Central PA Winter 2022/2023

[pasnownut]

17 hours ago, Voyager said:

Post em to Facebook, copy the pic, then delete the Facebook post. That's how I post my pics here. Facebook automatically reduces the file size, which is then under the limit for attachments here.

huh.  Thanks for the pro tip Steve.  I dont to fbook much anymore but will check it out.  Call home, They'll attest to the snow.  Mt Carmel was also surprisingly white on the hilltops.  Not sure if much will be left w/ the next cutter washin a bunch away, but it was a pretty drive yesterday.  

[Itstrainingtime]

I said something to my wife about the front or back end scenario and she said right now...neither. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Low of 30 this morning in Maytown. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS has better post front snow potential on Friday.

I'm just glad we should get this mess over with, so I can hopefully get my (not delayed due to weather) daughter at airport Saturday. 

Dont shoot me, but anafrontal ice/snow is not needed so close to the holidays.  I also cant believe I just typed that.  Guess I'm getting soft(er)

I think Bubbler said it the other day, and I guess I agree.    

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This was showing every once in awhile back in fantasy land on some GFS runs & some ensembles as well.

 

I've been keeping an eye on it for the last couple runs as its been close, but felt reluctant to post on grounds of further incarceration or being banned from the board  (joking aside, I really dont give a rats ass-but the tone has been sour so I let it ride),   Even if we get it, WAR is at the ready to cook off the snowpack as temps look slated to moderate, but hey we'll take a snow day however we can right?

Hoping that we can flip back to a more fav regime as we turn the calendar and start the New Year and as I'll be off in between, I wont feel the need to spend 1 out of every 6 hrs sitting by a computer....lol

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

This is exactly the kind of storm that pops up inside 5 days on all models and delivers 

Thats a fair point.  We've been so focused on the incoming mess that many forget the pattern post frontal can deliver (even if the window is only a few days)

[anotherman]

I don’t care about the front end snow. I want the back end snow with temperatures plummeting and winds howling. That will give us a white Christmas.

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Low of 30 this morning in Maytown. 

Rare time lately where I was almost double digit below you. 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I don’t care about the front end snow. I want the back end snow with temperatures plummeting and winds howling. That will give us a white Christmas.

100% agree - snow that will be washed away in minutes? Well okay, given that I haven't seen so much as a flake, for that reason only, I'd take it. Otherwise, fully onboard with snow/wind/cold = staying power. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Rare time lately where I was almost double digit below you. 

Skies were partly to mostly cloudy here the entire night I guess. (It was cloudy at 11 when I went to bed and cloudy at 5am when I woke up) 

[Itstrainingtime]

FWIW, CTP does not mention snow in my forecast at all. Rain ending by 1pm Friday, then windy and cold. 

[Voyager]

34 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

huh.  Thanks for the pro tip Steve.  I dont to fbook much anymore but will check it out.  Call home, They'll attest to the snow.  Mt Carmel was also surprisingly white on the hilltops.  Not sure if much will be left w/ the next cutter washin a bunch away, but it was a pretty drive yesterday.  

It's cumbersome, but it works.

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I don’t care about the front end snow. I want the back end snow with temperatures plummeting and winds howling. That will give us a white Christmas.

yeah snow is fine, but if we get the flash freeze that is being advertised that'd suck a bit.  

[Itstrainingtime]

Yesterday I mentioned arctic fronts in the 1970s and 1980s that featured dramatic temp drops - below is a chart I got out of the MA thread this morning...this is for DCA, obviously the same front came through our area as well. Note that out of the top 10 temp drops of all time, 3 of the 10 were in a 4 year period from 1978-1981. Take a looksie at how far the temp plummeted. 

This old man's memory is still pretty good:  

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yesterday I mentioned arctic fronts in the 1970s and 1980s that featured dramatic temp drops - below is a chart I got out of the MA thread this morning...this is for DCA, obviously the same front came through our area as well. Note that out of the top 10 temp drops of all time, 3 of the 10 were in a 4 year period from 1978-1981. Take a looksie at how far the temp plummeted. 

This old man's memory is still pretty good:  

Good call.  You have one of the best recall capabilities I have ever seen...whether from memory or records you kept.   

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Good call.  You have one of the best recall capabilities I have ever seen...whether from memory or records you kept.   

I remember weather events from the 1970s and 80s much more vividly than I do from last year. Don't know why, but it's true. 

I remember the sound of the rain on our roof from Agnes in 1972...it's a sound that it etched in my memory forever. I can still here it...

[Festus]

Hey Itstrainingtime, you keep pretty good records for these parts, how many pre New Year shutouts have we had?  Can't be many.

[paweather]

Blizzard conditions out in the Midwest this week. 

[Bubbler86]

The question from @Festus gave me an idea to go back to the last 2 winter threads for CPA and compare page totals...on page 64 this year and started Nov 30th.  Not at all scientific but a good compare as lots of snow would have pushed the page totals up.  The threads prior to 2 years ago were done in a different format or started later. 

2021-2022 it was Dec 19th when on pages 64 so very close.  That thread also started Nov 30th

2020-2021 it was Dec 25th on Page 64 so less activity.  Started Dec 1st. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

20 minutes ago, Festus said:

Hey Itstrainingtime, you keep pretty good records for these parts, how many pre New Year shutouts have we had?  Can't be many.

We've actually had several winters since 1965 where we've made it to January before I received my first measurable snowfall - having said that, I don't have records for this, but I cannot remember not seeing so much as a flurry prior to the New Year. At this point we have a puncher's chance of that happening. 

Also, my definition of measurable is not the same as "official" records...to me, that has meant at least .1" of snow on the ground. 

[sauss06]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Good call.  You have one of the best recall capabilities I have ever seen...whether from memory or records you kept.   

Sometimes i think he has some weather micro-chip implanted somewhere. 

[Bubbler86]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We've actually had several winters since 1965 where we've made it to January before I received my first measurable snowfall - having said that, I don't have records for this, but I cannot remember not seeing so much as a flurry prior to the New Year. At this point we have a puncher's chance of that happening. 

Also, my definition of measurable is not the same as "official" records...to me, that has meant at least .1" of snow on the ground. 

This info appears to be what you are looking for.  The records is late January in 2006-2007.  It was only back to Jan 2015 when we did not have .1 at MDT until Jan.  This output is the earliest and latest when .1" of snow was received at MDT by season.   Looks like 10 total Jan's as first snow going back to 1900.

 

 

[canderson]

For the first time in a week CTP has dropped the word snow entry from my grid for Thursday and Friday.  Thursday am has rain and freezing rain, then just solid rain. 
 

The biggest impact in this bullshit storm will be the wind, widespread power outages and creek/urban flooding. 

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This info appears to be what you are looking for.  The records is late January in 2006-2007.  It was only back to Jan 2015 when we did not have .1 at MDT until Jan.  This output is the earliest and latest when .1" of snow was received at MDT by season.   Looks like 10 total Jan's as first snow going back to 1900.

 

 

Alarmingly, a solid half of them are this century. It’s about a 25% chance these days, it appears.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Festus said:

Hey Itstrainingtime, you keep pretty good records for these parts, how many pre New Year shutouts have we had?  Can't be many.

 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Good call.  You have one of the best recall capabilities I have ever seen...whether from memory or records you kept.   

 

32 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Sometimes i think he has some weather micro-chip implanted somewhere. 

Sort of on the subject of memory, I have some time this morning so I'd like to share some insight and actual data on snow maps. At the end of the day, let me just say now that:

• I know that almost the entire populous in this thread loves to see snow maps. I respect each one of you, and I also respect your wish to view them
• Related to the above, I have relented on my own petty complaining when these maps are posted. If they bother me, it's my choice to simply move on, which I have done 

A couple of things I'll share as to why and how I got to where I'm at today with snow maps:

• If I take any one of the bigger weather models - I'll start with the European model. So far this season, if you take that model's highest snow output per any event for my location and add them up, I should have already received 47" of snow. In fact, one run on the Euro this season has already shown 27" for one event here using a 10:1 ratio. That 47" of Euro snow goodness has translated to a whopping 0" here, including not even a flake. Other computer models have spit out similar totals. But let's not stop there - I actually went back and gathered data for the entire 2021-22 winter season. Taking the Euro run that generated the highest snowfall for my location at a 10:1 ratio, I should have received 202" of snow last winter. My final tally for the season was a wee bit less, checking in at 16.6". That's about 7% of what the Euro suggested that I would receive at some point during each event's model cycle. That's a whole lot of digital snowfall that never became reality. I knew there was obviously a large discrepancy...even I didn't know that it was THAT great. And that leads to my second point...
• I'm part of a team at work that has to make decisions to either postpone work or carry on as scheduled when winter weather is looming. Keep in mind, those same maps that we all love to look at in here (except me) are also widely available to Fanny Sue and Billy Bob, who know absolutely nothing about the weather. But yet, when they get their hands and eyes on those pretty maps, they start coming to me with questions, demands, etc. about why I'm not panicking and preparing to shut down operations. Mind you, some of these questions/requests come at 11pm, 2am, etc. And each winter, far too many times to count each winter, I have to explain why what they're looking at won't happen. And after it doesn't happen, I get to do it all over again during the next threat. I don't mind, in fact I love having to make decisions for events that will actually happen, but it gets really tiresome to do so 15 times each winter because the best computer model in the world starts spitting out 27" for Lanco 7 days out and the reality is...55 and rain, which is going to happen Thursday night/Friday. Further, because the public doesn't understand the weather nor do they even care about the weather until they see a map with purples and greys and pinks splattered all over Lancaster county, trying to explain that each year we only see a total of about 7% of a model's output is totally lost on them. 

@Blizzard of 93- you...post a LOT of great info in here! Pattern changes, changes in the NAO, PNA, etc. - that is all very useful, even if not always accurate, to share with us. That info can help us understand potential pattern changes that might offer hope (or further despair) for the weather that we all really want. I value all of that stuff. Please here/understand this in the midst of my snow map rant. You do add a lot to this thread. Thank you. Having said that, I'll continue to despise snow maps with every fabric inside of me - and at the very least, I hope most of you will now understand the why behind the way that I feel. 

[Itstrainingtime]

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This info appears to be what you are looking for.  The records is late January in 2006-2007.  It was only back to Jan 2015 when we did not have .1 at MDT until Jan.  This output is the earliest and latest when .1" of snow was received at MDT by season.   Looks like 10 total Jan's as first snow going back to 1900.

 

 

I wanted to give @Festusan actual number, but couldn't. Thank you very much for this! (I would have guessed "7" since 1965) 

[MillvilleWx]

12 hours ago, canderson said:

Poor guy - it an awful place. Ask @MillvilleWx haha 

Can confirm 

There is a masterful burger joint there though, so it's like 1.5 stars 

[Bubbler86]

27 minutes ago, TimB said:

Alarmingly, a solid half of them are this century. It’s about a 25% chance these days, it appears.

Yep, very rare in "olden times".  I did expand the dates back 1850 and it appears this record was first kept as of 1889-1890 season and unbelievable the first record is actual the real record when expanding the selection those 10 years.  Feb in 1890.  @Itstrainingtime@Festus.  This would also bump the total count up to 11 if my eyes counted right.  This board must have been a real delight to visit the winter of 1889-1890!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

 

Sort of on the subject of memory, I have some time this morning so I'd like to share some insight and actual data on snow maps. At the end of the day, let me just say now that:

• I know that almost the entire populous in this thread loves to see snow maps. I respect each one of you, and I also respect your wish to view them
• Related to the above, I have relented on my own petty complaining when these maps are posted. If they bother me, it's my choice to simply move on, which I have done 

A couple of things I'll share as to why and how I got to where I'm at today with snow maps:

• If I take any one of the bigger weather models - I'll start with the European model. So far this season, if you take that model's highest snow output per any event for my location and add them up, I should have already received 47" of snow. In fact, one run on the Euro this season has already shown 27" for one event here using a 10:1 ratio. That 47" of Euro snow goodness has translated to a whopping 0" here, including not even a flake. Other computer models have spit out similar totals. But let's not stop there - I actually went back and gathered data for the entire 2021-22 winter season. Taking the Euro run that generated the highest snowfall for my location at a 10:1 ratio, I should have received 202" of snow last winter. My final tally for the season was a wee bit less, checking in at 16.6". That's about 7% of what the Euro suggested that I would receive at some point during each event's model cycle. That's a whole lot of digital snowfall that never became reality. I knew there was obviously a large discrepancy...even I didn't know that it was THAT great. And that leads to my second point...
• I'm part of a team at work that has to make decisions to either postpone work or carry on as scheduled when winter weather is looming. Keep in mind, those same maps that we all love to look at in here (except me) are also widely available to Fanny Sue and Billy Bob, who know absolutely nothing about the weather. But yet, when they get their hands and eyes on those pretty maps, they start coming to me with questions, demands, etc. about why I'm not panicking and preparing to shut down operations. Mind you, some of these questions/requests come at 11pm, 2am, etc. And each winter, far too many times to count each winter, I have to explain why what they're looking at won't happen. And after it doesn't happen, I get to do it all over again during the next threat. I don't mind, in fact I love having to make decisions for events that will actually happen, but it gets really tiresome to do so 15 times each winter because the best computer model in the world starts spitting out 27" for Lanco 7 days out and the reality is...55 and rain, which is going to happen Thursday night/Friday. Further, because the public doesn't understand the weather nor do they even care about the weather until they see a map with purples and greys and pinks splattered all over Lancaster county, trying to explain that each year we only see a total of about 7% of a model's output is totally lost on them. 

@Blizzard of 93- you...post a LOT of great info in here! Pattern changes, changes in the NAO, PNA, etc. - that is all very useful, even if not always accurate, to share with us. That info can help us understand potential pattern changes that might offer hope (or further despair) for the weather that we all really want. I value all of that stuff. Please here/understand this in the midst of my snow map rant. You do add a lot to this thread. Thank you. Having said that, I'll continue to despise snow maps with every fabric inside of me - and at the very least, I hope most of you will now understand the why behind the way that I feel. 

Great post and well thought out points.  

 

Not to detract from it but Fanny Sue?  LOL.  That got me laughing...is she single? 

[GrandmasterB]

GFS isn’t going to do it this run, but the CMC made a nice southeast shift and beefed up snow totals for the front end stuff Thursday. I know the Euro is hinting at this too. 

[anotherman]

GFS isn’t going to do it this run, but the CMC made a nice southeast shift and beefed up snow totals for the front end stuff Thursday. I know the Euro is hinting at this too. 

What about on the backend?