Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Yup this is a do or die move by Phoenix

Cp3 has to play until he is 43!

[Santa Clause]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It was a great sunset.

You see anything interesting buddy?

[Voyager]

45 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think they have to win in the next year or two or the trade is a fail. 

Thanks all, but I'm responding to you Bubbler, because this is my concern. He's not a spring chicken anymore. The window of opportunity is small.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Thanks all, but I'm responding to you Bubbler, because this is my concern. He's not a spring chicken any more. The window of opportunity is small.

You’re right and why I said he needs to stay healthy should be interesting. 

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Thanks all, but I'm responding to you Bubbler, because this is my concern. He's not a spring chicken anymore. The window of opportunity is small.

All I can say is that I am glad Dallas did not give up 4 first rounders for KD.  LOL.      But if Suns win a title than it can be worth it.   Have to get past the CP3 curse. 

[Itstrainingtime]

#itsactime

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

#itsactime

Lol, you can read this a few ways…

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

You see anything interesting buddy?

I still haven’t fully thrown in the towel for the weekend event in the LSV. Maybe there will be a little trend back north with 3 days still to go.

The pattern could improve later this month as the MJO is forecast to go into phase 8. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Temp was 56.4 at 7pm. It's currently 59.8 st 8:45pm...

[anotherman]

Here comes the wind….

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z RGEM brings a good amount of precip to the LSV on Sunday pm into early Monday. Currently it is showing as rain, but surface & 850 temperatures are close.
It is close enough to keep an eye on the trends the next couple of days if this type of precip shield develops.

[MAG5035]

The wind has finally arrived, and it has really spiked the temps. I had a high of 55ºF this afternoon and was down as low as 45ºF around 930pm or so with light winds. The wind arriving has mixed down the crazy warmth west of the Laurels and I think I might have you LSV’ers beat in the spring fling department at the moment.

63ºF at 1143pm, and it was as high as 64. Insane spike.. guess that’s good for about 40-45 degrees above average lows lol. 

[MAG5035]

Looking at the model guidance tonight, there remains some support in getting precip above the Mason-Dixon into the LSV, esp into parts of Adams/York/Lancaster. Most prolific precip maker was the RGEM, delivering a stripe of 1”+ QPF across that area in a deform band… which def seems to be an outlier.

The issue I’m seeing as this threat starts getting dialed in is that even if we do get this to come up enough to deliver some precip up into southern PA, thermals may end up just a bit too warm.. or relegating any snow to the higher ridges in southern PA. That’s not necessarily because of the obvious warm air mass all around but that the storm itself matures and “stacks” all the way down in GA into the Carolinas. The dynamic processes driving the cold pool with the closed low and snow supporting column peak down there. The critical column levels in this situation (850/925 mb) modify as the matured storm tracks east below us and doesn’t track north enough either. We need this to be drawn all the way up the coast so we could not only see the precip but to get into the cold pool aloft to have a chance at seeing snow. I don’t see enough from the progged upstream northern branch feature (which i posted about yesterday) to allow this to draw up further either. 

The result is a more regional and elevational snow event centered on some portion of the southern/central Appalachians (def western Carolinas, eastern TN and SW VA). Most guidance gets measurable down all the way into at least the high ground of northern GA and I may be slightly amused that the 0z NAM tried to make Atlanta the “new Harrisburg” lol. I find it pretty wild that this kind of event is even on the table considering the current pattern we’re in teleconnection wise and being in the thick of a Phase 4-6 MJO run. But most/all of us are probably going to manage to be too far north to see a snow event with this anyways. 

[Albedoman]

Please somebody tell MT Holly whats up with the temps and thermometer at ABE? 36 degrees at ABE and 60 degrees at my house at 4 in the morning in a span of ten miles.  One hell of an inversion I would say or something definitely wrong with the instrument. Has to be one of the warmest overnight temps in Feb ever recorded. One for the record books. Many areas  are in the low 60's at 4 am

10	02:51	NW 3	10.00	Fair	CLR	36	35			97%	NA	NA	29.74	1007.4
10	01:51	Calm	6.00	Fog/Mist	CLR	39	38			96%	NA	NA	29.75	1007.5
10	00:51	Calm	8.00	Fair	CLR	42	39	56	42	89%	NA	NA	29.75	1007.7
09	23:51	Calm	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW080	44	41			89%	NA	NA	29.77	1008.3
09	22:51	NE 3	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW095	45	42			90%	NA	NA	29.78	1008.6
09	21:51	Calm	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW100	47	42			83%	NA	NA	29.81	1009.8

[TheDreamTraveler]

12 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Please somebody tell MT Holly whats up with the temps and thermometer at ABE? 36 degrees at ABE and 60 degrees at my house at 4 in the morning in a span of ten miles.  One hell of an inversion I would say or something definitely wrong with the instrument. Has to be one of the warmest overnight temps in Feb ever recorded. One for the record books. Many areas  are in the low 60's at 4 am

10	02:51	NW 3	10.00	Fair	CLR	36	35			97%	NA	NA	29.74	1007.4
10	01:51	Calm	6.00	Fog/Mist	CLR	39	38			96%	NA	NA	29.75	1007.5
10	00:51	Calm	8.00	Fair	CLR	42	39	56	42	89%	NA	NA	29.75	1007.7
09	23:51	Calm	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW080	44	41			89%	NA	NA	29.77	1008.3
09	22:51	NE 3	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW095	45	42			90%	NA	NA	29.78	1008.6
09	21:51	Calm	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW100	47	42			83%	NA	NA	29.81	1009.8

Was wondering that too. Definitely has to be a record for a lot of areas. It's 58 over here at 4 am

[MAG5035]

20 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Please somebody tell MT Holly whats up with the temps and thermometer at ABE? 36 degrees at ABE and 60 degrees at my house at 4 in the morning in a span of ten miles.  One hell of an inversion I would say or something definitely wrong with the instrument. Has to be one of the warmest overnight temps in Feb ever recorded. One for the record books. Many areas  are in the low 60's at 4 am

10	02:51	NW 3	10.00	Fair	CLR	36	35			97%	NA	NA	29.74	1007.4
10	01:51	Calm	6.00	Fog/Mist	CLR	39	38			96%	NA	NA	29.75	1007.5
10	00:51	Calm	8.00	Fair	CLR	42	39	56	42	89%	NA	NA	29.75	1007.7
09	23:51	Calm	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW080	44	41			89%	NA	NA	29.77	1008.3
09	22:51	NE 3	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW095	45	42			90%	NA	NA	29.78	1008.6
09	21:51	Calm	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW100	47	42			83%	NA	NA	29.81	1009.8

Judging by the calm winds in the obs I’d say that immediate part of town is decoupled and having radiational cooling at the surface since it’s currently clear in eastern PA. There’s a couple other obs (on Mesowest) in that area that are also in the 30s. It’ll spike once that wind and very wam air just aloft mixes down. Similar thing happened here earlier this evening as I posted about a bit ago. My temp had fallen to 45 during the mid evening and spiked to 64 just before midnight when the wind mixed down. 

[MAG5035]

7 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Was wondering that too. Definitely has to be a record for a lot of areas. It's 58 over here at 4 am

CTP added their climo section on with their latest update an hour ago. 

Quote

CLIMATE...
Record high temps were set or tied on Feb 9 at the following
sites:

        2/9/2023       Prvs Record (Yr)
MDT           61             61 (2001)
IPT          58             56 (1925)
JST           64             64 (1925)
AOO           64             55 (1990

MDT hit 61 during the day but JST and AOO spiked up to hit 64 right before midnight. Temps are falling now back this way. The 64 at a place like JST is nuts this time of the year, though apparently it also happened in 1925.

Looked like MDT spiked up to 61 again after midnight as well, just missing the 2/10 daily record of 62 set back in 1960. 

[Albedoman]

 This situation  proves to me that the instrument needs to be place elsewhere at the airport if you have that much of a difference with just decoupling of winds. The accuracy at ABE  IMHO of temp readings just failed based on the present location of the instrument as a fair and somewhat equal representation of the temps for highs and lows  throughout the LV. I am having a record high overnight less than ten miles away while the temps are just above freezing in a shack somewhere near the concrete runways and the difference is justified  based on decoupling winds does not make sense, especially when the instrument is located within an enclosed structure.  The thermometer might as well be located in Bozeman MT because what you are saying is that only a Chinook type wind will rectify this problem. Sorry but the instrument needs to relocated IMHO. 

[MAG5035]

20 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

 This situation  proves to me that the instrument needs to be place elsewhere at the airport if you have that much of a difference with just decoupling of winds. The accuracy at ABE  IMHO of temp readings just failed based on the present location of the instrument as a fair and somewhat equal representation of the temps for highs and lows  throughout the LV. I am having a record high overnight less than ten miles away while the temps are just above freezing in a shack somewhere near the concrete runways and the difference is justified  based on decoupling winds does not make sense, especially when the instrument is located within an enclosed structure.  The thermometer might as well be located in Bozeman MT because what you are saying is that only a Chinook type wind will rectify this problem. Sorry but the instrument needs to relocated IMHO. 

I mean I’m only describing what happens with calm winds at the surface and clear skies, radiational cooling. KABE is up to 48 now with a WSW wind blowing. There’s two other station’s in that area that are still cooler and others in the general area that have 20 degree differences between them. 

 

[Voyager]

This is absurd...

 ECMWF Ensemble and GEFS means indicate another anomalous low 
pressure system will dive southward through the Great Basin and 
towards the Desert Southwest Tuesday. Latest ECMWF EFIs suggest 
this system has the potential to produce widespread windy 
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation is also expected 
Tuesday night along a cold front and it may (15 percent) be cold 
enough for rain showers to change over to snow showers before 
tapering off across the lower deserts, including portions of the 
Phoenix area Wednesday morning. In the wake of this system, well 
below normal temperatures are anticipated Wednesday along with the
possibility of a widespread freeze event Thursday morning.

[Voyager]

My Sun City forecast for Tuesday night...

Tuesday Night

A chance of rain showers before 3am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%

[TheDreamTraveler]

42 minutes ago, Voyager said:

My Sun City forecast for Tuesday night...

Tuesday Night

A chance of rain showers before 3am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%

More like Snow City lol

[Mount Joy Snowman]

55 minutes ago, Voyager said:

My Sun City forecast for Tuesday night...

Tuesday Night

A chance of rain showers before 3am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%

Voyager, you really have stolen winter from us this year, you turkey you.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GFS is still close enough to keep an eye on for this weekend.

This run gets precip to the southern tier of PA and a dusting of snow to the LSV. The good snow is not too far away in the WV panhandle this run.

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS is still close enough to keep an eye on for this weekend.

This run gets precip to the southern tier of PA and a dusting on snow to the LSV. The good snow is not too far away in the WV panhandle this run.

[Itstrainingtime]

51 this morning. High for the day will likely 61 just after midnight.

[Bubbler86]

46 and super windy here. 

[pasnownut]

29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS is still close enough to keep an eye on for this weekend.

This run gets precip to the southern tier of PA and a dusting of snow to the LSV. The good snow is not too far away in the WV panhandle this run.

I hope you can find the diamond in the rough, but boy it looks pretty rough pal.  As suggested a couple days ago and mag just restated, this one needs good precip to overcome marginal (at best) thermal issues.  IF we stay on northern fringe, I'm just not getting the warm fuzzies about snow down here.  Like mag said, elevations west and sw of us should be excited, but us lsv'rs notsomuch.

[pasnownut]

But....as its friday and noones gonna rain on my parade

tellies have gone from dumpster fire to slightly less horrible as we get beyond next week.  Still not a good look, but hoping next weeks progression gets MJO through warm phases, and AO now showing a drop into week 2.  NAO still meh but lets see IF this can morph into a better look in the final 1/3 of Waiting for Winter 23'.

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

36 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

51 this morning. High for the day will likely 61 just after midnight.

Meanwhile...here in beautiful Rehoboth Beach, DE it's currently mostly sunny, a bit brisk but a mild 63. Truly feels like a late spring morning and seems weird not to see the boardwalk shops lined up with vacationers eating breakfast.