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Central PA Winter 2022/2023

Blizzard of 93
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Itstrainingtime
Itstrainingtime

A Day In Our Thread - January 10th, 2025 2:38am: MAG writes an essay all about our slim to no chances of snow over the next 10-14 days. He also includes a pic of snow falling on snow with roads c

Voyager
Voyager

Check out my sunrise this morning...

Itstrainingtime
Itstrainingtime

Allow me to digress for a moment - really having a mixed emotions kind of day. Today my work team is celebrating the holidays with a catered luncheon, a day that in the past I've always looked forward

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2022 at 11:55 AM, pawatch said:

Blizz

Just appears that the northern jet stream on the GFS doesn’t appear to have much dip for us.

Thanks for the maps  :)

At least we have something to watch!

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Yeah, the GFS doesnt seem to by latching onto other camps and 6z has gone further west for next weekend, and really doesnt want to play.  CMC although west, has would would appear to be front end kinda deal (lacking sufficient cold) and verbatim, not sure I'm buying what that canook model is selling, but hey its snow...even if digital.  Will be interesting to see how the next couple of days play out model wise.  FWIW, the GFS ENS are rather close to the Op, so this may be a battle model wise.

 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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  On 12/5/2022 at 4:09 AM, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z GFS is not yet on board and continues to track the Friday system further north than the other models, bringing rain to CTP this run.

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  On 12/5/2022 at 10:51 AM, pawatch said:

Rain instead of snow...Gee what a surprise. :lol:

16 degrees here this morning. A chilly start.

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GFS OP is on an island. This is going to be an interesting test for winter. Does the GFS score a coup, or does it run too hot?

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2022 at 2:49 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

 

GFS OP is on an island. This is going to be an interesting test for winter. Does the GFS score a coup, or does it run too hot?

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Its not too far from the CMC, but yeah w/ the Euro notably different, its going to be fun to see how this works out.  Having ENS support makes me a tad nervous tho.  6Z for Fri/Sat looked close at 500mb.  Was hoping that wouldnt be the case.  With PNA headed twds neutral, I'd think a less ridgy look here in the east would start to show up as NAO/AO are solidly negative and you'd think would promote fatter solutions here in the east.  Dunno.

 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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  On 12/5/2022 at 3:06 PM, pasnownut said:

Its not too far from the CMC, but yeah w/ the Euro notably different, its going to be fun to see how this works out.  Having ENS support makes me a tad nervous tho.  6Z for Fri/Sat looked close at 500mb.  Was hoping that wouldnt be the case.  With PNA headed twds neutral, I'd think a less ridgy look here in the east would start to show up as NAO/AO are solidly negative and you'd think would promote fatter solutions here in the east.  Dunno.

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2nd interesting thing will be when we start to get in the range of the meso models in a few days. Maybe the GFS resolution is "too big" still?

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2022 at 3:12 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

2nd interesting thing will be when we start to get in the range of the meso models in a few days. Maybe the GFS resolution is "too big" still?

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Yeah I know they did some incremental upgrades, but didnt really look into what that entailed.  Yeah, hoping the NAM can give us some better looks in the next couple days.  One thing I will stand on, is that based on tellies, it argues AGAINST what the GFS shows regarding all of the cutter looks here in the east, so lets hope it comes around.  

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted

Peeked at MR progs this AM and see a bit of can kicking STILL as it pertains to a really good pattern.  It started last week when the second week of Dec looked great pattern wise...now tailing off into later Dec. Speaking specifically to the chances of well BN cold and systems that we could expect to produce dry powder.

 

This Friday's instance is a sloppy situation even if the 850 goes under us. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted

GFS just not wanting to come around (or is it scoring a coup).  Shows a late transfer (after much has fallen), which is likely a byproduct of AO/NAO helping to suppress a bit (but not enough verbatim). 

Blizz, hoping your Euro is back on the rails and takes us where we wanna go.  

 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2022 at 4:00 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Peeked at MR progs this AM and see a bit of can kicking STILL as it pertains to a really good pattern.  It started last week when the second week of Dec looked great pattern wise...now tailing off into later Dec. Speaking specifically to the chances of well BN cold and systems that we could expect to produce dry power.

 

This Friday's instance is a sloppy situation even if the 850 goes under us. 

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Elliott shared the following over the weekend:

"For anyone thinking that Greenland blocking (a -NAO) guarantees snow and cold for the mid-Atlantic States, you need only look back to last #December. The NAO was - for the last two weeks of the month, but temps were still 8°F above normal for the month at @millersvilleu.."

And he went on to say this:

"By the end of next week and beyond, uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly. A large-scale pattern change featuring the development of pronounced, high-latitude blocking will get underway this weekend and continue to mature next week. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is projected to turn strongly negative as a large, Jet Stream ridge develops over Greenland. How the strength, location, and orientation of this "Greenland Block" evolves will play a crucial role in determining how our weather plays out during the middle of the month. These blocking patterns traditionally support a greater likelihood of accumulating snow in the I-81 and I-95 corridors, but they don't guarantee it. In addition, numerical computer models are notoriously bad at handling Greenland blocking and exhibit drastic, run-to-run differences. If you're a snow- or winter-weather lover, then you want the blocking high pressure system to ultimately shift to the south/west of Greenland and become oriented north-to-south. At this distance, only a fool would pretend to know IF and WHEN this might happen. There's plenty of "hype" on social media with respect to winter weather "potential" in the mid-Atlantic during the middle of the month, but just remember that you can't shovel potential!"

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2022 at 4:28 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Elliott shared the following over the weekend:

"For anyone thinking that Greenland blocking (a -NAO) guarantees snow and cold for the mid-Atlantic States, you need only look back to last #December. The NAO was - for the last two weeks of the month, but temps were still 8°F above normal for the month at @millersvilleu.."

And he went on to say this:

"By the end of next week and beyond, uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly. A large-scale pattern change featuring the development of pronounced, high-latitude blocking will get underway this weekend and continue to mature next week. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is projected to turn strongly negative as a large, Jet Stream ridge develops over Greenland. How the strength, location, and orientation of this "Greenland Block" evolves will play a crucial role in determining how our weather plays out during the middle of the month. These blocking patterns traditionally support a greater likelihood of accumulating snow in the I-81 and I-95 corridors, but they don't guarantee it. In addition, numerical computer models are notoriously bad at handling Greenland blocking and exhibit drastic, run-to-run differences. If you're a snow- or winter-weather lover, then you want the blocking high pressure system to ultimately shift to the south/west of Greenland and become oriented north-to-south. At this distance, only a fool would pretend to know IF and WHEN this might happen. There's plenty of "hype" on social media with respect to winter weather "potential" in the mid-Atlantic during the middle of the month, but just remember that you can't shovel potential!"

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Throwing out the fool word!   Early bird nooners...45 and filtered sunshine. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2022 at 4:49 PM, mahantango#1 said:

Only 35 here.

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  On 12/5/2022 at 4:58 PM, Bubbler86 said:

Looking at Wunderground, most of the LSV is in the low 40's.  Mid 40's far south part and Upper 30's far North...so all makes sense I guess.   MDT is 41 and THV is 46. 

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45 here just past noon. 

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