MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Mean 2m temps ( in ºF) for 12z Saturday via the Euro ensemble mean. The Euro suite has been the coldest guidance in terms of pressing the arctic air south, but both it and the GFS have below zero temps in northern PA and at least minus teens in that Bradford/Smethport region of northern PA, which I suppose could be considered PA’s version of Barrow, AK. Fortunately the worst of the airmass doesn’t directly target our region, and fortunate I guess if you don’t like extreme cold that we are likely to not have any kind of established snowpack of consequence. If we did have one, I could see this being the type of thing that could challenge daily record lows via ideal rad cooling. Euro tries to get NYC below zero. The fact that’s even on the table in a snowless winter to date there is pretty brutal. At any rate, this is a very brief shot that settles in 2nd half of Friday into Saturday. It’s likely to be quick enough that we’ll have non-diurnal temp rises overnight Saturday into Sunday as the glancing arctic air mass moves on. Beyond that, I really don’t have anything positive to report on the winter prospects for a period of time TBD (certainly the D8-15 range that gets into the mid-month timeframe). I mentioned a couple weeks ago the MJO was probably going to have a hand on where things go mid-late February after the end of Jan/first week or so of Feb. Since then, it finally emerged into Phase 3 where it currently resides. Forecasts had been mixed on whether the MJO pulse would fizzle there back into the null phase or go on the 4-5-6 tour and as of late it appears the latter option has become a better consensus.. certainly getting it into 4 at the very least. How fast it gets out of that realm (if it gets there) will play into any kind of attempt of a pattern reshuffle later in Feb. NCEP bias corrected guidance (GEFS) Euro bias corrected: To add to all that, we reverse the -EPO we finally got to a +EPO and run a persistent +AO/NAO and continued -PNA through the period. The former (NAO/AO) retracts true arctic air poleward and the latter (PNA) implies continued western troughing. It looks like a lot more of a traditional +EPO Nina setup. I’m never gonna say winter’s over on Jan 30 but I’m not going to pull any punches when I see a period I think has a high chance of sucking either. Really needed this weeks active southern branch pattern with available cold to produce… which I mean still could to a degree I guess if we can somehow get a piece of something into southern PA. I honestly like the DC folks’ chances better to score something provided they have cold enough temps to snow. Either way, I don’t see anything in the caliber that this setup COULD have produced for our region.. just no interaction between northern and southern branch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 38 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Mean 2m temps ( in ºF) for 12z Saturday via the Euro ensemble mean. The Euro suite has been the coldest guidance in terms of pressing the arctic air south, but both it and the GFS have below zero temps in northern PA and at least minus teens in that Bradford/Smethport region of northern PA, which I suppose could be considered PA’s version of Barrow, AK. Fortunately the worst of the airmass doesn’t directly target our region, and fortunate I guess if you don’t like extreme cold that we are likely to not have any kind of established snowpack of consequence. If we did have one, I could see this being the type of thing that could challenge daily record lows via ideal rad cooling. Euro tries to get NYC below zero. The fact that’s even on the table in a snowless winter to date there is pretty brutal. At any rate, this is a very brief shot that settles in 2nd half of Friday into Saturday. It’s likely to be quick enough that we’ll have non-diurnal temp rises overnight Saturday into Sunday as the glancing arctic air mass moves on. Beyond that, I really don’t have anything positive to report on the winter prospects for a period of time TBD (certainly the D8-15 range that gets into the mid-month timeframe). I mentioned a couple weeks ago the MJO was probably going to have a hand on where things go mid-late February after the end of Jan/first week or so of Feb. Since then, it finally emerged into Phase 3 where it currently resides. Forecasts had been mixed on whether the MJO pulse would fizzle there back into the null phase or go on the 4-5-6 tour and as of late it appears the latter option has become a better consensus.. certainly getting it into 4 at the very least. How fast it gets out of that realm (if it gets there) will play into any kind of attempt of a pattern reshuffle later in Feb. NCEP bias corrected guidance (GEFS) Euro bias corrected: To add to all that, we reverse the -EPO we finally got to a +EPO and run a persistent +AO/NAO and continued -PNA through the period. The former (NAO/AO) retracts true arctic air poleward and the latter (PNA) implies continued western troughing. It looks like a lot more of a traditional +EPO Nina setup. I’m never gonna say winter’s over on Jan 30 but I’m not going to pull any punches when I see a period I think has a high chance of sucking either. Really needed this weeks active southern branch pattern with available cold to produce… which I mean still could to a degree I guess if we can somehow get a piece of something into southern PA. I honestly like the DC folks’ chances better to score something provided they have cold enough temps to snow. Either way, I don’t see anything in the caliber that this setup COULD have produced for our region.. just no interaction between northern and southern branch. You did not type fast enough. LOL. GFS pulled way back on Sig cold for the weekend. Pretty pedestrian on 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 It looks like MDT ended up well short of 60 degrees today as of the 5 pm summary. Not even the new forms of creative rounding gets this high of 54 up to a 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 It looks like MDT ended up well short of 60 degrees today as of the 5 pm summary. Not even the new forms of creative rounding gets this high of 54 up to a 60.Yes, downright frigid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: Yes, downright frigid. Lol, at least we were no where near the record of 70! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It looks like MDT ended up well short of 60 degrees today as of the 5 pm summary. Not even the new forms of creative rounding gets this high of 54 up to a 60. I said they had a chance to get to 60 based on the models predicting temps to be 55-60. Pretty spot on post by me. Cxy got to 57 or 58. You quoted your good friends the nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I said they had a chance to get to 60 based on the models predicting temps to be 55-60. Pretty spot on post by me. Cxy got to 57 or 58. You quoted your good friends the nws. Lol, I quoted the official stats for MDT… The place where the official historic records are kept…. I just love talking heat & torch… I am going find some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I quoted the official stats for MDT… The place where the official historic records are kept…. I just love talking heat & torch… I am going find some snow! MDT got to 54, CXY got to 57 or 58. Even MUI got to 54 or 55. Clouds hung a bit tough though which squelched the chance at 60. Models had the temps getting 55-60 which ended up being pretty spot on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 Remember when the most pressing question that we had on here was, ”When will Winter Storm Watches be hoisted?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 36 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It looks like MDT ended up well short of 60 degrees today as of the 5 pm summary. Not even the new forms of creative rounding gets this high of 54 up to a 60. yep no amount of fudging the numbers could get to 60. but years from now don t be surprised if they say today hit records of 60. just like years ago when those emails leaked saying they rounded numbers up or just flat out lied about numbers for temps. with that said my dad still lives right near the airport and so many times the airport reports temps 3-6 degree's higher then what his backyard says with a old school thermometer and a new digital one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 I found snow on the 18z GFS! On Super Bowl Sunday… Snow in the morning & afternoon and then Championship winning Eagles later that night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 It snowed in 2018 in the morning into the late afternoon the last time that the Eagles won the Super Bowl. We got around 4 inches of snow followed by a layer of ice on top. I remember shoveling the next morning and it was like moving cement, but I felt no pain that day of celebration! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 MAG basically just cancelled winter in his professional, expert language. Save for some dumbass March storm that melts in 12 hours it’s probably time to think about garden plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 11 degrees with light snow and about 6" on the ground at ORD this morning. That picture looks like it could have been from Air Florida Flight 90.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 16 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That picture looks like it could have been from Air Florida Flight 90. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I watched a documentary on that flight a few months ago. No shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Rain is starting to freeze here now - 31 on my car thermometer. Now expecting up to .75" of ice... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I don't know whether to laugh at this, or cry for you guys. How pathetic... Tamaqua: Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 23. Blustery. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 0. Blustery. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 15. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 Great post in the Mid Atlantic thread…this makes sense….why not? “Every time the pattern has looked good on the ensembles it’s pretty much turned to crap. So why is it everyone just buys a bad looking pattern?” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great post in the Mid Atlantic thread…this makes sense….why not? “Every time the pattern has looked good on the ensembles it’s pretty much turned to crap. So why is it everyone just buys a bad looking pattern?” We aren't "buying" anything - overall, the pattern has been bad for the past couple of years. That's a fact. Doesn't mean it can't snow in a bad pattern but that doesn't change the fact that overall...it hasn't been good. And there's no reason to think it's not going to get worse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Ice capades all over Texas. Parents’ have 1/4” ice on every surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 minute ago, canderson said: Ice capades all over Texas. Parents’ have 1/4” ice on every surface. I'm 60 miles NE of Little Rock and everything is shutting down. The 30 minute local news was 25 minutes of weather coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm 60 miles NE of Little Rock and everything is shutting down. The 30 minute local news was 25 minutes of weather coverage. Everything there is closed until Thursday it sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Everything there is closed until Thursday it sounds like. Yes, exactly right. I'm here to spend 3 days with the HR team down here and it's been reduced to a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes, exactly right. I'm here to spend 3 days with the HR team down here and it's been reduced to a day. Bad timing. Sounds like my planned trips! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 40 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: We aren't "buying" anything - overall, the pattern has been bad for the past couple of years. That's a fact. Doesn't mean it can't snow in a bad pattern but that doesn't change the fact that overall...it hasn't been good. And there's no reason to think it's not going to get worse. I was quoting someone else’s general thought and it made sense to me. No one has a crystal ball. Who knows what the second half of February will look like? I think this poster that I quoted was merely musing that things have not worked out for the good when 10 to 15 days out the pattern was supposed to improve a few times this year. His point is simply that it could work the other way. Maybe it won’t be so bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 Sure, it’s much easier to protect yourself and just say “it’s over”, but I choose to fight on and not give up on Winter until early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 Also, quick calendar check…it’s January 30th, not March 30th, but sure, go ahead & give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 I think that it’s a good time to review the Harrisburg seasonal snowfall totals since 1980. We have been very spoiled with snow for most of the last decade. THAT’S A FACT ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 hours ago, canderson said: MAG basically just cancelled winter in his professional, expert language. Save for some dumbass March storm that melts in 12 hours it’s probably time to think about garden plans. Yeah things were not looking good for the extended last week already, but I was hoping a little more time and correction might play in our favor, and the tellies would hold a bit longer for us. Not the case once again. Is what it is, and if there is any consolation, the whole friggin east coast is with us (save the favored snow belts - and they are runnin way behind as well). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great post in the Mid Atlantic thread…this makes sense….why not? “Every time the pattern has looked good on the ensembles it’s pretty much turned to crap. So why is it everyone just buys a bad looking pattern?” Because so far this year, when a "good" pattern has been showing up on ens guidance, it often is muted or wasted as we cant get NS and SS to work in tandem, or the depth of cold/trough lose amplitude as we get closer to showtime. When a bad pattern shows, it usually verifies. Sorry pal....but ya just cant polish a turd and make it look good. Not saying we cant sneak a couple events in (like mid to late week as I suggested earlier), but the odds are not stacked in our favor, and being prime time for snow, its troubling for us winter enthusiasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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