paweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 1:27 AM, GrandmasterB said: Melt - Short for meltdown like trainingtime’s this morning. I’m selling 3-4 down here. State College? Sure. But since last night’s great Euro run all trends have been to hold off on precip down here until it’s too warm. Expand I haven’t seen that at all. Sorry maybe your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Paweather, look at the map just posted. Vast majority of Lanco is less than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 1:40 AM, Itstrainingtime said: Not many models show 3-4" where we live. We don't all live north of the turnpike. Also, the trend is not our friend. Right now I'd be highly skeptical of 3-4" in Palmyra but I don't know anything. LOL Expand Neither do I. I’ll remain optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 1:42 AM, paweather said: Neither do I. I’ll remain optimistic Expand You're south of the turnpike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 I’m rooting for a 0z comeback for Lancaster county to make our posters there happy….and for the sake of our board…Lol! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 1:46 AM, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m rooting for a 0z comeback got Lancaster county to make our posters there happy….and for the sake of our board…Lol! Expand Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 1:44 AM, Itstrainingtime said: You're south of the turnpike? Expand I’m right on the line a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 1:46 AM, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m rooting for a 0z comeback for Lancaster county to make our posters there happy….and for the sake of our board…Lol! Expand Let’s go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Here’s the 18z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 1:42 AM, paweather said: Neither do I. I’ll remain optimistic Expand Yeah, I’m definitely cool with the optimism. My posts aren’t directed at anyone, just general venting. This season has been awful which is annoying. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Here is CTP’s latest “Expected” snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 1:57 AM, GrandmasterB said: Yeah, I’m definitely cool with the optimism. My posts aren’t directed at anyone, just general venting. This season has been awful which is annoying. Expand Your good! I understand for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 If MDT gets more than 2” I’ll be shocked and happy. If it’s less than .5” I won’t be shocked or upset. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 2:03 AM, canderson said: If MDT gets more than 2” I’ll be shocked and happy. If it’s less than .5” I won’t be shocked or upset. Expand Every model has MDT over 3 inches at this time…. But….I’m happy to see this from you… we always do well when you make a post like this every event of every year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 2:05 AM, Blizzard of 93 said: Every model has MDT over 3 inches at this time…. But….I’m happy to see this from you… we always do well when you make a post like this every event of every year! Expand We also have the 2 weeks in Feb that should be very good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The NAM looks like a line of thunderstorms that turns to snow in our area. Whatever falls will be heavy for a few hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Hopefully the 0z NAM is just doing NAM things… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 2:27 AM, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully the 0z NAM is just doing NAM things… Expand About the same as 18Z here. Beefed up for true central though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 I’ll take it! 3:4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 I just went through that entire 18z GFS run. If that run magically took place, it would rival February 2010 for the LSV. Suddenly we would all exceed our climo average snow by February 8th, with plenty of time to score more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 2:33 AM, paweather said: I’ll take it! 3:4 I'll sign now. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 2:33 AM, paweather said: I’ll take it! 3:4 Expand Gotta remember those tropical tidbits maps include sleet with their totals. Here is the 12k and 3k NAM with 10:1 snowfall 12k NAM 3k NAM Most of central below I-80 and Sus Valley have some amount of pingers and some ZR. I was going to credit the NAM for seeing the separated/disorganized nature of yesterday’s storm pretty early on in the short range.. and now it pulls this for this system, which I don’t buy the lack of front end snow below I-80 currently. That’d be a huge bust for the middle of PA where CTP has their highest forecasted totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 1:48 AM, paweather said: I’m right on the line a bit north You’re palmyra area right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 0Z GFS a tick snowier down here. About the same as 18Z for true central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The good news (for me / Cumberland) is NWS has added "The Snow may be Heavy at Times" to Wednesday. The bad news is that they took the previous 3-5" of total snow down to 1 - 3". Wow. Maybe they got shell-shocked by the 0Z NAM's that basically give me less than 1" for the storm total? The roller coaster continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 CTP discussion make me think they continue to trim back LSV totals, which now are 1-2” for MDT. Wouldn’t be surprised if they end up bit predicting any accumulation on for a decent part of Lancaster/York counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 On 1/24/2023 at 4:34 AM, canderson said: CTP discussion make me think they continue to trim back LSV totals, which now are 1-2” for MDT. Wouldn’t be surprised if they end up bit predicting any accumulation on for a decent part of Lancaster/York counties. Expand Yep same. I'm still very skeptical we get very much around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 UK…. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 NAM is god awful too. Smh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 CTP has headlines up, I was wondering how much of the central they were going to consider for watches. 4-6” is the snow amount forecast for the whole watch area. It has been looking like 6” may end up being the ceiling for the most part… reflective on the new probability products CTP has where best 6+ probs (30-40%) have shifted north to center on the UNV to IPT part of true central. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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