Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[mahantango#1]

16 here.

[WmsptWx]

If that stupid rat sees his shadow, he should be cancelled.

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[mahantango#1]

6 more weeks of this so called winter

 

 

 

[WmsptWx]

Cancel the motherfucker now.

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[mahantango#1]

10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Cancel the motherfucker now.

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[mahantango#1]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/02/01/groundhog-day-spring-winter-2023/?fbclid=IwAR0HmzSLZdq6FpF8AhZ7tqZ_xXStQtZ3ZEmMyUBYqPlnVETJ49dR0qGukLA

[Bubbler86]

30 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

6 more weeks of this so called winter

 

 

 

All the people that cancelled receive their comeuppance from a furry critter. LOL

[mahantango#1]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

All the people that cancelled receive their comeuppance from a furry critter. LOL

I wonder if Blizz was out there at Gobblers Knob shining a spotlight so Phil would see his shadow?

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

22 this AM.  2 Eastern PA snowstorms on the GFS at 6Z. 

PSUHoffman jackpot. 

Seems legit!

[ChescoWx]

Yesterday was only our 2nd below normal day of the year. We only experienced 1 below normal day in January that being on January 14. Well for a contrast it looks like we will start the 1st 4 days of February with well below normal temps until we get back to near and then above normal by Sunday. The coldest day looks to be Saturday with a low around 10 degrees and a high in the mid 20's.

A dry period is on tap with no precipitation in the forecast till later next week at the earliest.

The record high for today is 60 degrees from 1967. Our record low is 6 below zero from 1918. Record melted precipitation is 1.69" from 1897 and the record daily snow is the 8.5" that fell in 1897.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

22 this AM.  2 Eastern PA snowstorms on the GFS at 6Z. 

Congrats Akron. 

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, canderson said:

Congrats Akron. 

I stir shit up and the weather gods respond accordingly...

Dont worry, those 2 diggy snows will be in chicago for nooners.

[WmsptWx]

From psuhoffman on the MA "Is it ever going to snow again?" thread. My eyes dried out reading this, but my god. Get that guy in here more often.

@Ji You know I am not a climate crusader on here.  My concern (on here) is only related to one specific thing on here and that is our snowfall. And it's related to 3 specific factors (Pac Hadley Cell expansion, MJO changes, and the prevalence of the SE ridge) that have all been linked to the recent warming SST's.  If it makes you feel better you can pretend its a cyclical thing and this recent SST warming is not at all related to AGW.  I don't need to go there as when it comes to my discussions on here it is 100% related to our snowfall and factors impacting it whether they are cyclical or a longer term trend is irrelevant to how they impact us RIGHT NOW.  If you read to the end of this there is a nugget you might even like, I promise!
@MDScienceTeacher I do not think the couple degrees of warming in the atmosphere is primarily to blame for our struggles.  What I think is having a bigger impact are 3 specific side affects of warming.  Specifically the warming waters.  3 affects of that are directly impacting our snowfall in a negative correlation imo.
1) The expanding indo-pac warm pool is affecting the MJO in a way hostile to our snowfall.  Due to the impacts of warmer waters there the MJO is being suppressed in phases 1-2 and enhanced it phases 3-5.  Phases 1-2 correlate to troughs in the eastern US and phases 3-5 correlate to an eastern ridge.
2) The warmer waters in general are correlated to the expansion of the pacific hadley cell.  This is having 2 negative impacts.  It is encouraging a central pacific ridge which sets up a hostile wavelength for cold in the eastern US, and its shifting the whole thermal boundary in the Pac north, which means when we do get a somewhat hostile flow off the pacific, the air is even warmer.  Pac puke is getting worse.  Worse than that I see signs that even a mix of pac and continental polar air, a mix that used to work for us, is becoming hostile because the pac part of that equation is so warm it dominates the equation. 
3) The warming Gulf and Atlantic waters have been correlated with enhancing the SE ridge.  Any wave approaching across the CONUS has more heat to draw upon in the southerly flow ahead of it.  This will push the boundary north and pump the ridge changing the storm path further north.  
All 3 of these factors are in a feedback loop working against us.  All 3 in tandem are enhancing the SE ridge and pushing the boundary north.  The first 2 are affecting what kind of airmasses are likely to even be available over North America.  Together I think these 3 specific factors, which are side affects of the recent warming, are severely hurting our snow prospects here.  
@cbmclean @jayyy I can't say for sure exactly how much these factors have degraded our longer term chances for snow and how much have been a convergence of a cyclical down period with these CC issues.  But here is my best educated guess.   I do think we have had a relatively unfavorable period that would have been a down cycle in any era.  But I also think this down period is worse because of these factors.  Much worse.  I also think the last up period was already somewhat suppressed here.  We did not do as well in the last 2 "snowy" periods in the early 2000s and early 2010's as places a little colder and less latitudinally challenged.  We decoupled for example with places like NYC.  What I mean is...there was always a pretty consistent relationship between DC or Baltimore and some cities that got more snow in that they should, over a set period, get 30% more snow.  Then suddenly they were getting 75% more snow!  And it happened over 2 decades!  I don't think that was a fluke...we were already not taking as much advantage of the last 2 snowy cycles as colder places were.  I think that is likely to continue.  There will probably be another "snowy" cycle ahead but there is a real chance for us it will be muted and yes we will do better than we have been...I don't think DC will continue to average 7" a season, but maybe in the next snowy period DC averages 15" instead of 20 or 25" in past 7 year snowy periods.  
The reason for my thoughts on this are I do think we will get years where the dominant pattern is so favorable it can offset these negative factors I listed above.  But those factors will still fight and so we might still lose out on some snow we might have got before those factors were all lined up against us.  But will a year like 2003 and 2010 suddenly be awful with like 5", I doubt that, god I hope not.  My guess is the really good years will still be really good.  And I do agree with @brooklynwx99 that there will be instances where warming enhances our snowfall and we might get a 20" snowstorm that would only have been 12" in the past...but I think on the whole that is not worth it and these changes are a net negative.  We are hurt way more than we are helped.  
@Ji @Maestrobjwa @WxUSAF here is one nugget of hope...I have read a study that hypothesizes that as the oceans continue to warm as a whole...eventually the affects of the indo-pac warm pool will be muted and the longer term impact of warming might be to enhance MJO waves into the central and eastern pacific which are cold phase locations.  I obviously had no part in this study but it makes logical sense to me.  Right now one part of the ocean has warmed faster and is enhancing convection in places we don't want it.  But as the whole ocean warms more the overall impact could just be a stronger wave in general which would make it more likely these waves make it into phase 7-8-1, which historically are the hardest locations for MJO waves to sustain.  This could be a net benefit to us at some point in the future assuming the whole thermal profile of the northern hemisphere isn't too wrecked by that point for it to matter.  


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[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

From psuhoffman on the MA "Is it ever going to snow again?" thread. My eyes dried out reading this, but my god. Get that guy in here more often.

@Ji You know I am not a climate crusader on here.  My concern (on here) is only related to one specific thing on here and that is our snowfall. And it's related to 3 specific factors (Pac Hadley Cell expansion, MJO changes, and the prevalence of the SE ridge) that have all been linked to the recent warming SST's.  If it makes you feel better you can pretend its a cyclical thing and this recent SST warming is not at all related to AGW.  I don't need to go there as when it comes to my discussions on here it is 100% related to our snowfall and factors impacting it whether they are cyclical or a longer term trend is irrelevant to how they impact us RIGHT NOW.  If you read to the end of this there is a nugget you might even like, I promise!
@MDScienceTeacher I do not think the couple degrees of warming in the atmosphere is primarily to blame for our struggles.  What I think is having a bigger impact are 3 specific side affects of warming.  Specifically the warming waters.  3 affects of that are directly impacting our snowfall in a negative correlation imo.
1) The expanding indo-pac warm pool is affecting the MJO in a way hostile to our snowfall.  Due to the impacts of warmer waters there the MJO is being suppressed in phases 1-2 and enhanced it phases 3-5.  Phases 1-2 correlate to troughs in the eastern US and phases 3-5 correlate to an eastern ridge.
2) The warmer waters in general are correlated to the expansion of the pacific hadley cell.  This is having 2 negative impacts.  It is encouraging a central pacific ridge which sets up a hostile wavelength for cold in the eastern US, and its shifting the whole thermal boundary in the Pac north, which means when we do get a somewhat hostile flow off the pacific, the air is even warmer.  Pac puke is getting worse.  Worse than that I see signs that even a mix of pac and continental polar air, a mix that used to work for us, is becoming hostile because the pac part of that equation is so warm it dominates the equation. 
3) The warming Gulf and Atlantic waters have been correlated with enhancing the SE ridge.  Any wave approaching across the CONUS has more heat to draw upon in the southerly flow ahead of it.  This will push the boundary north and pump the ridge changing the storm path further north.  
All 3 of these factors are in a feedback loop working against us.  All 3 in tandem are enhancing the SE ridge and pushing the boundary north.  The first 2 are affecting what kind of airmasses are likely to even be available over North America.  Together I think these 3 specific factors, which are side affects of the recent warming, are severely hurting our snow prospects here.  
@cbmclean @jayyy I can't say for sure exactly how much these factors have degraded our longer term chances for snow and how much have been a convergence of a cyclical down period with these CC issues.  But here is my best educated guess.   I do think we have had a relatively unfavorable period that would have been a down cycle in any era.  But I also think this down period is worse because of these factors.  Much worse.  I also think the last up period was already somewhat suppressed here.  We did not do as well in the last 2 "snowy" periods in the early 2000s and early 2010's as places a little colder and less latitudinally challenged.  We decoupled for example with places like NYC.  What I mean is...there was always a pretty consistent relationship between DC or Baltimore and some cities that got more snow in that they should, over a set period, get 30% more snow.  Then suddenly they were getting 75% more snow!  And it happened over 2 decades!  I don't think that was a fluke...we were already not taking as much advantage of the last 2 snowy cycles as colder places were.  I think that is likely to continue.  There will probably be another "snowy" cycle ahead but there is a real chance for us it will be muted and yes we will do better than we have been...I don't think DC will continue to average 7" a season, but maybe in the next snowy period DC averages 15" instead of 20 or 25" in past 7 year snowy periods.  
The reason for my thoughts on this are I do think we will get years where the dominant pattern is so favorable it can offset these negative factors I listed above.  But those factors will still fight and so we might still lose out on some snow we might have got before those factors were all lined up against us.  But will a year like 2003 and 2010 suddenly be awful with like 5", I doubt that, god I hope not.  My guess is the really good years will still be really good.  And I do agree with @brooklynwx99 that there will be instances where warming enhances our snowfall and we might get a 20" snowstorm that would only have been 12" in the past...but I think on the whole that is not worth it and these changes are a net negative.  We are hurt way more than we are helped.  
@Ji @Maestrobjwa @WxUSAF here is one nugget of hope...I have read a study that hypothesizes that as the oceans continue to warm as a whole...eventually the affects of the indo-pac warm pool will be muted and the longer term impact of warming might be to enhance MJO waves into the central and eastern pacific which are cold phase locations.  I obviously had no part in this study but it makes logical sense to me.  Right now one part of the ocean has warmed faster and is enhancing convection in places we don't want it.  But as the whole ocean warms more the overall impact could just be a stronger wave in general which would make it more likely these waves make it into phase 7-8-1, which historically are the hardest locations for MJO waves to sustain.  This could be a net benefit to us at some point in the future assuming the whole thermal profile of the northern hemisphere isn't too wrecked by that point for it to matter.  


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I think CC really just serves to increase variance. we've been stuck in Ninas pretty much since 2015-16 (5 in the last 7 years), and those will dump troughs into the west and try and force a SE ridge, so it's no surprise that the MA hasn't done well, especially when CC is involved. however, once we flip back to a general Nino base state, which may occur next year, I would expect the same kind of anomalous weather as the West has been seeing. there's no reason to think otherwise

looking at the last 6 years from Dec-Feb, we can see all of the anomalous cold has been dumped into the NW US and Plains, which is what Ninas usually do. once we flip back to a good stretch of Ninos, I wouldn't be shocked to see the anomalies flip more to what we saw from 2009-10 to 2014-15, where much of the cold was in the E US with warmth over the WC

so, overall, I do think that the band will snap the other way, so to speak, over the next year or two. would make little sense for it not to. it's also a bit of people trying to rationalize a shitty stretch of winters, when in reality, they just happen sometimes, and we've been tremendously spoiled over the last 10-15 years. it's not like the earth has profoundly changed in the last 5-10 years... CC doesn't act that quickly

[FPizz]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think CC really just serves to increase variance. we've been stuck in Ninas pretty much since 2015-16 (5 in the last 7 years), and those will dump troughs into the west and try and force a SE ridge, so it's no surprise that the MA hasn't done well, especially when CC is involved. however, once we flip back to a general Nino base state, which may occur next year, I would expect the same kind of anomalous weather as the West has been seeing. there's no reason to think otherwise

looking at the last 6 years from Dec-Feb, we can see all of the anomalous cold has been dumped into the NW US and Plains, which is what Ninas usually do. once we flip back to a good stretch of Ninos, I wouldn't be shocked to see the anomalies flip more to what we saw from 2009-10 to 2014-15, where much of the cold was in the E US with warmth over the WC

so, overall, I do think that the band will snap the other way, so to speak, over the next year or two. would make little sense for it not to. it's also a bit of people trying to rationalize a shitty stretch of winters, when in reality, they just happen sometimes, and we've been tremendously spoiled over the last 10-15 years. it's not like the earth has profoundly changed in the last 5-10 years... CC doesn't act that quickly

Is being in a nina state also why it seems like clipper systems have disappeared?  Since everything is dumping in to the west (most of time)?

[Bubbler86]

47 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think CC really just serves to increase variance. we've been stuck in Ninas pretty much since 2015-16 (5 in the last 7 years), and those will dump troughs into the west and try and force a SE ridge, so it's no surprise that the MA hasn't done well, especially when CC is involved. however, once we flip back to a general Nino base state, which may occur next year, I would expect the same kind of anomalous weather as the West has been seeing. there's no reason to think otherwise

looking at the last 6 years from Dec-Feb, we can see all of the anomalous cold has been dumped into the NW US and Plains, which is what Ninas usually do. once we flip back to a good stretch of Ninos, I wouldn't be shocked to see the anomalies flip more to what we saw from 2009-10 to 2014-15, where much of the cold was in the E US with warmth over the WC

so, overall, I do think that the band will snap the other way, so to speak, over the next year or two. would make little sense for it not to. it's also a bit of people trying to rationalize a shitty stretch of winters, when in reality, they just happen sometimes, and we've been tremendously spoiled over the last 10-15 years. it's not like the earth has profoundly changed in the last 5-10 years... CC doesn't act that quickly

There were some charts posted by Don S, on the MA forum, which showed a continued downward trend to both snow amounts and the "snow season" at DCA over the last 100+ years.  Information like that is hard to debate as much as CC may be.  I definitely do not think winter is done for the MA or PA going forward in time (years) but it would be hard for me to argue that the average snow season/cold (avg temps) when looked at per decade or longer would snap back to what was seen 50/100 years ago based on that Don S Tweet.  I think there may be more than some credence to your thought that some of our recent (last 20 years) run of big snows could possibly be attributed to some warming in a similar manner to people who say the melting polar cap will make ocean waters cooler. 

[Bubbler86]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

Congrats Akron. 

You, and those that jokingly said it will be gone in 6 hours, had the right idea but congrats Bermuda instead.  The potential system is in part squashed by a stronger than previously forecast cold push/High.  Quite cold for SB Sunday though. Ha

[Superstorm]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yuu, and those that jokingly said it will be gone in 6 hours, had the right idea but congrats Bermuda instead.  The potential system is squashed by a stronger than previously forecast cold push/High.  Quite cold for SB Sunday though. Ha

If it ain't gonna snow, I rather have it in the 50s so I can grill some steaks while waiting for the game to start.

Cold is only fun when you know it is setting up the stage for a snowstorm.  I am dreading this cold blast coming in this weekend. 

[paweather]

9 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

If it ain't gonna snow, I rather have it in the 50s so I can grill some steaks while waiting for the game to start.

Cold is only fun when you know it is setting up the stage for a snowstorm.  I am dreading this cold blast coming in this weekend. 

Yeah but the cold will be gone in a couple of days. I agree I only want cold with a snowstorm brewing. Next winter will ROCK!!! 

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yeah but the cold will be gone in a couple of days. I agree I only want cold with a snowstorm brewing. Next winter will ROCK!!! 

Speaking of cold, Nooners is Mostly sunny and 34 but winds sustained in the mid teens making the Wind Chill in the low 20's. 

[Bubbler86]

33 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

If it ain't gonna snow, I rather have it in the 50s so I can grill some steaks while waiting for the game to start.

Cold is only fun when you know it is setting up the stage for a snowstorm.  I am dreading this cold blast coming in this weekend. 

[paweather]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Speaking of cold, Nooners is Mostly sunny and 34 but winds sustained in the mid teens making the Wind Chill in the low 20's. 

Nooner 36 and sunny

[Itstrainingtime]

Pre-nooner cloudy and 35. Drip, drip, drip. First time it's cracked 30 let alone freezing since 4pm Monday. 

[Itstrainingtime]

58 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

If it ain't gonna snow, I rather have it in the 50s so I can grill some steaks while waiting for the game to start.

Cold is only fun when you know it is setting up the stage for a snowstorm.  I am dreading this cold blast coming in this weekend. 

I agree with this - never did I think I would until the past few years. I'm now thoroughly enjoying AN temperatures if it isn't going to snow. Much nicer to get out and walk around in.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree with this - never did I think I would until the past few years. I'm now thoroughly enjoying AN temperatures if it isn't going to snow. Much nicer to get out and walk around in.

I also agree with the caveat that I would like the chance of snow in the future during Dec-March.  If it is not going to snow then weather like now (low 20's WC) is simply not comfortable.  I do also fear for plants sprouting early.  The second day of Feb is too early for Spring plants. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I also agree with the caveat that I would like the chance of snow in the future during Dec-March.  If it is not going to snow then weather like now (low 20's WC) is simply not comfortable.  I do also fear for plants sprouting early.  The second day of Feb is too early for Spring plants. 

Yeah, I hate to see early vegetation. And it seems like the more that I've thrown myself into gardening the more aware of it I've become. If we get too warm for a few days over the next few weeks...

#itsmowingtimeagain

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah, I hate to see early vegetation. And it seems like the more that I've thrown myself into gardening the more aware of it I've become. If we get too warm for a few days over the next few weeks...

#itsmowingtimeagain

I need to get a new mower this year, so I am closely watching the timing and sales.  LOL.   Euro has a high of 30ish on Sat and mid 50's on Sunday for this weekend.   Cold retreats quickly. 

[Bubbler86]

12Z Euro has the Super Bowl Sunday Storm Cut initially before being blocked and moving through Central VA.  The lack of cold air already in place with not enough high support means most of the East Coast is toasted too much despite a low taking a track that would "usually" give us snow in mid-Feb.   It is nothing like the GFS so just more day to day changing as yesterday the Euro had an East coast snow at the end of its run. 

[paweather]

35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z Euro has the Super Bowl Sunday Storm Cut initially before being blocked and moving through Central VA.  The lack of cold air already in place with not enough high support means most of the East Coast is toasted too much despite a low taking a track that would "usually" give us snow in mid-Feb.   It is nothing like the GFS so just more day to day changing as yesterday the Euro had an East coast snow at the end of its run. 

yeah, 12z is a rainstorm today. 

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, paweather said:

yeah, 12z is a rainstorm today. 

I am SHOCKED there won't be a legit snowstorm. SHOCKED I tell you.