hit on the Churchgoersunite special...go look at the GooFuS for mid next week. verbatim you get shellacked mid next week. Again, its nice to see better looks and thats all I'm taking from it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm not used to you being this down - when you're not feeling it, things often don't go our way. It would take an Icon like solution for most of the LSV to score. There is no cold air here to fight any SW component in the wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It would take an Ico like solution for most of the LSV to score. There is no cold air here to fight any SW component in the wind direction. Agree. If we had an cold air prior to both of those events, we would at least be looking at thump to rain/drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and if thats not enough, same areas that get hit on the Churchgoersunite special...go look at the GooFuS for mid next week. verbatim you get shellacked mid next week. Again, its nice to see better looks and thats all I'm taking from it for now. Wet or white going to be a fun time tracking over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Euro and Icon lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Wet or white going to be a fun time tracking over the next week. Thats the big reason many are here...correct. Rug may once again be pulled out....but if so, it wont be for the same reasons, as the PAC is starting its transition away from trough to ridging. THATS my takeaway, but for some, it doesnt matter how you fail...its still the same (and rather understandable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Has der Ikon ever been right? LolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Has der Ikon ever been right? Lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk A few years ago, it led the way on several app runner overrunning events, but it usually does flip back to other models when it is showing something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Has der Ikon ever been right? Lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk January 22nd and 23rd 2023 it had been right!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 January 22nd and 23rd 2023 it had been right!!!!Nostradamus? Is that you?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Nooners...Considerable cloudiness and 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Stolen from the MA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Cha Cha Cha Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 22 minutes ago, paweather said: Stolen from the MA thread. You going to bring home the Euro PBP? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 29 minutes ago, paweather said: Stolen from the MA thread. It's looping in the wrong direction...starting with 126 and ending with 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You going to bring home the Euro PBP? LOL. I don't have pivot point right now due to fraud issues with my card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: It's looping in the wrong direction...starting with 126 and ending with 114. The loop is from the last 3 runs of the model (0z, 6z, and 12z) for the same time stamp, which is 6z Monday morning. The loop shows that with each new run, the low is centered farther SE than the previous run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, paweather said: LOL. I don't have pivot point right now due to fraud issues with my card. It is free on pivot. Sign out. Sorry to hear about the fraud issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: The loop is from the last 3 runs of the model (0z, 6z, and 12z) for the same time stamp, which is 6z Monday morning. The loop shows that with each new run, the low is centered farther SE than the previous run. The GFS moving toward matching the other models which are also moving toward matching the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Superstorm said: Agree. If we had an cold air prior to both of those events, we would at least be looking at thump to rain/drizzle. Just a reminder of all of our spring snow events when its 50 the day before and a winter wonderland the next day. Not saying I like getting snow that way, but I'll take my chances in prime time climo w/ a storm south of our latitude...no matter the result. While its not south on every model, there is a trend in that direction. Guess we'll find out soon enough....or when the 18z GFS has it back in the UP of Michigan. flipppidy flop the model goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Just a reminder of all of our spring snow events when its 50 the day before and a winter wonderland the next day. Not saying I like getting snow that way, but I'll take my chances in prime time climo w/ a storm south of our latitude...no matter the result. While its not south on every model, there is a trend in that direction. Guess we'll find out soon enough....or when the 18z GFS has it back in the UP of Michigan. flipppidy flop the model goes.... No argument there. I was at least a little optimistic with the GFS ensemble runs. Let's see what Dr. No has to say about all this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: No argument there. I was at least a little optimistic with the GFS ensemble runs. Let's see what Dr. No has to say about all this. Almost there (out for 12Z) on the Euro, The highest the SLP climbed at 0Z was Central NC (at least when to our west) so that is the key I am watching for on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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