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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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24 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Well maybe the Voyager curse will be about to be reversed...countdown is on.

 

22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If it is not reversed, the winter of 22-23 will go down as the year Voyager shit the blinds.  (Some MA humor in there) 

I already admit that it's my fault, you guys may as well, too. Haha...

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11 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Punting this winter and looking at the December models???

It is only mid Jan so I am not punting, just doing PBP.  This AM Atomix sort of punted and I replied to him that if he was right, it would be like a previous year where the big snow was in October....and got blamed for the punt. 

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A big key to how this sets up going forward will be the positioning of the ridge in the West and/or East Pac… something that should be noted as definitely not set in stone as one can see from the 12z comparison of Op models.

1765368083_ECGFS.thumb.png.9f421181b436af5c66d06c26f119664a.png

Funny part about this is the 12z GFS (on the right)  in this hour timeframe is delivering C-PA snow from that 2nd potential system thats been showing up near the 22nd-23rd. I think that one probably has a better chance at frozen than the 19th/20th system although I wouldn’t sleep on that one either. At any rate, GEFS generally supports its op focusing the trough in the west while the Canadian op (maxed at h240) is more similar to the GFS today. The other ensembles of the Canadian and now the Euro EPS generally show the overall trough moves out instead of digging into the SW US. The latter two are definitely good looks, as is the Euro op itself. 

The temps still aren’t especially cold which I’ve brought up in previous posts and I’m sure has been mentioned elsewhere. Even with that Euro trough in the D8-10, negative departures aren’t that crazy and they’re more in the south than at this latitude while Canada is really warm wrt average. Even if this pattern evolves favorably following the 19/20th system, it’s likely not going to have anything crazy cold wise initially. It would still be plenty workable in our region though for snow potential given the time of the year. 

Unfortunately for @Voyager, the only really sure thing does seem to be temp departures in the SW US.

 

10 day average temps from D5-15

image.thumb.png.b7b3e10b7241c00516a0c6febf3bc752.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is only mid Jan so I am not punting, just doing PBP.  This AM Atomix sort of punted and I replied to him that if he was right, it would be like a previous year where the big snow was in October....and got blamed for the punt. 

Just pickin' on ya about the typo...or brain fart...lol

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