Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Nice little deformation band starts cranking away.

Yeah I'm seeing that.  IF trough axis holds, it COULD lead to a little better look, but were gonna need to see this for a few more runs, before getting giddy....cause right now, most are gunshy.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll be surprised if they report more than a T - I saw no visible signs of snow along the river route this morning. 

This fella near Middletown on Cocorahs says to hang on a dang minute, reporting a big 1.5". 

 

1/9/2023

8:00 AM

PA-DP-14

Middletown 2.9 NW

0.14

1.5 NA NA

1.5 NA NA

PA

Dauphin

[pasnownut]

This would be the way that it would have to evolve to work though, and verbatim, Im not sure how much better we can get in a progressive flow like this.  JMO's tho.

[GrandmasterB]

Not happening, but us eastern folks can dream!!

[Itstrainingtime]

53 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This fella near Middletown on Cocorahs says to hang on a dang minute, reporting a big 1.5". 

 

1/9/2023

8:00 AM

PA-DP-14

Middletown 2.9 NW

0.14

1.5 NA NA

1.5 NA NA

PA

Dauphin

Oh shoot! Well, this will be interesting to see what fell at the tarmac. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z EPS Control run because...well....it is something to hope for vs a total shutout.  Grabbed from MA.  No details as I do not have access. 

 

 

50 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Not happening, but us eastern folks can dream!!

It's uncanny how the 12z Euro picked up farther east from where the 6z Control left off. 

[Bubbler86]

6 hours in the life of a European Model. 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

44 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh shoot! Well, this will be interesting to see what fell at the tarmac. 

Well, you would hope at least something shows up given this period of observations, but with MDT you just never know.  Temps may have made for little to no accumulation though.  We shall see.

Jan 9, 3:50 am	34	32	93		NW	5	2.50	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.65	29.99	0.08
Jan 9, 3:45 am	34	32	93		NW	5	2.50	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.65	29.99	0.08
Jan 9, 3:40 am	34	32	93		WNW	3	2.50	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.65	29.99	0.08
Jan 9, 3:35 am	32	32	100		NW	3	2.00	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.65	29.99	0.08
Jan 9, 3:30 am	32	32	100		NW	3	2.00	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.66	30.00	0.08
Jan 9, 3:25 am	32	32	100		NW	5	1.25	Lt snow	OVC005		29.66	30.00	0.08
Jan 9, 3:20 am	32	32	100		NW	5	1.25	Lt snow	OVC005		29.66	30.00	0.07
Jan 9, 3:15 am	32	30	93		NW	5	1.25	Lt snow	OVC007		29.67	30.01	0.06
Jan 9, 3:10 am	32	30	93	26	NW	7	1.25	Lt snow	OVC007		29.67	30.01	0.04
Jan 9, 3:06 am	33	31	92	27	NW	7	1.25	Lt snow	OVC007		29.67	30.01	0.03
Jan 9, 3:05 am	34	30	86	28	NW	7	1.25	Lt snow	OVC009		29.67	30.01	0.03
Jan 9, 3:00 am	34	30	86	28	WNW	7	1.50	Lt rain, Lt snow, Mist	OVC011		29.67	30.01
Jan 9, 2:56 am	33	30	88	28	WNW	6	1.50	Lt snow, Lt rain, Mist	OVC013	1016.60	29.67	30.01	0.03
Jan 9, 2:55 am	34	30	86	28	WNW	7	1.50	Lt rain, Lt snow, Mist	OVC013		29.67	30.01	0.03
Jan 9, 2:50 am	34	30	86	29	WNW	6	1.75	Lt rain, Lt snow, Mist	BKN013 OVC024		29.67	30.01	0.01
Jan 9, 2:49 am	35	30	82	30	WNW	6	1.75	Lt snow, Lt rain	BKN013 OVC024		29.67	30.01	0.01
Jan 9, 2:45 am	36	30	80	31	W	6	3.50	Lt rain, Lt snow	BKN015 OVC024		29.67	30.01	0.01
Jan 9, 2:40 am	37	28	70		N	0	7.00	Lt rain, Lt snow	OVC022		29.67	30.01
Jan 9, 2:35 am	37	28	70		N	0	10.00	Lt rain, Lt snow	BKN024 OVC036		29.67	30.01
Jan 9, 2:30 am	37	28	70		N	0	10.00	Lt snow	BKN024 OVC035		29.68	30.02

[canderson]

I had at best .2" this am. Roofs and grass lightly covered. 

Saying for the season I'm at 4.1". 

[CarlislePaWx]

A Nice coating everywhere except sidewalks/streets this morning.  0.5" of snow on the board.  I could tell without even having to search that the unevenness in the snow layer meant that at least a part or even most of the snow fell with big flakes.  The snow melted down to .03" producing an SLR of 17:1.  Another thing I did not see but believe happened is that the snow ended at least 2 hours before dawn because my low temp dropped to 25.6 at dawn.  Incredible what even a 0.5" of snow can contribute to radiational cooling.  Currently I'm at my high for the day at 42.6 degrees with patches of snow that have been shaded all day remaining.  So, for just a while longer I have some white to look at in my back yard.

[Yardstickgozinya]

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This fella near Middletown on Cocorahs says to hang on a dang minute, reporting a big 1.5". 

 

1/9/2023

8:00 AM

PA-DP-14

Middletown 2.9 NW

0.14

1.5 NA NA

1.5 NA NA

PA

Dauphin

Actually seems accurate to me. the only guy that was undoubtedly up and out in it ,although By 8:00 am my 1.4 was down to .4" so that's pretty weird. After going back over my video from this morning and taking a early morning drive through downtown Harrisburg tells me people are using 2 -3 hour late to the party and emotional measuring sticks, not the gozinya kind. Thats ok I guess its the effort that counts.

[windycutter]

Yuck

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well, you would hope at least something shows up given this period of observations, but with MDT you just never know.  Temps may have made for little to no accumulation though.  We shall see.

Jan 9, 3:50 am	34	32	93		NW	5	2.50	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.65	29.99	0.08
Jan 9, 3:45 am	34	32	93		NW	5	2.50	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.65	29.99	0.08
Jan 9, 3:40 am	34	32	93		WNW	3	2.50	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.65	29.99	0.08
Jan 9, 3:35 am	32	32	100		NW	3	2.00	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.65	29.99	0.08
Jan 9, 3:30 am	32	32	100		NW	3	2.00	Lt snow, Mist	OVC005		29.66	30.00	0.08
Jan 9, 3:25 am	32	32	100		NW	5	1.25	Lt snow	OVC005		29.66	30.00	0.08
Jan 9, 3:20 am	32	32	100		NW	5	1.25	Lt snow	OVC005		29.66	30.00	0.07
Jan 9, 3:15 am	32	30	93		NW	5	1.25	Lt snow	OVC007		29.67	30.01	0.06
Jan 9, 3:10 am	32	30	93	26	NW	7	1.25	Lt snow	OVC007		29.67	30.01	0.04
Jan 9, 3:06 am	33	31	92	27	NW	7	1.25	Lt snow	OVC007		29.67	30.01	0.03
Jan 9, 3:05 am	34	30	86	28	NW	7	1.25	Lt snow	OVC009		29.67	30.01	0.03
Jan 9, 3:00 am	34	30	86	28	WNW	7	1.50	Lt rain, Lt snow, Mist	OVC011		29.67	30.01
Jan 9, 2:56 am	33	30	88	28	WNW	6	1.50	Lt snow, Lt rain, Mist	OVC013	1016.60	29.67	30.01	0.03
Jan 9, 2:55 am	34	30	86	28	WNW	7	1.50	Lt rain, Lt snow, Mist	OVC013		29.67	30.01	0.03
Jan 9, 2:50 am	34	30	86	29	WNW	6	1.75	Lt rain, Lt snow, Mist	BKN013 OVC024		29.67	30.01	0.01
Jan 9, 2:49 am	35	30	82	30	WNW	6	1.75	Lt snow, Lt rain	BKN013 OVC024		29.67	30.01	0.01
Jan 9, 2:45 am	36	30	80	31	W	6	3.50	Lt rain, Lt snow	BKN015 OVC024		29.67	30.01	0.01
Jan 9, 2:40 am	37	28	70		N	0	7.00	Lt rain, Lt snow	OVC022		29.67	30.01
Jan 9, 2:35 am	37	28	70		N	0	10.00	Lt rain, Lt snow	BKN024 OVC036		29.67	30.01
Jan 9, 2:30 am	37	28	70		N	0	10.00	Lt snow	BKN024 OVC035		29.68	30.02

MDT recorded 0.9 inches of snow today, which seems reasonable and representative of the surrounding areas.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Euro gets eastern 1/3 of pa gets into some fun.  Not much but better than going the other way, which we seem to accel at. 

That said, Euro/CMC and GFS have something to watch.  

Hopefully we can get something out of this storm later in the week before we wait again for pattern improvement later this month.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT recorded 0.9 inches of snow today, which seems reasonable and representative of the surrounding areas.

That puts them at 2.9" for the winter.   Not that it matters for the second half of winter but wonder where that falls for first half of met winter historically.  Obviously going to be very low on the list but were any seasons lower?  Already determined 19/20 was higher.   1/15 is Sunday so not totally out of the question some could be added on. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT recorded 0.9 inches of snow today, which seems reasonable and representative of the surrounding areas.

MDT is now at 2.9 inches of snow for the season through today.

Normally MDT is at 7.4 inches of snow through today, so we have a deficit of 4.5 inches of snow at this moment.

It would only take 1 Advisory level event to get us caught up right now….there is a long way to go yet in this snow season.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

That puts them at 2.9" for the winter.   Not that it matters for the second half of winter but wonder where that falls for first half of met winter historically.  Obviously going to be very low on the list but were any seasons lower?  Already determined 19/20 was higher.   1/15 is Sunday so not totally out of the question some could be added on. 

Like I just posted…MDT only averages 7.4 through today’s date, so we really are not too far behind.

We can make up ground quickly…

[Cashtown_Coop]

26 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT recorded 0.9 inches of snow today, which seems reasonable and representative of the surrounding areas.

I would have rounded to 1”.  Weak.

[Ruin]

and again the cold air gets pushed back on model runs and extended forecast instead of 14th starting to get colder with maybe a storm. I saw 40s and 50s all the way to the 20th at least  Last couple of years have been like this the cold air they call for never comes keeps getting pushed back. thats why I was surprised we got thee mini artic air mass we did around Christmas 

[Ruin]

8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I would have rounded to 1”.  Weak.

years following mdt recordings they often round down a bit 

[GrandmasterB]

37 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT is now at 2.9 inches of snow for the season through today.

Normally MDT is at 7.4 inches of snow through today, so we have a deficit of 4.5 inches of snow at this moment.

It would only take 1 Advisory level event to get us caught up right now….there is a long way to go yet in this snow season.

Sharp cutoff to the east. LNS is basically at zero. 2 T’s and maybe a .25.

[Itstrainingtime]

21 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Sharp cutoff to the east. LNS is basically at zero. 2 T’s and maybe a .25.

That's what I've been saying - parts of Lanco has been a total shutout.

[Itstrainingtime]

59 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Like I just posted…MDT only averages 7.4 through today’s date, so we really are not too far behind.

We can make up ground quickly…

I mean...you're not totally wrong.

But for a lot of your friends to your southeast, it's been nothing short of ugly to this point. And there's nothing super promising anytime soon. 

Optimism is good, for those who are at 0" and could still be there for another couple of weeks...optimism wanes a little quicker.

[anotherman]

There is no way to sugarcoat this winter so far. It’s been absolutely pathetic.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

There is no way to sugarcoat this winter so far. It’s been absolutely pathetic.

I mean...you're not totally wrong either. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

19 minutes ago, Ruin said:

years following mdt recordings they often round down a bit 

Yes, playing a joke on 

 

43 minutes ago, Ruin said:

years following mdt recordings they often round down a bit 

Calling @Blizzard of 93

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

There is no way to sugarcoat this winter so far. It’s been absolutely pathetic.

Central Park looks to go through January without measurable snow for the first time I believe ever. 

[anotherman]

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

There is no way to sugarcoat this winter so far. It’s been absolutely pathetic.

Look back over the decades….

Many of our Winters that end up close to average are made up of a few good weeks of cold & storms.

Maybe late January 20th to February 10th will be a good period with a few Warning level events?

Then maybe we have 1 more good run from February 20th to March 10th that will bring us to near average for the season.

Bottom line…lots of time yet to score snow.

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's what I've been saying - parts of Lanco has been a total shutout.

We are under 2" here....to me, 2.9" near the midpoint of winter is not much better than 0.  In both instances the snow was totally gone at Mdt before the end of the same day.