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December Banter 2022


George BM
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13 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Another SHORT pump-and-dump scam :lol:

The best part was at the beginning of the month, when weenies (for some reason) got hyped up for a Dec. 2010 redux... as if somehow this time we weren't going to get screwed during Christmas week again. :lol:

FYP some...oh, and snow for Christmas??  Bah, Humbug!!

YARN | Humbug! | Scrooge (1951) | Video gifs by quotes | 0843190c | 紗

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You want to see REAL SNOW? Go to Jay Peak VT.

You coming?

https://jaypeakresort.com/skiing-riding/snow-report-maps/weather-tim-kelley )

UPDATED DECEMBER 16TH, 2022

White Knuckle

I’m not just talking about the drive to the mountain in this storm. I’m talking about how deep the snow may be if you hike through some untouched snow around the resort this weekend - up to your knuckles - while standing straight up. Once you lean over into a prone snow riding position, it’s more like white chin, white beard, white mustache, white hair, white teeth… (kids under 10 do not count or we will have to dig them out later) ha ha ha, just seeing if you're paying attention. 

Seriously though, for all those days we missed seeing new snow since Thanksgiving, we’re making up for it in one storm. Or at least we hope to, if what I’m seeing all pans out.

It started snowing just after daybreak Friday, and it’s not completely done till about Tuesday, or at least it may let up a little for a short time. If anything I probably have to increase our snowfall forecast number from the 30 inches we predicted a few days ago, if all goes well. 

The storm that generated the Great Plains blizzard has kind of stalled out over the Great Lakes, but a new storm formed off New Jersey and is moving over to Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine Friday night into Saturday. There’s an inverted trough connecting the two systems. So that means ocean-saturated air from the east is gradually shifting around, coming in from the north then west later Saturday. That causes wind blowing into itself, along with upslope flow, making air rise, which causes air to cool and condense, which causes snowflakes.

That’s part one of this storm.

It looks like we could be close to 2 feet before the end of our Saturday, fingers crossed.

You may not notice the transition as the set up then changes from what we call a synoptic scale system, to more of a Jay Cloud situation. Around noon or so Saturday, the snow is all the sudden going to be falling in a different direction and become much less dense. Powder on top of cream cheese. A perfect base building setup for the rest of winter. And though natural snow has been sparse lately, I think we MAY be able to get into some low-angle glades before we’re done here Monday or Tuesday.

Snowfall intensity MAY decrease a bit Saturday night and Sunday, or at least become more intermittent, but we could get about another 12 inches or so before the last chair Sunday.

After that, snowfall might just ramp back up Sunday night and Monday as we have additional moisture laden, unstable, low barometer, cool pool aloft (the center of the old blizzard storm) passing over into Monday.

Checking my math now, I think I just called for 36 or so - inches of snow by Monday. Wind and chill looks tolerable until then. We are still snow'n - and start blow'n - most of Monday.

Pushing 40" by Tuesday?? Possibly! I’ve been right before, you know.

We may get a few minutes of sunshine Tuesday, but then there’s another upper level low with much colder air coming at us along with snow squalls Tuesday night into Wednesday. That looks like it could be another 6 to 10" when the Jay Cloud kicks in.

Then we MAY get Thursday off for a snow-break before the real storm arrives next Friday or so.

The Friday storm looks like the real deal - historic possibly. Keyword: possibly.

With an arctic blast on the backside, just to keep us strong.

Several more FEET of snow POSSIBLE next Friday-Saturday.

That one comes with true Arctic storm force wind. We have that (brutal wind) to not look forward to, but at least we’ll have a few more days on the mountain to get acclimated first.

It’s rare that we go a complete Christmas & New Year’s vacation without some kind of meltdown and refreeze. Knock on wood - this MAY be the year.

You have ice balls on your eyebrows - take care of that.

Talk again Tuesday.

 

-Tim

 

****************************************************

 

I absolutely WORSHIP Jay Peak, Vermont. No better place on North America, for snow. They make SNE look like Tampa, Florida during Spring Break.

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Rant on:  I've been in the shadows here since the early days.  I think it was Eastern Weather back then.  I know this is a hobby for most people here, but why all the vitriol on every guidance, maps, etc on everything that comes out?  There are a couple people that I trust, mostly the red taggers, and I appreciate the discussion to a point from the non-Mets.  I joined the forum to learn from others, and try to get an understanding of our weather.  BUT, I don't understand the bravado of being "correct" on a storm that is 7 days out?  What gives?  I will be extremely happy if we see a white Christmas in DC proper.  It hasn't happened in quite some time.  Take it easy - it's only weather.Take care and happy holidays to you all!  I will comment again in 3 years if that's cool.  

 

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Can’t wait to watch the Bills game tomorrow night in these conditions:
Snow before 3am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 3am and 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. West wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
I need waddle to be below average
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44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Dolphins have lost a couple in a row. Tua has looked mediocre. Not sure how they have much success in Buffalo today. Maybe Hill will go crazy and the DBs will slip and fall a lot in the snow.

When healthy, they can be scary on offense. The weather today will likely neutralize some of that threat…..for both teams. I wouldn’t expect a crazy high scoring game.  

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17 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Once you learn to accept that living in this area = you need to travel to get your snow fix, winter storm chasing anxiety significantly decreases. It’s a 3hr drive to deep creek or Davis or a 1 hr flight to New Hampshire, etc. 

This is what I have been doing for awhile now. Oddly the best local snow chases recently have been to my east lol.

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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I disagree. 
 

And my ignore list is long. It’s the best feature of the board. I’m sure that others that won’t see this post would agree with me.

I haven’t ignored anyone yet, the meltdowns are a large part of this community and I wouldn’t want to miss Ji going from the top of the world to the deepest depths all in one gfs run

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Not to interrupt the model whining but…

I’m at the local Walmart in Oakland. There’s about 20-25 local law enforcement here, each paired with a local child - I asked one of them what the program is and they’re each given a gift card to buy gifts on their lists or for family members. Then they go to the local fairgrounds for a day with Santa and games - and are sent home with a holiday dinner for their families. Super cool stuff. 
 

It’s a reminder of what this season is about and to give back to those in need.  And yes, I teared up seeing this at the store. 
 

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