pasnownut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro continues to be steady by yet again tracking the Sunday pm low under PA bringing the chance for snow. Long way to go, but it’s good to see the Euro & GFS now coming to an agreement. Let’s hope that it holds and improves more this week. German house model now has similar look for this opportunity as well. GFS is an unmitigated dumpster fire. CMC is workable for much of true central/northers for next week. I'll be back in a few days.....in hopes that our pattern change thats been looking to start later this week starts throwing some better looks up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: 12z GFS goes back to the west again and rains on us for the 22nd/23rd system. Also cuts the next storm on the 26th and rains some more on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Canadian is almost 24 hours later than the GFS for the 23rd system, it also cuts and rains after a period of snow/mix up front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Canadian is almost 24 hours later than the GFS for the 23rd system, it also cuts and rains after a period of snow/mix up front. Like i said, better for true central/northers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: Like i said, better for true central/northers. Whelp month of January snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I was surprised to see that this has only been the 5th warmest January through the first half of the month, but the one thing that we haven't had is a couple of days of extreme (highs near or above 70) that we've had in a few years that are higher. Still, a remarkable turnaround considering some (but not all ) of us were shivering around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, paweather said: Whelp month of January snowless Lol, not according to the 12z Euro… It has been steady for the last 2 days delivering snow to most of us by next Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, not according to the 12z Euro… It has been steady for the last 2 days delivering snow to most of us by next Monday. He is letting his nerves get the best of him....8:15 tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Another real nice April day this January. Beautiful clear blue skies and 52. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: He is letting his nerves get the best of him....8:15 tonight. Makes sense…, I understand…good luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 45 minutes ago, canderson said: Another real nice April day this January. Beautiful clear blue skies and 52. Exactly! We got out & enjoyed the day at our local park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: He is letting his nerves get the best of him....8:15 tonight. Yeah for sure but it is typical time for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Great run of the 12z EPS for the advertised pattern for the last week of January. The southeast ridge is pushed well off to the south & east. Temperatures look to be bit below normal for us. This has the look of systems running from the south central states to off the coast of Virginia. Hopefully we can line up some moderate snow or snow to mix events for the last week of January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 The 12z EPS also ends well with the good look holding & colder temperatures remaining in day 15 at the end of the run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 hours ago, paweather said: Whelp month of January snowless yeah us lower susqu folks are not looking to good right now. Plenty of time for changes....better or worse, but hoping the GFS is on crack n we can find a way to score. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, not according to the 12z Euro… It has been steady for the last 2 days delivering snow to most of us by next Monday. having the Euro/CMC/Icon showing colder solutions is good to see. It'd be nice to see the GFS go back to being useless like we once knew it to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Turns out not all volcanic discharges are the same . Large Eruptions with high sulfur emissions cool the atmosphere . Large volcanic discharges with high water vapor emissions warm the atmosphere, and can do so for a much longer period than a cooling event, because water vapor is lighter than sulfur and will go much higher than other aerosols emitted by volcanoes . The Tonga eruption emitted very little sulfur compared to other large eruptions and discharged massive amounts of water vapor, both due to its geography. Probably not a great thing for winter on top of a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 The Tonga eruption only released 2% the amount of sulfur compared to the Mt Pinatubo eruption. Sulfur can help cancel out the effects of water vapor and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 31 minutes ago, pasnownut said: having the Euro/CMC/Icon showing colder solutions is good to see. It'd be nice to see the GFS go back to being useless like we once knew it to be... The GFS Op has been pretty useless, especially since they supposedly upgraded it a couple of months ago. Yesterday it was way west, then this morning at 6z the GFS had the Sunday/Monday low off of the DelMarVa just like the Euro has showed for the last several runs, but 12z & 18z wildly shifted way west again….0.0 consistency in the medium range! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 CTP seems interested in the Sunday chance. Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was surprised to see that this has only been the 5th warmest January through the first half of the month, but the one thing that we haven't had is a couple of days of extreme (highs near or above 70) that we've had in a few years that are higher. Still, a remarkable turnaround considering some (but not all ) of us were shivering around Christmas. they often promote warm seasons then average but hardly headline the very cold at all. like this fall it was one of the coolest I can remember but didnt talk at all about records. just daily about how cool it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Ruin said: they often promote warm seasons then average but hardly headline the very cold at all. like this fall it was one of the coolest I can remember but didnt talk at all about records. just daily about how cool it was. This fall was not cold at all. At least not in south central PA. Almost half of October was above average and remember just how hot it was the first 2 weeks of November? The only time it got really cold was around Christmas for a few days. Another thing that seems forgotten is averages increased 2 degrees all over the state because we're now using averages from 1990-2020. The old averages we used were 1980-2010 which were 2 degrees cooler on average than they are now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2023 Author Share Posted January 17, 2023 There is still no agreement in the major weather models for the Sunday/Monday storm chance. The 6z GFS still cuts the storm to Toronto bringing rain. The 0z Euro now shreds the system and slides it under us with a little light snow by Monday evening. The 0z Canadian has a compromise with snow to mix by Monday evening. I’m not focusing on much else beyond this period until this storm is resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 34 wet degrees this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 31 degrees and a sheet of ice. Need ice skates for my drive way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 9 hours ago, Ruin said: they often promote warm seasons then average but hardly headline the very cold at all. like this fall it was one of the coolest I can remember but didnt talk at all about records. just daily about how cool it was. You just can't trust government agencies or fellow citizens to keep track of temps, snow totals, or classified documents these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Looking at overnighters, I'm increasingly encouraged by the changes showing up aoa 100hrs+, as the PAC regime change starts to show and we get ridging popping up around the Aleutians which likely holds the key for better times as we can tap into the cooler temps. This isnt quite the look we want, but once we get out to 144 and beyond one can see that cause/effect in the conus. By 180 pattern becomes established...and chances should come. Lets hope it holds. Better for the show to start late than never. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 34 wet degrees this AM Saw a gorgeous rainbow on my way to work this morning, but had no rain at home nor on my journey to the office. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Sure wish it would warm up out here. Highs only in the 50's for the next 7 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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