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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I posted and deleted when your post popped on.   Everything seemed to change with the first low that started raining on us Wed.  Left mora high is in the right spe energy behind that carved out something in the trough behind it. 

Yes and the high is in the right spot. 

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11 minutes ago, paweather said:

Next Saturday:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

Lol.  Looks like the GFS it hittin the sauce a tad early today.  And while I/we wanna believe....toggle back the last 4 runs and you'll see why I'm a tad nervous to push chips in (although the weenie in me is all in).

I'd take my 3" and like it.....

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@paweather is really slacking today....part timer!  It will be different in 6 hours but the downer mode can use some hope.   On that first storm for next week, comparing the GFS to the CMC, the Canadian is much slower and more wound up with the mid to late week cutter and does not appear to leave some energy behind like the GFS does...that is my non-Met take on it. 

image.png.1c20efb16ff4cd09ce160e7d8368db0b.png

 

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@paweather is really slacking today....part timer!  It will be different in 6 hours but the downer mode can use some hope.   On that first storm for next week, comparing the GFS to the CMC, the Canadian is much slower and more wound up with the mid to late week cutter and does not appear to leave some energy behind like the GFS does...that is my non-Met take on it. 

image.png.1c20efb16ff4cd09ce160e7d8368db0b.png

 

Thanks for posting

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@MAG5035 To magnify your point on how much the laurels have struggled snowwise, Hidden Valley recorded 7.52” of precip for the month of January and Laurel Summit had 26.2” of snow for the month. These are both the highest recorded numbers in the state for January(state climatologist) With that much qpf available only yielding 26.2” of snow in that area, it’s truly been a struggle.   

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4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

@MAG5035 To magnify your point on how much the laurels have struggled snowwise, Hidden Valley recorded 7.52” of precip for the month of January and Laurel Summit had 26.2” of snow for the month. These are both the highest recorded numbers in the state for January(state climatologist) With that much qpf available only yielding 26.2” of snow in that area, it’s truly been a struggle.   

They picked up exactly 5 more inches of precip than MDT did!   MDT came in at a 1/2" deficit. 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

They picked up exactly 5 more inches of precip than MDT did!   MDT came in at a 1/2" deficit. 

I had 2.59” so pretty close to MDT.  Another eye popper is the state low temp for Jan was 8 in Crawford County but we did manage to get a 68 for highest temp in Washington county.  

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1 hour ago, paweather said:

Now lets see what the EURO says. 

Euro says just what i stated yesterday....congrats Chicago (and not in a congratulatory way as its mostly rain). 

And after that dumpster fire, dont worry, there's another dumpster fire getting ready to cut way friggin west at a hunch as model run was still ongoing, but you can see the ridging popping behind the pooper that is slated for next friday. 

edit.....#2 (saturday/sunday)starts south but is likely going to cause issues, so put your hopes in that basket.  

In summary...we get shafted 2x

 

 

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10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Euro says just what i stated yesterday....congrats Chicago (and not in a congratulatory way as its mostly rain). 

And after that dumpster fire, dont worry, there's another dumpster fire getting ready to cut way friggin west at a hunch as model run was still ongoing, but you can see the ridging popping behind the pooper that is slated for next weekend. 

In summary...we get shafted 2x

 

 

Kind of figured that would happen that will set the stage up for the 18z GFS to cut.

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4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Kind of figured that would happen that will set the stage up for the 18z GFS to cut.

I edited a bit cause #2 wasnt quite as bad as it looked early on, but for eastern 1/3 of pa, we are all rain, so for me it doesnt really matter.  Norther westers may be ok w/ it (verbatim). 

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