Itstrainingtime Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 MU's Elliott is on the snow train for tomorrow - snow showers likely during the midday hours (Lanco) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU's Elliott is on the snow train for tomorrow - snow showers likely during the midday hours (Lanco) The Nam's jumped off the train. Plowing cancelled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Nam's jumped off the train. Plowing cancelled? Not what your mom said 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Nam's jumped off the train. Plowing cancelled? CTP still only has a 20 percent change of precip (snow/rain mix, no accums) for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 17 minutes ago, Anduril said: Not what your mom said My mom always said my dad was a model before he got his dad bod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: My mom always said my dad was a model before he got his dad bod. So many women lust after the plow man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Regarding the 3/3 event, the Euro op might be doing it’s best GFS impression being the most progressive at the moment but the Euro ensemble mean does indicate there’s some support for the more robust GFS/Canadian type solution. The individual low tracks that make up that mean are definitely not anything resembling clustered but there is enough among the members to yield a half decent precip mean across PA considering range. I do think this particular event presents the best legit threat of a widespread wintry event in awhile for us but I like to reel this thing in a good bit further without it ending up heading to the lakes in the process before I get super confident about it. The much closer Mon-Tues event also bears a bit of watching as well. That one will depend mainly on development of the secondary low. Euro was the most aggressive developing a noteable secondary in VA to the Delmarva. The result was keeping mixed/frozen in NC/NE PA with the threat of some icing further south into central PA. I see that as more of an interior C-PA threat either way in the best case scenario given the alignment of the primary already in the lower lakes and the secondary developing a bit late. NE PA probably in the best position in terms of PA locations. The other aspect to that system would be preceding cold on the front end but there’s not much high support. Though low 980s primary to the lakes attacking a 1020ish high in Ontario is still a half decent gradient. Overall, preceding cold isn’t much to write home about but it may still bear some watching for the front end for some ice in spots. If we do end up hitting on that 3/3 event I’d actually consider it a bonus because even at that point we’re not set up in terms of the overall pattern other than the already established -NAO. The EPO/WPO nosedive starts occurring right after this event timeframe and most guidance doesn’t get the MJO back into 8 until after the first week of March. The result in the east is continued changeable weather in terms of temp anomalies and possibly even dealing with another cutter after the potential 3/3 storm. When it does get back there, it appears it may be of a much stronger magnitude. I touched upon those things in my post yesterday and how I think the MJO loop back served to delay this big pattern change that I feel has to come at some point given eventual lining up of all these supporting teleconnections. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS another super storm next weekend. Still a bit warm for the LSV until the end but some areas of PA have historic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS another super storm next weekend. Still a bit warm for the LSV until the end but some areas of PA have historic snow. Am I looking at 12-24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 48 minutes ago, paweather said: Am I looking at 12-24? If you have a military clock? :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS another super storm next weekend. Still a bit warm for the LSV until the end but some areas of PA have historic snow. Yes & it’s not too far off from crushing all of us like the 6z run showed this morning. As is, it’s rain to mix to snow as the low hits the coast and really intensifies. As you mentioned historic snow this run from the middle Susquehanna Valley up to Northeast PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 23 minutes ago, paweather said: Am I looking at 12-24? 12 to 24 inches of snow this run is not too far to our north. We are still very much in the game, especially with the Euro still showing this to be suppressed at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 I don’t mind where we are sitting now with the Winter storm chance for late next week when considering the good GFS runs that we have had for most runs the last couple of days. Also, the 12z Canadian & 12z Euro posted below show the storm tracking to our south & east with significant timing differences. The Euro is well off to our south east, while the Canadian is a good run for southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 The 18z Euro keeps a good part of CTP in the game for frozen precip on Monday night & Tuesday with the coastal developing off of the coast of southern NJ & exiting to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 CTP dropped precip chances Saturday for me to 10% lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 39 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP dropped precip chances Saturday for me to 10% lol They were brining the roads down in Hagerstown 15 min to my south...two different worlds on this one. MD Line "mauler". LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 @Chris78 my car got crap all over it for this baby snow on I81 near the Midway exit. I think they want to use their toys though they have pre-treated for less this year. Maybe they are Fv3 fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: They were brining the roads down in Hagerstown 15 min to my south...two different worlds on this one. MD Line "mauler". LOL Use it or lose it - use up supplies or you can’t get the next budget cycle. Since towns haven’t had to use plows for two consecutive years they need to use resources. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 A very chilly late Feb 23 degrees this AM. Feels and looks like snow. Congrats to @Mount Joy Snowman for predicting MDT would top 40 for their average this month. MDT current stands at 40.9 for an average with an AN departure of exactly 8 degrees. They stand at number 2 as to the warmest Feb ever right now. Looking forward just at zones, there does not seem to be a lot of traction to get much higher but not sure they drop down past #3 if even making that. With the Jan records in the books, in my mind, this will be the warmest winter in my lifetime if not all time. Feb wise, 7 of the 10 warmest Feb's have happened in the last 32 years with 4 of the 10 in the last 5 years. Regardless of why, hard to argue we are in the warmest period of the recorded history of this area. Hard for me not to laugh when I hear any local yokel's complain about "how cold it is". This has come in a year where Central Florida has recorded several well below freezing nights and it snowed in Miami. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 23 Degrees this morning. Chance of light snow today. Hmmm Edit: currently snow and sleet. With the temp definitely laying on the roads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 The overnight runs still give a range of options for the next Friday/Saturday Winter storm chance. The 6z GFS is still furthest north bringing the low through Delaware. The 0z Canadian is furthest south and the 0z Euro brings good snow to MD & VA with a low tracking off of the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 I like our chances for next Friday & Saturday. A good compromise solution in this case would work well for the southern half of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I like our chances for next Friday & Saturday. A good compromise solution in this case would work well for the southern half of PA. The 0z Euro Control provides this type of compromise solution that I would sign up for right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I like our chances for next Friday & Saturday. A good compromise solution in this case would work well for the southern half of PA. fortunately a cmc is south which as you suggest, give us LSV'rs a chance for a souther solution. Just me wishcasting, but we've been chatting about this "window" for a few days, and its starting to look better for us to have a legit window opening. 500's look better on GFS ens vs op for next weekend and IMO would suggest op would correct south a bit (less diggy and more progressive which would help us thermally down here in taintville). Many more iterations to come. Now I just have to uncancel winter in my brain, and forget about the Harley for a while, as I was "mentally moving on" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: fortunately a cmc is south which as you suggest, give us LSV'rs a chance for a souther solution. Just me wishcasting, but we've been chatting about this "window" for a few days, and its starting to look better for us to have a legit window opening. 500's look better on GFS ens vs op for next weekend and IMO would suggest op would correct south a bit (less diggy and more progressive which would help us thermally down here in taintville). Many more iterations to come. Now I just have to uncancel winter in my brain, and forget about the Harley for a while, as I was "mentally moving on" The 0z EPS improved as well. Lots of possibilities with the individual member solutions, but the mean track would work well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 The 0z EPS snow mean improved as well for the late week chance time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Accumulating at fairly good rate. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Is our Monday system turning a little colder, and maintaing frozen awhile longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Is our Monday system turning a little colder, and maintaing frozen awhile longer? The RGEM and Euro have some Frozen Tue. Starts as rain Monday. System is more of a Monday Night/Tue system on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The RGEM and Euro have some Frozen Tue. Starts as rain Monday. System is more of a Monday Night/Tue system on the models. Yes, this needs watched as well, especially the further north & east you go in CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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