Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Superstorm]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's right where we...

I'm still interested in this time period. 

Not to be overly dramatic, but going beyond this time frame, if we don't score in the next 10-14 days, it might start looking a little dire.

Could be a 2016 "one and done" type deal.  I'll take that!

[MAG5035]

8-10 days out disclaimer and etc etc, but here’s probs for 3+ via the 12z Euro ensemble. The ensemble mean itself seems to support less of a C-PA dividing (or avoiding) swath of snowfall that the op and control have.. for this afternoon at least. Good ensemble signal though. 

[Streak]

3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

True. There's some people who see warmth as a positive thing. As much as I love big winter storms I do love it when we get really warm days like the past few we've had. I'm a big fan of both lol

Same, my ideal winter has plenty of snow but with a lot of thaws and warm spells mixed in.

I probably say it too much, but any day I can be outside with the dog for at least an hour is a good day for me. And if I only need jeans and a hoodie (or lately, jeans/t shirt), I’m not complaining. 

[Itstrainingtime]

48 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Could be a 2016 "one and done" type deal.  I'll take that!

I'd love to have snow on the ground for a month at a time. That seems to be getting harder and harder to accomplish these days. 

Minus that, I'll always take the thrill of a 30" dump that melts in 4-5 days over 6, 5" snows spread throughout the winter. I'm all aboard the "go big or go home" train - which ironically, seems to be becoming more likely these days as the number of big dog storms has increased since 2000, relative to the previous 30 years. 

[Newman]

Just your typical +17 temp departure at Millersville to start the month (today's data not included). Hoping for the Jan 13-15 threat to work out!

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

Just your typical +17 temp departure at Millersville to start the month (today's data not included). Hoping for the Jan 13-15 threat to work out!

 

LNS is sitting on a 61/62 for the high and 44 for the low today.  Ugly. 

[Bubbler86]

GFS holding on strong for Sunday night....Mesos's still do not buy it.  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Just your typical +17 temp departure at Millersville to start the month (today's data not included). Hoping for the Jan 13-15 threat to work out!

starting off w/ a bang for sure.

[pawatch]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'd love to have snow on the ground for a month at a time. That seems to be getting harder and harder to accomplish these days. 

Minus that, I'll always take the thrill of a 30" dump that melts in 4-5 days over 6, 5" snows spread throughout the winter. I'm all aboard the "go big or go home" train - which ironically, seems to be becoming more likely these days as the number of big dog storms has increased since 2000, relative to the previous 30 years. 

I miss the good old cutters. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

8-10 days out disclaimer and etc etc, but here’s probs for 3+ via the 12z Euro ensemble. The ensemble mean itself seems to support less of a C-PA dividing (or avoiding) swath of snowfall that the op and control have.. for this afternoon at least. Good ensemble signal though. 

Yes, EPS today had a great signal for next weekend.

Here is the snow for the next weekend period on the EPS.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS holding on strong for Sunday night....Mesos's still do not buy it.  

I would take what the 18z GFS offered for this Sunday night. Hopefully the other models come back around to give us the chance of an Advisory level minor event.

It would be a nice appetizer event…

[canderson]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'd love to have snow on the ground for a month at a time. That seems to be getting harder and harder to accomplish these days. 

Minus that, I'll always take the thrill of a 30" dump that melts in 4-5 days over 6, 5" snows spread throughout the winter. I'm all aboard the "go big or go home" train - which ironically, seems to be becoming more likely these days as the number of big dog storms has increased since 2000, relative to the previous 30 years. 

Funny, I’m the opposite. Big storms are great but if that’s it regardless the size winter to me is non existent. That 2010-11 winter where we got ~3” snow every Wednesday or so for two months was perfect. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Funny, I’m the opposite. Big storms are great but if that’s it regardless the size winter to me is non existent. That 2010-11 winter where we got ~3” snow every Wednesday or so for two months was perfect. 

The 10-11 Winter was also a little below normal at MDT with just under 30 inches of snow. It was mainly a Winter of missed opportunities and could have been so much better with a few minor changes.

We missed out on the Boxing Day December 2010 storm by about 100 miles. The big storms in January 2011 that crushed I-95 gave us a few 3 to 6 inch storms.

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would take what the 18z GFS offered for this Sunday night. Hopefully the other models come back around to give us the chance of an Advisory level minor event.

It would be a nice appetizer event…

Nam is starting to play ball.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam is starting to play ball.

Yes, I just was checking it out.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z GFS & ICON both have the Sunday pm snow chance for southern PA.

[Ruin]

This is for the 9th my forecast is sunny and surprisingly 48 haven't the weather forecasts caught up? Or is this still s outside chance 

[MAG5035]

10 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'd love to have snow on the ground for a month at a time. That seems to be getting harder and harder to accomplish these days. 

Minus that, I'll always take the thrill of a 30" dump that melts in 4-5 days over 6, 5" snows spread throughout the winter. I'm all aboard the "go big or go home" train - which ironically, seems to be becoming more likely these days as the number of big dog storms has increased since 2000, relative to the previous 30 years. 

I like to snowboard in the stuff so I’m definitely a pack person. The 3+ days of 55-60 and fog/rain wrecked the base that Blue Knob had managed to get on top of the half decent natural pack that we had for Christmas. They posted they’re closed until further notice (whenever they’re able to make some more snow). That’s PA’s highest skiable mountain (3100’ish) too. The wild swings are definitely a bummer in that regard.. so is the mixed storm after mixed storm. After the December 22nd event dumped 4-6” around here and THEN 1.5” of rain on top of that, I’d have to say I’m over mixing events. Pretty sure the Dec 15-17, 2020 storm was the last bigger storm that was a clean snowstorm around here. 

While I’m on the general subject I might as well touch on snowfall averages since I’ve seen some discussion about it the last couple days. It’s been a real mixed bag (ha ha) when it comes to snowfall with respect to average to date so far in C-PA. You go from parts of the LSV that haven’t seen much more than a trace yet to some portions of the Sus Valley that saw snow in the Dec 22 event that are below but not super far below average. Using some detailed climo data via the PSU Dept of Meteorology’s page, the 9.9” the PSU climo site (State College) measured for December was good for 42nd snowiest out of 128 to date for DJF (ranking was as of Dec 31st). So essentially, approx 70% of Decembers spanning back 128 years didn’t crack 10” for the month back in the State College area. Kinda shows even back here that a modestly snowier December is more the exception than the rule.

Another region that is likely quite below average snow wise so far is the Laurel’s, where these events that put down decent snow/sleet in the central counties put down more in the way of mix/ice up there. But especially affecting that is the lack of LES/upslope via a NW flow.  That’s been a thing the last several years in that particular part of PA, which I personally have some thoughts/theories about. I mean we’re talking about a part of PA that sees a lot of snow, but the co-op site in the Laurel’s for example has been notably below its longer term average esp since the 2014-2015 winter. Only one of the last 8 winters was average, with none above average and the rest below. If one wants to see an actual notable trend of less snowy (with respect to average) the last several years, this region of PA is seeing it… and that of course affects the ski resorts there (Blue Knob, 7 Springs, etc). MDT in that same timeframe has seen 5 above average winters, 2 below average (still around the median), and the 1 all time turd (2019-20). 

I’m not sure why 19-20 isn’t included in there (probably Covid related) but we know how bad that winter was for snow. 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

@MAG5035 geez,  I had no idea it was THAT bad out that way - I just checked 7 Springs, and they're not doing much better...only 22% of available terrain was open yesterday. 

Not a good start to the season pretty much up and down the east coast I'd guess.

Conversely - Mammoth Mountain was closed yesterday due to extreme winter conditions. You know it's bad when one of the big boys in the Sierra can't keep up with the snow they're getting. It looks like a couple of feet will fall on Saturday before potentially many more feet fall early to mid week next week. If those 2 high probability storms pan out, they'll be well over 300" for the season by 1/15. (and higher than that at the summit)

[Bubbler86]

5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@MAG5035 geez,  I had no idea it was THAT bad out that way - I just checked 7 Springs, and they're not doing much better...only 22% of available terrain was open yesterday. 

Not a good start to the season pretty much up and down the east coast I'd guess.

Conversely - Mammoth Mountain was closed yesterday due to extreme winter conditions. You know it's bad when one of the big boys in the Sierra can't keep up with the snow they're getting. It looks like a couple of feet will fall on Saturday before potentially many more feet fall early to mid week next week. If those 2 high probability storms pan out, they'll be well over 300" for the season by 1/15. (and higher than that at the summit)

I noticed the lights on at Whitetail so checked their webcams and it is not good.   The trails look sparsely covered.   40 and wet here this AM.   GFS and CMC now both have the coastal for next week, but temps limit the snow for the LSV.  More snow northern PA on the GFS but overall, there is not much cold air around. 

 

NAM, GFS, Icon still leaning toward an LSV 1-2" sloppy snow Sunday night with marginal 2M temps.  Rgem/Euro slide most of it south of PA. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The Sunday night minor event has a lot of support now on most models for maybe an inch or two of snow for many of us.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GFS for the coastal chance Next weekend gets Warning level snow to the LSV and gets heavier snow to the mid & upper Susquehanna Valley.

If there is a little more cold air available towards the beginning of the storm, there is a lot of upside potential if this track is right. Verbatim this run, the Susquehanna Valley cashes in as the storm intensifies as it tracks from the DelMarVa to southern NJ.

[pawatch]

Nice write up Mag! Interesting read.

We had 6.9” of snow in December. Which is a few inches below our average. Not sure how much of that was sleet.

36 and showers this morning.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Looks like about .04" of rain around these parts this morning.  MDT running a cool 15.6 AN ha.  The warmest January on record by a longshot is 1932, with a mean temp of 42.5.  Second place is 1950 at 39.8.  Something to keep an eye on as we near the second week of January with a mean above 47. 

I think we have a decent shot at scoring some white stuff Sunday night but the marginal surface temps will make for tough accumulation and a quick disappearance by Monday afternoon.  As for late next week, I'm mildly optimistic but just can't get my hopes up given how tough it's been to thread the needle with coastal scenarios in recent years.  My guard is up.  With that said, I'll be paying close attention as we approach the 3-5 day period.

National high of 87 at multiple spots in Florida and low of -23 near Seagull Lake, MN.  Happy Friday everyone. 

[TugHillMatt]

7 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I like to snowboard in the stuff so I’m definitely a pack person. The 3+ days of 55-60 and fog/rain wrecked the base that Blue Knob had managed to get on top of the half decent natural pack that we had for Christmas. They posted they’re closed until further notice (whenever they’re able to make some more snow). That’s PA’s highest skiable mountain (3100’ish) too. The wild swings are definitely a bummer in that regard.. so is the mixed storm after mixed storm. After the December 22nd event dumped 4-6” around here and THEN 1.5” of rain on top of that, I’d have to say I’m over mixing events. Pretty sure the Dec 15-17, 2020 storm was the last bigger storm that was a clean snowstorm around here. 

While I’m on the general subject I might as well touch on snowfall averages since I’ve seen some discussion about it the last couple days. It’s been a real mixed bag (ha ha) when it comes to snowfall with respect to average to date so far in C-PA. You go from parts of the LSV that haven’t seen much more than a trace yet to some portions of the Sus Valley that saw snow in the Dec 22 event that are below but not super far below average. Using some detailed climo data via the PSU Dept of Meteorology’s page, the 9.9” the PSU climo site (State College) measured for December was good for 42nd snowiest out of 128 to date for DJF (ranking was as of Dec 31st). So essentially, approx 70% of Decembers spanning back 128 years didn’t crack 10” for the month back in the State College area. Kinda shows even back here that a modestly snowier December is more the exception than the rule.

Another region that is likely quite below average snow wise so far is the Laurel’s, where these events that put down decent snow/sleet in the central counties put down more in the way of mix/ice up there. But especially affecting that is the lack of LES/upslope via a NW flow.  That’s been a thing the last several years in that particular part of PA, which I personally have some thoughts/theories about. I mean we’re talking about a part of PA that sees a lot of snow, but the co-op site in the Laurel’s for example has been notably below its longer term average esp since the 2014-2015 winter. Only one of the last 8 winters was average, with none above average and the rest below. If one wants to see an actual notable trend of less snowy (with respect to average) the last several years, this region of PA is seeing it… and that of course affects the ski resorts there (Blue Knob, 7 Springs, etc). MDT in that same timeframe has seen 5 above average winters, 2 below average (still around the median), and the 1 all time turd (2019-20). 

I’m not sure why 19-20 isn’t included in there (probably Covid related) but we know how bad that winter was for snow. 

 

 

Here in the Syracuse/CNY area of Upstate NY we rely on NW flow to give us our snowfall off of Lake Ontario. We have been significantly below normal snowfall-wise for years...because the cold NW flow has been missing.

[Cashtown_Coop]

6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Here in the Syracuse/CNY area of Upstate NY we rely on NW flow to give us our snowfall off of Lake Ontario. We have been significantly below normal snowfall-wise for years...because the cold NW flow has been missing.

The SW flow has been rockin!!

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

The SW flow has been rockin!!

Which makes my therm rock upward. 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

The SW flow has been rockin!!

Grrrrrrrrrrrr.

Stinkin' Buffalo.

[Bubbler86]

12Z Nam uses a close proximity Miller B scenario (tag team almost) to form a MA split for the most part as to Monday AM.   Fairly skinny stripe of snow across the Southern LSV.    The "new Nam" Fv3 has a much better WAA depiction with the temp issues as stated before.

 

[Jns2183]

Alright, I figured out with this project that I really need to just bite the bullet and teach myself some coding (php, sql , open to suggestions) I'll have to wait for this evening at home to post graphs, but I took snowfall data from October through April for every year from 1890 to 2022 as my data set than ran 10,000 simulations randomly chosing a month from the entire data set to build a probalistic profile for kmdt. I then did the same for 30 year periods as a check. What I'd love to do is find a way through total qpf, dewpoint, rh to factor increasing moisture in a warming climate to include an appropriate variance variable for each month and rerun them. Further I'd like to break down each snowfall into 1-3, 3-6, etc bins for each year and see how they have changed over time. And rerun simulations just for those bins. Eventually I'd love to have the coding as such where anyone could upload a data set in appropriate format and produce a probalistic graph of 10,000 simulations that has a nice format and presentation. Besides me walking around the west shore in a 40lbs backpack training for an expedition these next few months this Is my intellectual new years goal.

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