Blizzard of 93 Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 Here is a little more perspective… In the fabled Winter of 09-10, we only had 3 Winter storms in central PA. December 09 and the 2 early February storms. They happened to be major storms and that Winter will be forever remembered as epic. We had No snow in January or March! Maybe this year we get 2 great storms in February again and another good storm in early March? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are under 2" here....to me, 2.9" near the midpoint of winter is not much better than 0. In both instances the snow was totally gone at Mdt before the end of the same day. It's a matter of really bad vs horribly bad. And what makes the perception even worse is that it looked to some like we'd be rocking in December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Look back over the decades…. Many of our Winters that end up close to average are made up of a few good weeks of cold & storms. Maybe late January 20th to February 10th will be a good period with a few Warning level events? Then maybe we have 1 more good run from February 20th to March 10th that will bring us to near average for the season. Bottom line…lots of time yet to score snow. I really have not noticed any post suggesting winter is over....beyond suggesting there is not much in the table in the near term. But what happens second half of winter does not change what has happened first half. Second mention but I think the fact that all 2.9" of snow lasted less than 12 hours (except plow piles) after falling is the real indictment on how bad it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are under 2" here....to me, 2.9" near the midpoint of winter is not much better than 0. In both instances the snow was totally gone at Mdt before the end of the same day. Wouldn't it just be peachy if we ended up with a (horned) frog strangler rain storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are under 2" here....to me, 2.9" near the midpoint of winter is not much better than 0. In both instances the snow was totally gone at Mdt before the end of the same day. Lol…we have 3 months yet to score snow. Again….MDT only averages 7.4 inches of snow through today… The majority of our seasonal snow comes in the second half of January, February & March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I really have not noticed any post suggesting winter is over....beyond suggesting there is not much in the table in the near term. But what happens second half of winter does not change what has happened first half. Second mention but I think the fact that all 2.9" of snow lasted less than 12 hours (except plow piles) after falling is the real indictment on how bad it has been. It doesn’t matter to me when or how we get our snow… Lots of time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wouldn't it just be peachy if we ended up with a (horned) frog strangler rain storm. Lol, might get up to 60 or more in that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 For those that can only remember a year or 2 back…. Let’s recall the recent Winter of 20-21. We had the mid December major snowstorm that brought about 11 inches to MDT. That 1 storm put us well above average through at least mid January. Then there was No more snow in December or January until the very last day of the month! The second major storm hit on January 31st into February 1st and brought around 12 inches to MDT. The February snow total was just shy of 20 inches. We ended up with an above average total near 36 inches of snow at MDT thanks mainly to 2 major storms. My point is this… we are only a few chapters in to this Winter season. The book has a long way to go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 I can remember plenty about past winters. The problem is that we are in a shutout pattern when most thought we’d score in December. As psuhoffman keeps bringing up in the Mid-Atlantic forum, even the good looks are not producing snow and that is troubling. Analogs that used to mean east coast snow now do not guarantee what they used to. Not to mention the horrific long range outlook…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: For those that can only remember a year or 2 back…. Let’s recall the recent Winter of 20-21. We had the mid December major snowstorm that brought about 11 inches to MDT. That 1 storm put us well above average through at least mid January. Then there was No more snow in December or January until the very last day of the month! The second major storm hit on January 31st into February 1st and brought around 12 inches to MDT. The February snow total was just shy of 20 inches. We ended up with an above average total near 36 inches of snow at MDT thanks mainly to 2 major storms. My point is this… we are only a few chapters in to this Winter season. The book has a long way to go. I remember every winter back to 1972-ish. To this point, this has been horrible. And yes, we could still end up with 90". Doesn't change or make people's perception wrong now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I remember every winter back to 1972-ish. To this point, this has been horrible. And yes, we could still end up with 90". Doesn't change or make people's perception wrong now. I appreciate your knowledge & perspective on weather in our region over the decades. I realize it’s not good now, but a rough start does not mean that we will end up having a terrible season when the snow counting in done in March or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 It's over. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: It's over. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk The tellies say it is 52-7. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, anotherman said: There is no way to sugarcoat this winter so far. It’s been absolutely pathetic. I’m with you! Pathetic! Might as well head into spring no not cancelling just frustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, paweather said: I’m with you! Pathetic! Might as well head into spring no not cancelling just frustrated Lol….see you at 0z …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 39 minutes ago, anotherman said: I can remember plenty about past winters. The problem is that we are in a shutout pattern when most thought we’d score in December. As psuhoffman keeps bringing up in the Mid-Atlantic forum, even the good looks are not producing snow and that is troubling. Analogs that used to mean east coast snow now do not guarantee what they used to. Not to mention the horrific long range outlook…. Long range outlook looks good from around the 20th onward according to the ensembles. Also, many of us saw a little snow earlier today…so it’s not quite a shut out. It’s not good now, but again, plenty of time to turn it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol….see you at 0z …. Yeah I know I’m being a JI right now. just ready for a statewide snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 It’ll appear when it’s least expected, and sneak up on most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 As far as snow measurements go I guess I am just compensating for something too small to measure . I was known as the Mighty Millimeter on my high school football team. I should have listened to my mother and brought home shorter Pom Pom girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: It’ll appear when it’s least expected, and sneak up on most of us. That is good advice for finding love as well! LOL. 26 here this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 The PAC has been relentless. Until I see that ease up, our chances are very slim to almost none. Although, some say there are signals after the 20th that it will ease up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully we can get something out of this storm later in the week before we wait again for pattern improvement later this month. One of these days a 240+ ens run is going to happen....I just know it. That said, the pattern looks great beyond 240....like it usually does. Nice PNA ridge, and central canada looking cold w/ troughing in east. Someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 11 hours ago, GrandmasterB said: Sharp cutoff to the east. LNS is basically at zero. 2 T’s and maybe a .25. My yard has yet to be whitened this "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 10 hours ago, anotherman said: There is no way to sugarcoat this winter so far. It’s been absolutely pathetic. only "bright" spot, is that we've had cold (always after storms....but it at least feels somewhat like winter. Just trying to not be a total debby right now. Hoping we get the looks being advertised later this month. It can quickly erase the ugly start to snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 10 hours ago, anotherman said: even the good looks are not producing snow and that is troubling. Analogs that used to mean east coast snow now do not guarantee what they used to. This has been 1000% my feelings of the last couple years. When things used to look good, there was more confidence that the pattern would often show up, and it seems of late, that when the same indicators show, we struggle to get anything close to what we think should happen. This has absolutely been my biggest frustration of late. I used to be able to tell friends/clients/family when good periods were forthecoming and so much that some would book trips weeks out based on what I suggested. I wouldnt be able to do that with much/any confidence right now. Something has changed. Is it the warming climate that isnt factored into analogs as we use mid/long range guidance....dunno, but thats what I'm guessing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 This has been 1000% my feelings of the last couple years. When things used to look good, there was more confidence that the pattern would often show up, and it seems of late, that when the same indicators show, we struggle to get anything close to what we think should happen. This has absolutely been my biggest frustration of late. I used to be able to tell friends/clients/family when good periods were forthecoming and so much that some would book trips weeks out based on what I suggested. I wouldnt be able to do that with much/any confidence right now. Something has changed. Is it the warming climate that isnt factored into analogs as we use mid/long range guidance....dunno, but thats what I'm guessing. A La Niña that never wants to die does not help.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 36 minutes ago, Superstorm said: A La Niña that never wants to die does not help. . Yeah you can add that to the mix. Early ideas that it would fade and we'd be Enso Neut by mid winter are not working out. Last look we are at -.9 and it is waning, so that should help for the back 1/2 of winter. I'll also add that as we barely broke low end mod Nina, that it really wasnt an overwhelmingly strong signal that could be overcome by other forcing mechanisms. Add in a warming base state, and maybe it has more legs than I gave it credit for. I will add that while some merely look at Enso, and place their bets accordingly, history also shows us that while the odds may be tilted in favor, that their are quite a few instances that have proven that methodology to be incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Amazing to me that the 3 ski resorts in this general area are still operating considering that some of the big boys in much snowier areas of the northeast and mid-Atlantic have had to shut down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Amazing to me that the 3 ski resorts in this general area are still operating considering that some of the big boys in much snowier areas of the northeast and mid-Atlantic have had to shut down. I wonder if expected conditions has anything to do with that...re: if I were a skier and I went to Whitetail I would expect "local conditions" whereas if I went to Killington in Vermont, I would expect much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I wonder if expected conditions has anything to do with that...re: if I were a skier and I went to Whitetail I would expect "local conditions" whereas if I went to Killington in Vermont, I would expect much more. Very good point - and likely a lot of truth as well. Roundtop still has good coverage on some of their open trails - they benefit that almost the entire ski area faces north - not sure about Whitetail, but Liberty has some terrain more exposed to direct sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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