pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Excuse the mouse drawn arrow. LOL As some of us have suggested over the last few days, that HP holds the key to the winter toy chest for the mid week event. Every little bit further south (or holding and not retreating) is gonna be extra time frozen for the central mtns/easter folks. CAD for the win (well maybe just a small victory). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is not going to be the vibe of a typical post of mine. This winter is wearing on me. We had one snow at home (about 1") which I missed entirely while I was at work. It snowed a second time (about .25") while I slept and missed again. (though I did see some remnants in the morning. Today I started my day at home as I got home very late last night and had early meetings this morning, which I took from home. I was up at 5:30 and saw rain. It rained up until the time I left. Between 7 and 8 there was a mix, but it never flipped to snow (I clearly was lacking rates at this point) and it was never even close to moderate. On my way to work I did see the hills south of Wrightsville were VERY white...clearly more than a coating. The only other evidence of snow I saw was a little bit on Chickies between the trail parking lot and the day care center on the south side. Nothing at all anywhere else, and nothing at home other than some mixed flakes with the rain. Happy that you got to see some nice snow falling. But this winter just flat out sucks. And there's nothing anyone can say at this point to convince me otherwise. I feel for those down here in the southern part of Lanco who are STILL shutout on the season. On to Wednesday... its been tough sledding for us and very understandable for the glum feelings. I at least got to see snow on my drive in this am, and some white ground north of Manheim. As we've been chatting about for a little now, we look to be heading into a period where enough is aligned in our favor to maybe eek out a couple events before EOM. After that....we'll lets just enjoy the next 2 weeks and see where things go. chin up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 to add to the mid week convo and what Bubbler was just pointing out above CAD feature really showing up nicely on nooner NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Lost in my pity puddle rant - .78" of rain for the event (it was still raining when I left home) of which .49" fell yesterday, and .29" additional since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is not going to be the vibe of a typical post of mine. This winter is wearing on me. We had one snow at home (about 1") which I missed entirely while I was at work. It snowed a second time (about .25") while I slept and missed again. (though I did see some remnants in the morning. Today I started my day at home as I got home very late last night and had early meetings this morning, which I took from home. I was up at 5:30 and saw rain. It rained up until the time I left. Between 7 and 8 there was a mix, but it never flipped to snow (I clearly was lacking rates at this point) and it was never even close to moderate. On my way to work I did see the hills south of Wrightsville were VERY white...clearly more than a coating. The only other evidence of snow I saw was a little bit on Chickies between the trail parking lot and the day care center on the south side. Nothing at all anywhere else, and nothing at home other than some mixed flakes with the rain. Happy that you got to see some nice snow falling. But this winter just flat out sucks. And there's nothing anyone can say at this point to convince me otherwise. I feel for those down here in the southern part of Lanco who are STILL shutout on the season. On to Wednesday... Hang in there big fella! (just a colloquialism, have no idea as to your actual stature haha). I'm genuinely shocked you didn't see more action than that this morning (insert crude joke here). It was legitimately snowing here for multiple hours. Hey, maybe that extra 100' of elevation I gained from my move is finally paying off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 and my last snipper WRT NAM, we hold thermals through 57hrs on NAM, and most precip has fallen by that time, so while we might taint, verbatim were in the frozen category, and not just wet. Beyond that there is a short period of rain, but temps at 33 -36 may be cold enough to hang onto whatever falls. Sometimes life about celebrating the small victories and not the BIG Win (like the Eagles had yesterday... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Lost in my pity puddle rant - .78" of rain for the event (it was still raining when I left home) of which .49" fell yesterday, and .29" additional since midnight. I was in CT this morning, but my ring cam showed snow cover on grass, roof and cars. I’m just north of Willow Street.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Hang in there big fella! (just a colloquialism, have no idea as to your actual stature haha). I'm genuinely shocked you didn't see more action than that this morning (insert crude joke here). It was legitimately snowing here for multiple hours. Hey, maybe that extra 100' of elevation I gained from my move is finally paying off It was simply a rate issue - it was precipitating and there was some snow mixing in for sure - just wasn't heavy enough to flip over. It's all but a guarantee that I see a lot of snow in May. Can't often say that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 CTP comin out guns blazin'WednesdaySnow, mainly after 7am. High near 35. Breezy, with a southeast wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 CTP's first call for here Wednesday is 1-3" - that sounds very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Here's the HBG forecast as of now: Wednesday Snow before 1pm, then rain, possibly mixed with snow. High near 38. Light east wind becoming southeast 12 to 17 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night Rain likely before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I'll take 3-5ins (thats what she said) 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 44 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I was in CT this morning, but my ring cam showed snow cover on grass, roof and cars. I’m just north of Willow Street. . No snow in Millersville today: (Elliott) The first measurable snow of the season *should* occur on Wednesday at @millersvilleu.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I'll take 3-5ins (thats what she said)No she didn't. All women are size queens. They all want the 12-24 or nothing. Quit lying to yourself, short-stack.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 12z ICON sends the initial WAA thump north of LSV: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: No she didn't. All women are size queens. They all want the 12-24 or nothing. Quit lying to yourself, short-stack. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk feed me that monster sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: 12z ICON sends the initial WAA thump north of LSV: Be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried about that initial tongue of moisture being too far to our north, have seen it showing up on quite a few models. GFS at 12z has also cut totals a bit for the entire region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 No snow in Millersville today: (Elliott) The first measurable snow of the season *should* occur on Wednesday at @millersvilleu.. Yep, it was all about rates.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried about that initial tongue of moisture being too far to our north, have seen it showing up on quite a few models. GFS at 12z has also cut totals a bit for the entire region.Usually when you start seeing that, we are heading in wrong direction.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 When are Winter Storm Warning going to be posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried about that initial tongue of moisture being too far to our north, have seen it showing up on quite a few models. GFS at 12z has also cut totals a bit for the entire region. GFS didnt trend any better, and thermals retreated a skosh. Still not horrible, but was hoping to see that trend continue. Just an observation of 1 run tho. Other nooners still look ok on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I will add that I'm liking where the Op runs are headed into the weekend though. Looks like the cold press is legit and still a steady stream of chances incoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 When are Winter Storm Warning going to be posted? Thursday Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I thought GFS at least held serve down here. Certainly cut back for true central but I wouldn’t be too worried there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 And just like that my 3/4 of an inch of paste is melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Be lying if I said I wasn't a bit worried about that initial tongue of moisture being too far to our north, have seen it showing up on quite a few models. GFS at 12z has also cut totals a bit for the entire region. I’ve seen that before when nowcasting radar. Precip is streaming well north while the thermals are getting wrecked. Just have to hope it doesn’t play out like that on this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: GFS didnt trend any better, and thermals retreated a skosh. Still not horrible, but was hoping to see that trend continue. Just an observation of 1 run tho. Other nooners still look ok on the front end. Yeah I'm with ya. However, the tail ends of both the FV3 and the 3k NAM also show that overrunning breaking out a bit too far to our north for my liking. Something to keep an eye on. As of now I'm putting the over/under at an inch for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 The Canadian has also shunted totals and moved them further north. Not loving these trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: The Canadian has also shunted totals and moved them further north. Not loving these trends. There were some runs a day or two ago (forget which suite) where that first warm front almost totally missed the LSV so yea, worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I thought GFS at least held serve down here. Certainly cut back for true central but I wouldn’t be too worried there. Yeah I guess its just a little weeble wobbling of the R/S line for the westers that came north. CAD still doin its thingy round here. As we all know, that is often an inevitable trend that seems easy to pick out cause were so used to seeing it. 6z nooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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