Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,911
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Ianlian7
    Newest Member
    Ianlian7
    Joined

Central PA Winter 2022/2023


 Share

Recommended Posts

  On 1/22/2023 at 3:39 PM, Bubbler86 said:

The points about no cold air being around are really spot on.  Just no room for error....still fun to try and find a needle in the haystack (in a realistic way) sometimes vs. just giving up. 

Expand  

Yep that’s it right now with no cold in place. Hope that changes soon. We shall see! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/22/2023 at 3:44 PM, paweather said:

Yep that’s it right now with no cold in place. Hope that changes soon. We shall see! 

Expand  

something to ponder as we move forward.  Even if the cold isnt deep here....it's going to be "closer to us", so that may help front/back action that we all look for.  Whether it antecedent or post storm, the boundary likely sags a bit south from what weve seen, and the models are showing that as green is being replaced by blues for upcoming events.  One other caveat, is that as I suggested a few days ago, and after a quick look at tellies suggest to me that its more of a "window of opportunity" and not a sustained period of fun.  I wish (and hope) that I'm dead nuts wrong on that....trust me.

MJO going into 3

NAO headed +

AO headed +

PNA neut

a snapshot from above indies in my mind suggests a flat/zonal west to WAR once again winning in the east.  Back to cutters as we turn the calendar.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/22/2023 at 3:58 PM, pasnownut said:

something to ponder as we move forward.  Even if the cold isnt deep here....it's going to be "closer to us", so that may help front/back action that we all look for.  Whether it antecedent or post storm, the boundary likely sags a bit south from what weve seen, and the models are showing that as green is being replaced by blues for upcoming events.  One other caveat, is that as I suggested a few days ago, and after a quick look at tellies suggest to me that its more of a "window of opportunity" and not a sustained period of fun.  I wish (and hope) that I'm dead nuts wrong on that....trust me.

MJO going into 3

NAO headed +

AO headed +

PNA neut

a snapshot from above indies in my mind suggests a flat/zonal west to WAR once again winning in the east.  Back to cutters as we turn the calendar.

 

Expand  

The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle.

Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east.

It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch.

I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/22/2023 at 4:14 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle.

Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east.

It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch.

I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday.

Expand  

-EPO to neutral & neutral to -WPO should help as well.

2F6E4CFB-9B2C-4991-B505-1B015665F7B1.png

997D429D-5DD5-4A8F-94A6-E4DB67435E95.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/22/2023 at 4:14 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

The MJO now looks to go into phase 3 & then head back towards the Circle.

Phase 3 centered on February is a cold pattern in the east.

It looks like we might have a chance to avoid the dreaded 4,5 & 6 loop of torch.

I think we will have chances, similar to this Wednesday.

Expand  

While 3 favors cold,

+AO and +NAO do not.

IMO if we can get a zonal look with that base state that would be reasonable.  No doubt we'd be riding the line though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/22/2023 at 6:59 PM, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well, I will officially see frozen here today, as we had a nice little sleet shower just roll through. Hey, we have to embrace the small victories down this way ha. 

Expand  

Hope I see some frozen as well. Maybe need to wait until Wednesday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...