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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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Boy this sure escalated quickly today. I had been reluctant to really pull the trigger on Sunday’s event until I saw some kind of clarity between the GFS/GEFS and everything else, especially in this situation where the GFS was simply taking a primary cutter west of the Apps with little or too late secondary development for us ( a viable outcome considering how the season has gone). Definitely significant that it finally came in line for the most part with Euro/Canadian guidance that had predominantly a coastal low. Presuming that holds in ensuing cycles… focus can start on how much of C-PA this may impact with snow. I still see the LSV (esp Adams/York/Lancaster) as fairly vulnerable in this setup. A slightly inside track from VA into the Delmarva/southern Jersey is would likely straddle the R/S line very close or into southern PA (LSV) during at least a portion of the storm. Obviously a bit more progressive/SE would help that particular area. Those details will get sorted out the next couple days. 

The next one (25th/26th) is definitely one to watch as well, as that will likely take a similar track coming fairly quickly behind Sunday’s system (3-4 days). The gradient might shift a tad south for that system as well. This is a prime opportunity to score once or twice in the next week. There’s likely to be a swath of big snows on the ground for whoever is lucky enough to see it delivered from both systems. 

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  On 1/18/2023 at 8:18 PM, paweather said:

CTP is not looking at the EURO doesn't seem to care outside of the GFS. 

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It would be risky of them to throw up too many alerts at this stage....especially for the LSV.  Would you bet a Benajamin that you will have 19" new inches of snow 7 days from now :-) 

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  On 1/18/2023 at 8:18 PM, paweather said:

CTP is not looking at the EURO doesn't seem to care outside of the GFS. 

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If you were reading the long term portion of their discussion, that has yet to be updated this afternoon (still yesterdays disco).

Edit: They had a bigger long term yesterday which also included tomorrows system and removed that and kept the portion of the discussion referencing the Sunday system. 

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  On 1/18/2023 at 8:25 PM, paweather said:

Gotcha. Didn't realize that. Thanks Mag!

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Your welcome I edited my post but they had a bigger long term yesterday talking about tomorrows system and the Sunday system and all they did was remove the part about tomorrow system today (now in the short term) and kept the part about Sunday there. I’d expect an update for that section in the next couple hours, as they usually do in the later afternoon.

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  On 1/18/2023 at 8:55 PM, GrandmasterB said:

I love to extrapolate the 84hr NAM as much as the next weenie, and the 18Z sure looks good at 84. (Source: am weenie)

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Is AM Weenie at all related to AM Weather?   But I agree, until we have the Nam this is all just fake talk.  Nam or bust.  500 Low/trough west of the Surface that is developing but I do not see a path for it to climb too much there (a good thing for snow here.)   Of course, if it gets to the DelMarVa that is not good for the LSV with the current cold regime.

image.thumb.png.dba3d906b6dab33e696edef79370dd9d.png

 

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  On 1/18/2023 at 9:26 PM, mahantango#1 said:

Good Ole DT changed his tone again. Now he's calling for accumulating snow for Pa. Except the southeast portion of Pa. I didn't know he waffled so much.

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Sometimes he gets stuck on one model and rides it until death.  Sounds like he is model reading like a lot of us. 

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  On 1/18/2023 at 9:20 PM, TheDreamTraveler said:

Well the next week is looking pretty fun. Chances of 2 snowstorms back to back? I actually like those odds. Makes it more likely that at least one of them will happen. We'll still have to see if either will materialize but considering we're within 5 days with one of those storms it definitely has me interested

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Yeah, same. Nice to track a tangible threat…well two actually! Hopefully we all cash on one of them.

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  On 1/18/2023 at 9:25 PM, Bubbler86 said:

HH Icon backed away from its dry powder for LSV 12Z run but it is still in the game.   It actually looks like @MAG5035 painted some of the panels after his latest writeup. 

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18z ICON looks somewhat weaker as it exits the coast - 12z was a little more wound up and was throwing heavier precip back into the eastern half of PA.

With very marginal temps - weaker storm - lighter precip - less white gold and more light rain. (generalization)

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  On 1/18/2023 at 9:34 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

18z ICON looks somewhat weaker as it exits the coast - 12z was a little more wound up and was throwing heavier precip back into the eastern half of PA.

With very marginal temps - weaker storm - lighter precip - less white gold and more light rain. (generalization)

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Yea, sounds like a good call. 

 

The most important HH GFS of 2023 so far is rolling. 

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