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December Discobs 2022


George BM
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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm not sure exactly what the NAM Nest is doing on Friday.  Every other model has us in the 50s, but the NAM is throwing out this ridiculous inversion along 95.

959390412_nam3kfriday.png.f89424886d1dd6824df5e3ca72e04848.png1143611085_2022122806_NAMNST_060_38.86-77.06_severe_ml.thumb.png.defda89691c438c3999be4f204c637ab.png

Maybe it seeing thick fog over water bodies northern Chesapeake Bay Susquehanna Havre De Grace northwestern Delaware Bay and up the Delaware River SE pa as very warm air rushes north just above the surface over relative cold.  

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Really warmed up today.  Just got an outdoor hoops sesh in.  Tracking the LR is interesting, but this upcoming pattern is gonna require quite a flip to get back to snowy prospects.  I really didn't think entering this season it would be such a struggle to get snow, but I'm starting to think my snowfall forecast is too high (was close to 20").  We shall see...still early and it doesn't take much to reach the average here, so there is that.

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1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Maybe it seeing thick fog over water bodies northern Chesapeake Bay Susquehanna Havre De Grace northwestern Delaware Bay and up the Delaware River SE pa as very warm air rushes north just above the surface over relative cold.  

That certainly could be an explanation at first glance, but that wouldn't explain the overnight lows (image below).  It is like the land surface scheme has a foot of snow over us instead of, well, nothing.  And the HRRR is having none of it, with highs in the mid-upper 50s on Friday.

18z.png.89a1fc552c53d95536e02fc519643a81.png

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2 hours ago, 87storms said:

Really warmed up today.  Just got an outdoor hoops sesh in.  Tracking the LR is interesting, but this upcoming pattern is gonna require quite a flip to get back to snowy prospects.  I really didn't think entering this season it would be such a struggle to get snow, but I'm starting to think my snowfall forecast is too high (was close to 20").  We shall see...still early and it doesn't take much to reach the average here, so there is that.

At this point I'd be ecstatic with one warning snow and one minor advisory event. Hell, I'll take a 3-4 incher and call it a winter.

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2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

At this point I'd be ecstatic with one warning snow and one minor advisory event. Hell, I'll take a 3-4 incher and call it a winter.

Lol, same.  Saw your winter prediction...that's looking like a solid, professional forecast so far.  We have a tendency to get snow in waves, so maybe the next pattern change will produce while we're in peak climo.

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40 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Lol, same.  Saw your winter prediction...that's looking like a solid, professional forecast so far.  We have a tendency to get snow in waves, so maybe the next pattern change will produce while we're in peak climo.

Thanks. I’m hoping we get a backloaded winter this time. My monthly temp forecasts are tracking well so far, but my -1 January call may already be in trouble even before it starts. We’re going to have a lot of ground to make up after the second week. 

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This has happened in the past but a legit question. This morning when I got off work it was foggy/hazy looking. As I drove home I noticed....SNOW!! Yes, it was snowing from an almost clear sky. Now I have a pretty good idea what it was living here for over 50 years. Papermill snow. It is/was only 2nd time I've seen it at my current location, but when I lived closer to town (and mill) when growing up it would happen 3 or 4 times a year when it got cold enough. I reported nothing in my CoCoRaHS report and emailed them asking what I should do. But, what would YOU do? It IS falling from the sky, it does cover the ground and fill the gauge.... BTW, when I looked at the 'night satellite' images between 6 and 8 this morning there was a nice 'streamer' going thru the county and right over the house. 

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29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Road is colder than the air. Condensation just like on a coke can in summer. I think chemicals on the roads aid in this process but not sure of the process though.

Basically. Warmer air moving in over paved surfaces that a) have been very cold and b) were treated is causing the condensation.

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22 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm not sure exactly what the NAM Nest is doing on Friday.  Every other model has us in the 50s, but the NAM is throwing out this ridiculous inversion along 95.

959390412_nam3kfriday.png.f89424886d1dd6824df5e3ca72e04848.png1143611085_2022122806_NAMNST_060_38.86-77.06_severe_ml.thumb.png.defda89691c438c3999be4f204c637ab.png

This is still present on the NAMs. Quite the contrast from temps depicted on the GFS.

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Why are the roads so wet? Did I miss something last night?

 

57 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Road is colder than the air. Condensation just like on a coke can in summer. I think chemicals on the roads aid in this process but not sure of the process though.

 

49 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I was going to say that they were sweating, but figured people already think I’m dumb enough.

Yep, the chemicals reacting to the warmer air on the colder road, basically sweating....

 

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7 hours ago, nj2va said:

Beautiful day for a hike at Swallow Falls. Trails were slippery due to the snow/ice but well worth it to see the falls partially frozen due to the recent extreme cold.
128083a50c6c333f8d72446de7b16926.jpg
f73218ebc3b8416fa255615087ef317c.jpg
5809e093727d5f6f816bc6ab0b4d7a0d.jpg

Wow. That's awesome. We were there back in November and it certainly didn't look like that lol.

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17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Wow. That's awesome. We were there back in November and it certainly didn't look like that lol.

You need to plan another weekend out here, when the pac puke is gone of course.  You just missed the snow during your last visit - maybe you have bad luck so I’ll try to avoid your weekend here lol

Hopefully Jan-Mar features some good events where we all can score. 

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