Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I need to take my trash out later, but I’m really not sure if my trash cans will still be there! Update…. I did not lose any trash cans! One was displaced about 20 yards down the street, but luckily it was not gone with with wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 I watched some of that train video on the train. A bunch of kids were shoveling snow near the track and a freight train came by and blew even more over where they had shoveled. I laughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 The 12z EPS has a very workable pattern for us. It’s not a major storm pattern, but I could see some light to moderate events with some snow to mix to rain scenarios. Here is the 12z EPS look at day 8 and then the 8-15 average look for the 7 day period from the 23rd to the 30th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2023 Author Share Posted January 15, 2023 The 12z EPS has good news as well with the temperatures. The above normal temperatures look to be done and workable temperatures near average are showing for the last week of the month. Average temperatures should work for frozen precip at the coldest average time of year in late January. Here are the average temperatures for the day 8-15 period from the 23rd to the 30th. This run also ends cold with below normal temperatures for us at day 15 on the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, anotherman said: I had been thinking about that mentioning the 06-07 winter. Considering CTP’s area as a whole, that one started even worse than this one as places like UNV were just about as well off as the Sus Valley. I thought it also had the latest inch recorded in the lower parts of the LSV but I couldn’t remember the exact date.. it was within a couple days of that Feb 4. 1995 record though. 94-95 winter is definitely not good company to be in but 06-07 did turn overall the back half of the winter with the V-Day ‘07 debacle and St Patty’s Nor’easter (both NESIS rated storms) as the headliners. That Feb 12-15, 2007 event was the first actual widespread event of the season for C-PA. Even the 95 event that gave MU its latest inch of snow ever was enough for a low end NESIS rank.. as well as likely being responsible for most of H-burg’s 9” that winter haha. Pretty much what I’m trying to say is that it’s really hard to get out of a winter in our region without at least some kind of more significant event even in the worst winters . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z EPS has good news as well with the temperatures. The above normal temperatures look to be done and workable temperatures near average are showing for the last week of the month. Average temperatures should work for frozen precip at the coldest average time of year in late January. Here are the average temperatures for the day 8-15 period from the 23rd to the 30th. This run also ends cold with below normal temperatures for us at day 15 on the 30th. I do like the overall look of things as we get toward the end of the month into early February. Seeing the cold anomalies in Canada replacing the sea of red positives is a good start even though the press focuses west/central US initially. We did kind of just go through this in December, where we were initially targeting significant cold being here by mid month and we didn’t get it until after mid-month and the really cold stuff waited until 2 days before Christmas. We’re likely looking at the same kind of progression here if it does eventually get cold. I think enough cold will eventually press our way but big question will be if we can knock back the SE ridge enough to finally get on the cold side of the storm track for a change. It doesn’t appear that way for the 19th storm (other than maybe brief interior ice in the beginning) and the next one around the 23rd or so is still debatable, although I continue to think that one has a better chance to at least have some kind of a mixing event up front if it cuts. Overall we’re likely going to have to take a couple more lumps storm-wise the next 7 days or so. Other question is sustainability if we can get the cold period. MJO could be a factor in a bad way if it eventually propagates into the P4-6 realm (talking beyond 15days at this point for this). That was a big reason our Christmas week cold got cut short. Models generally seem to want try to turn it back into the null phase before it goes from phase 3-4 for now but that evolution will need to be monitored. That’s likely to be a player on how mid-late February fares down the road. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 hours ago, MAG5035 said: but 06-07 did turn overall the back half of the winter with the V-Day ‘07 debacle and St Patty’s Nor’easter (both NESIS rated storms) as the headliners. That Feb 12-15, 2007 event was the first actual widespread event of the season for C-PA. The V-day 07 storm was super frustrating in the Susquehanna Valley. Like you said, we waited all Winter for a major storm. The week prior, many model runs showed the Harrisburg area getting crushed with 1 to 2 feet of snow. Then, a couple of days before, the track ended up causing issues with the mid levels. We ended up getting a few inches of snow, and then about 18 hours of the heaviest sleet that I have ever experienced. It then flipped to snow on the back end and we picked up a couple of more inches. The highway shut downs were a major problem and vehicles were encased in the icy conditions. If I remember correctly it then got frigid for the week following the storm. It was a memorable event, but it was frustrating knowing that areas to the north & west got buried in heavy snow while we got the sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 The V-day 07 storm was super frustrating in the Susquehanna Valley. Like you said, we waited all Winter for a major storm. The week prior, many model runs showed the Harrisburg area getting crushed with 1 to 2 feet of snow. Then, a couple of days before, the track ended up causing issues with the mid levels. We ended up getting a few inches of snow, and then about 18 hours of the heaviest sleet that I have ever experienced. It then flipped to snow on the back end and we picked up a couple of more inches. The highway shut downs were a major problem and vehicles were encased in the icy conditions. If I remember correctly it then got frigid for the week following the storm. It was a memorable event, but it was frustrating knowing that areas to the north & west got buried in heavy snow while we got the sleet fest.I was living in Maryland at the time and I remember my car being literally encased in ice. Hours of sleet followed by frigid temperatures. I couldn’t get into it or move it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 The 0z ICON looks a lot like the 12z Euro and takes the storm next Sunday under us and along the Mid Atlantic coast bringing snow to most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Major change on the 0z GFS with the next Sunday event. 0z top & 18z bottom Lol, only a 4 state move east with the low…the trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z ICON looks a lot like the 12z Euro and takes the storm next Sunday under us and along the Mid Atlantic coast bringing snow to most of us. That’s sweet! We can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Wow 15 degrees here this morning I wasn’t expecting that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 36 minutes ago, pawatch said: Wow 15 degrees here this morning I wasn’t expecting that at all. 27 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 19 for the low here. Quite the wintery temp weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 19 for the low here. Quite the wintery temp weekend. Pretty big difference in temps this morning - 8 degrees seems like a lot given the conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Pretty big difference in temps this morning - 8 degrees seems like a lot given the conditions. It looks wintery out too....super frosty. Look how much warmer it is over the ridge from me in Adams. Upper 20's to upper 30's!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Major change on the 0z GFS with the next Sunday event. 0z top & 18z bottom Lol, only a 4 state move east with the low…the trend is our friend. The 6z GFS continued the positive trend for the Sunday pm and into Monday chance. This run the low tracks under PA and it has a rain to snow scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It looks wintery out too....super frosty. Look how much warmer it is over the ridge from me in Adams. Upper 20's to upper 30's!. No frost at all around here. Not just Adams county, but a lot of stations to your east are in the 26-32 degree range. I guess my 27 is more representative than I first thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I really, really don't want snow next Sunday night. I95 in Philly is harrowing enough in good weather. Having said that, perfectly fitting if it snows on THE day that I wouldn't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS continued the positive trend for the Sunday pm and into Monday chance. This run the low tracks under PA and it has a rain to snow scenario. The 0z Euro continues to be steady by yet again tracking the Sunday pm low under PA bringing the chance for snow. Long way to go, but it’s good to see the Euro & GFS now coming to an agreement. Let’s hope that it holds and improves more this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 15 was the low here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 56 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 15 was the low here. Only got down to 24 in Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Only got down to 24 in Marysville. That's a big difference. But that's the price I pay in winter living here in a valley with the mountain on the south side and a creek on the north side. Can't wait for spring and summer. But I'm sure winter will deliver the goods till we get to spring. Still plenty of time left to go till we get to that point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Only got down to 24 in Marysville. Same here as well. Next weekend maybe our time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 A frosty low of 19.6 this morning at sunrise. Temp has risen 25 degrees in the past 2 1/2 hours to a current 45. Must admit, if it can't snow then today's weather looks perfect for a mid-winter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Still just 30 here but the HRRR says I have 20 more degrees coming in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Still just 30 here but the HRRR says I have 20 more degrees coming in the next few hours. I just reached 40 in Marysville with full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: A frosty low of 19.6 this morning at sunrise. Temp has risen 25 degrees in the past 2 1/2 hours to a current 45. Must admit, if it can't snow then today's weather looks perfect for a mid-winter day. 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Still just 30 here but the HRRR says I have 20 more degrees coming in the next few hours. And the gap in temp grows across the region... I'm up 13 since my overnight low. Just hit the 40 degree mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Down in Frederick MD and it is 40 here. Early MD nooners. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 12z GFS goes back to the west again and rains on us for the 22nd/23rd system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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