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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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  On 12/14/2022 at 2:34 PM, GrandmasterB said:

NAM blasts rain all the way to NY border. Tough to discount it when we’ve seen warmth win out in these situations.

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I just looked at it vs the Euro, and they are similar...and not crowd pleasers.

So the rug is still under foot and wating for the big tug.....whos gonna pull it?  :P

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  On 12/14/2022 at 2:46 PM, Cashtown_Coop said:

Happened with a storm last year where nam was only model to show that and it verified 

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The trend with all the 12Z's out so far, including the entire HRW suite I can see, is less sleet and more frz rain for us...and a short/small accum snow burst before switch to rain for the top of the LSV and lower MSV.  Even the 3K has it.  The 12K Nam is the only one without it so far.    Most have all changing over to rain eventually...up to NY. 

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Rgem also pushes rain into NY with little to no snow for the LSV.  Far north part gets an inch or so on Kuch.  Serious sleet bomb for West Central PA.  And crazy FRZ map though this often does not verify in reality.   The area of little Frz between the Western Mountain range and Franklin county gets a lot of sleet. 

 

image.png.37ada0c2c68498487235eea3d901d1ad.png

 

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  On 12/14/2022 at 2:32 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

That is our reality in changeover storms...almost without fail, sleet and ZR comes earlier, and moves much farther north, than predicted. 

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The truth of all truths.  The fat lady has been singing for a while for much of the southern LSV.  I expect less than an inch of slop down here in Amish-land.  

If I could plop myself anywhere for this storm it would be that high ridge near the border of Lycoming and Tioga Counties, near Libery/Blossburg.  Also, I swear Laporte is in a great spot for damn near every storm ha.

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  On 12/14/2022 at 3:59 PM, Bubbler86 said:

The thing that bothers me with this situation is its precip indications.  Take this one for example.  Lower resolution may be hurting its forecasting skill on this event. 

 

image.png.cd7dde329397b42ac27b32536a6cbe7e.png

 

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Most likely yes...

...or, could it be areas of high intensity precip/dynamic cooling? 

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  On 12/14/2022 at 3:59 PM, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The truth of all truths.  The fat lady has been singing for a while for much of the southern LSV.  I expect less than an inch of slop down here in Amish-land.  

If I could plop myself anywhere for this storm it would be that high ridge near the border of Lycoming and Tioga Counties, near Libery/Blossburg.  Also, I swear Laporte is in a great spot for damn near every storm ha.

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I'm not sold that we see ANY snow whatsoever. Certainly would not surprise me if I have to wait at least another week before seeing my first flakes of the season. 

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  On 12/14/2022 at 3:00 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Rgem also pushes rain into NY with little to no snow for the LSV.  Far north part gets an inch or so on Kuch.  Serious sleet bomb for West Central PA.  And crazy FRZ map though this often does not verify in reality.   The area of little Frz between the Western Mountain range and Franklin county gets a lot of sleet. 

 

image.png.37ada0c2c68498487235eea3d901d1ad.png

 

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As far as I can tell, the RGEM's primary purpose is to throw out insanely juiced up fantastical FRZ maps that will never come close to verifying, and I'm here for all of it :lol:

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  On 12/14/2022 at 4:04 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Does it shred next week's potential, or is there no storm at all?

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I was typing that and went to reply to yours and did not finish the thought but that was in reference to the 6Z....but yes on the 6Z there is nothing the rest of the year.   Everything supressed except one small coastal 12/29. 

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  On 12/14/2022 at 4:03 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not sold that we see ANY snow whatsoever. Certainly would not surprise me if I have to wait at least another week before seeing my first flakes of the season. 

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Yep, I'm betting on no white at all falling for us.  As always, would love to be wrong.

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  On 12/14/2022 at 3:59 PM, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The truth of all truths.  The fat lady has been singing for a while for much of the southern LSV.  I expect less than an inch of slop down here in Amish-land.  

If I could plop myself anywhere for this storm it would be that high ridge near the border of Lycoming and Tioga Counties, near Libery/Blossburg.  Also, I swear Laporte is in a great spot for damn near every storm ha.

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Yeah, no matter what map shows what, we know the drill down here.  Hoping for surprise reports N and W of us (more N IMO). Funny as I was thinking Liberty exit of rt 15 to Worlds End when I suggested Lyco to Sullivan.  Liberty is 1 mile over the Tioga border, and a plateau that we always see wintery weather when there is some to be had en route to the cabin.   

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