Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s do this! Late Winter save! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s do this! Late Winter save! Since you are in a good mood right now, I am going to add that I agree with the folks that have only had 1-4" of now (me included) that trying to say the winter "up until now" is not as bad as others seems like kicking dirt in their faces. This winter as a whole is worse than 2019-20 right now IMO. Worst ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We have the chance at a good ending to this Winter. The -NAO is showing up across most of the models & it is not getting pushed back in time. Gonna need it's help to salvage some winter. HH GFS is heavy into the sauce. Gonna be a pleaser (virtually for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Since you are in a good mood right now, I am going to add that I agree with the folks that have only had 1-4" of now (me included) that trying to say the winter "up until now" is not as bad as others seems like kicking dirt in their faces. This winter as a whole is worse than 2019-20 right now IMO. Worst ever. Lol, it’s bad everywhere except Buffalo & Caribou in the east. My only point, again no dirt kicking…. Is that the folks that have 0.4 would love to have the 10 that Williamsport has now. The people that have 10, would love to have the 30+ that parts of upstate NY have now. It’s all bad, but relative to the location. At no point did I ever say it was not that bad around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Gonna need it's help to salvage some winter. HH GFS is heavy into the sauce. Gonna be a pleaser (virtually for now). Epic 18z GFS run with 2 events in the next 10 days. The 12z Euro also has the 27th/28th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 Here is the first storm on the 18z GFS for next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Can't post on my phone, but what an informative series of tweets from Elliott a few hours ago about the SSWE and the potential affects on our weather in March. In short, he sees potential for a one to two week window for snow at some point between 2/28 and 3/20. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 52 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Winter must also be defined by more than just snow. In addition to almost being shutout snow-wise, it has NOT been cold. My lowest temp for the entire month of January was 25 degrees- that is an AN temp for virtually the entire month and that was the coldest morning. Some of our other snowless winters featured some cold weather. Outside of the couple of days around Christmas it's been warm. You had more winter than most of Lancaster... in ARKANSAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, it’s bad everywhere except Buffalo & Caribou in the east. My only point, again no dirt kicking…. Is that the folks that have 0.4 would love to have the 10 that Williamsport has now. The people that have 10, would love to have the 30+ that parts of upstate NY have now. It’s all bad, but relative to the location. At no point did I ever say it was not that bad around here! I felt like you were somehow defending the winter and saying it could be worse. It really would hard to be worse other than moving south. But just my opinion...I am glad we have something to track now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 I looked at many Virginia511 live freeway cameras from DC to Richmond to Norfolk, and all I saw was winter bare and brown grass, so I'm not sure this map is accurate.DcSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You had more winter than most of Lancaster... in ARKANSAS. Very true - 3 consecutive sub freezing days with frozen precip on all 3 of them. Can't remember the last time that happened here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 Here is storm 2 on the 18z GFS for the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 I might get banned if I post the combined snow map on the 18z GFS through the end of the month… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 I might get banned if I post the combined snow map on the 18z GFS through the end of the month…It’s probably all fiction anyway so post away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 18, 2023 Author Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: It’s probably all fiction anyway so post away! Lol, yes , but you’re right…why not have a little Saturday fun! Most of us would be happy if 25% of this verified! 10-1 & Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I might get banned if I post the combined snow map on the 18z GFS through the end of the month… Is it Iowa State fan good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 11 minutes ago, canderson said: Is it Iowa State fan good? I think your chrome has safe search turned on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Since you are in a good mood right now, I am going to add that I agree with the folks that have only had 1-4" of now (me included) that trying to say the winter "up until now" is not as bad as others seems like kicking dirt in their faces. This winter as a whole is worse than 2019-20 right now IMO. Worst ever. Along the M/D this is hands down the worst winter in my 22 years of being at this Location. Even in the worst of winters we nickel and dime into 15" or so. Currently sitting at 3" on the season which would easily be the worst I've recorded here. 3" from 3 separate events and each snowfall was washed away within a few hours of falling I've probably had 5 hours of snow cover on the season so far lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Along the M/D this is hands down the worst winter in my 22 years of being at this Location. Even in the worst of winters we nickel and dime into 15" or so. Currently sitting at 3" on the season which would easily be the worst I've recorded here. 3" from 3 separate events and each snowfall was washed away within a few hours of falling I've probably had 5 hours of snow cover on the season so far lol Yea, exactly the same here. Other than snow piles at the Rouzerville Wal-Mart, no snow has lasted more than 24 hours. Had one where it made it partially to the next day. I am calling 4" here. I am feel better than 50 percent about late Feb and early March. If someone from dca says "you are lucky you got 4" I would scoff. Most winters get 3" in an hour at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: Dc Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I stand corrected. Beautiful, but way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Figured this was appropriate to some of the general discussion, posted courtesy of NWS PIT’s Facebook a little bit ago. It is what it is, the overall winter pattern to date is evident in the placement of these departures. Lack of any cold westerly or northwesterly cyclonic flow is especially evident in the Alleghenies stretching down into WV, the LES belts in NW PA and non Buffalo extreme SW NY, and Rochester/Syracuse off of Ontario. The somewhat less crappy - departure area in interior SC PA was aided by scoring the 3-6” event that hit in Mid-November when we were in a colder than average regime. I had the biggest event of the season from that Mid-Nov event here (5.5”), and that’s pretty much what has this one ahead of what 19/20 delivered in the snow department in this area. I’m not looking for any sympathy since I’ve been one of the lucky ones in the subforum but as someone who likes to hit the slopes and one that favors snowpack retention, I’ve generally been on the same footing as everyone else (no snow on the ground) aside from a few days in November, the 7-10 days centered on X-Mas and those few days in late January. It seems like forever ago that we managed the coldest Christmas Eve on record here. Also, I could go a decade without seeing another snow-mix/rain event and it wouldn’t be long enough. This winter has definitely been warmer than 19/20.. specifically after the turn of the new year. 19/20 had some different driving factors, mainly a record strong PV and associated ++NAO/AO that wouldn’t quit. This hasn’t been quite like that in that realm with the December blocking that didn’t deliver and some other instances of PV stretching that led to some of our other brief attempts at winter weather. This winter has been mainly Pac and MJO driven in my opinion. The major SSW event that is ongoing is likely to be a big factor in eventually ensuring a different result this March as compared to that March. Big question will be can we finally capitalize and get some decent snow events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2023 Author Share Posted February 19, 2023 CTP seems confident for 1 week out. Friday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 28 here this AM. Over a 10 degree pop up from yesterday morning. Models a little less exciting with the prospective snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 The absurdity continues for Flagstaff... Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Windy, with a southwest wind 23 to 28 mph increasing to 33 to 38 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 32. Windy, with a southwest wind 28 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, Voyager said: The absurdity continues for Flagstaff... Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Windy, with a southwest wind 23 to 28 mph increasing to 33 to 38 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 32. Windy, with a southwest wind 28 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. You guys are getting so much snow, anything udner a foot is "snow showers". LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 MDT did sneak in an AN day yesterday with the somewhat warmer than forecast high temp of 46 in the afternoon. They stand at an average temp of 39.2 and a +7 departure. That will probably go up this week, though Wed stays in the 30's on the GFS and CMC, then possibly fall back to end Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You guys are getting so much snow, anything udner a foot is "snow showers". LOL Somewhat, but out here it IS more showery than steady, like back there. It may snow most of the day, but it comes in in waves of heavy precipitation, followed by lighter lulls, then hits again. It's definitely different the way is snows (and rains) up there in the high country. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 12 hours ago, canderson said: Is it Iowa State fan good? LMAO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, paweather said: LMAO!!! Hey MAC, we will have to McCLUNG to yesterday's HH GFS for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Hey MAC, we will have to McCLUNG to yesterday's HH GFS for now. No doubt about it and he was awesome last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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