Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, anotherman said: Sure, but if you look at the temperature of the ocean and pretty much the entire northern hemisphere, you start to see the big picture. Hard to ignore what we are currently dealing with. I think the MJO will help the pattern improve for us over the next couple of weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Memories Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Rooting the weekend rainstorm goes away and it ends up dry. Had a tiny bit of sleet earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 CTP is all in for a little snow tomorrow night in the Harrisburg area. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 31. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 Great forecast discussion by CTP for the snow chance tomorrow night. Lift ahead of the sfc low will generate precip out of the lowering deck, but initially dry llvls will resist it. By sunset, some snow is expected to hit the ground along the MD border, generally in the Laurels, but perhaps over closer to THV/LNS, too. The synoptic situation lends itself to some slantwise instability over the CWA, with banded precip likely. The intensity and placement of the band(s) is in question. These mesoscale features usually are at this range. While the details are not clear, the big picture is that most if not all of the precip over the CWA will be snow. The SLRs are expected to be rather low/wet (7-10:1). That`s a negative for big SF numbers, as is the forward speed (and lowresidence time) of the system. It`s much like a clipper, but coming more from the west than from Alberta (Kansas Klipper). However, most models make 0.10" of QPF over the srn half or so of the CWA, mainly between 00Z and 10Z Sun. A stripe of heavier (0.25") QPF is possible per the NAM and a couple of HREF members, but "Where?" is the question. At this point, the mean answer is somewhere between UNV and MDT, parallel and close to a JST-AOO-SEG-HZL line. The main takeaway at this time in the forecast was to raise the SF numbers to 1-2" in that area, and make mention of T-1" all the way south to the MD border. Will keep mentions of T-1" in a stripe of zones from Clearfield to Sullivan Cos. This should cover subsequent waggle(s) N and S of the focus for slightly heavier precip. All said, someone on the higher elevations in the Laurels and/or Ridge-and-Valley Region may get near 3". At this range and with the uncertainties of multiple items, there is no need for an advy anywhere - yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 Lol, I think that CTP just coined a new storm type….” Kansas Klipper” ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 18z NAMs & RGEM have the LSV light snow tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 The 18z GFS has a similar idea as the NAMs with a max area down near DC and a second max area up to the north of Harrisburg. Hopefully someone in between these areas “jackpots” with 2 or 3 inches of snow by Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 hours ago, anotherman said: There is basically no cold air in much of the northern hemisphere. Agree on our side of the northern hemisphere and Western Europe, however the other side is a whole different story that probably shouldn’t be overlooked. Lots of cold anomalies spread across a large part of the Asian continent (most of Russia from west to east, China, eventually Japan, etc) during the next 7-14 days. If it’s super warm on our side, it’s typically really cold somewhere else on the other side. 7 day mean temp (D1-8) 7 day mean temp (D8-15) We are and will continue to work a decent negative -AO regime throughout the period (next 15 days) so one of my concerns regarding any eventual flip back to an overall colder pattern here is possibly considering the fact that the bulk of the cold dump into mid-latitudes is occurring on the other side of the hemisphere and not ours. On the other hand, there is still “cold” to work with that in the right setup to get us to snow…even with the bigger storm potential late next week. This is January after all. We’re just not in a cold regime overall until some wholesale changes occur. That’s likely going to hinge on what kind/magnitude of MJO forcing we have going forward (even the circle is better than another 4-5-6 run). I feel like we will eventually come back around to a much better period but it may take a couple weeks longer to get there. That doesn’t mean we can’t have opportunities in the meantime either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2023 Author Share Posted January 7, 2023 The 18z GFS provides hope for late next week with Warning level front end snow. Maybe we are still in the game …? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 5 hours ago, anotherman said: There is basically no cold air in much of the northern hemisphere. Basically our issue in a nutshell on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z NAMs & RGEM have the LSV light snow tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Jns2183 said: Memories Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Good memories indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Plow down sparks upcoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Plow down sparks upcoming! I’m thinking the .25” deathband sits over us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m thinking the .25” deathband sits over us. Gettysburg area School District, 2 hour delay, modified morning kindergarten! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Gettysburg area School District, 2 hour delay, modified morning kindergarten! :-) Waynesboro closed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z GFS provides hope for late next week with Warning level front end snow. Maybe we are still in the game …? Cad Ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 26 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m thinking the .25” deathband sits over us. No, it’s getting to my yard & to MDT to pad our awesome stats this season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Waynesboro closed That is Waynesbar to the locals. Hard to find someone here who says the word Boro. Everything is bar. Waynesbar, boonesbar, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: No, it’s getting to my yard & to MDT to pad our awesome stats this season! But all that MDT will report is a T 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is Waynesbar to the locals. Hard to find someone here who says the word Boro. Everything is bar. Waynesbar, boonesbar, etc. Driving down off the mountain from Penn Mar it makes sense 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 hours ago, Jns2183 said: Memories Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Wow Jan 6, 7, 8 1996. Oh the Memories! All the EPIC, EPIC jebwalks! I was so young back then! I was digging snow for a while! I was so damned excited, I didnt sleep for three days straight! That, was THE STORM OF A LIFETIME !!!!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Wow Jan 6, 7, 8 1996. Oh the Memories! All the EPIC, EPIC jebwalks! I was so young back then! I was digging snow for a while! I was so damned excited, I didnt sleep for three days straight! That, was THE STORM OF A LIFETIME !!!!!!Jebman! This must be the mojo we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, anotherman said: Jebman! This must be the mojo we need. You're gonna need a bigger shovel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 You're gonna need a bigger shovel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 It is about to be at freezing for the first time since the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 The 0z NAMs & Canadians look good for 1 to 2 inches of snow tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Spent the day at Valley Forge National Park. Had a fair amount of sleet during the afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z NAMs & Canadians look good for 1 to 2 inches of snow tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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