December Banter 2022

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Don’t memorize it, learn it

That is a great long term solution, however, it sorta fails as a short term one. Besides I know how to have a conversation in Spanish but we have to include specific key words and verbs, we are supposed to make a script and memorize it. 

[vastateofmind]

On 12/8/2022 at 10:39 PM, nj2va said:

Has anyone seen @vastateofmind recently? 

LOL. Checked in this morning for the first time in months to get the skinny on the impending frozen precip event tonight/tomorrow A.M. and saw this notification. Appreciate you asking.  

My day job and teaching as a side hustle, has been crazy busy since late spring and I've been scarce online in general. Have missed your Caps banter and trash talk, as well as hearing about the further adventures of @H2O's retirement, the end of @mattie g's and @Kay's growing seasons, and of course, all of the awesome IPA recommendations from @CAPE, @Scraff and other brew appreciators.

I'll probably lurk more again over the holidays, especially since it looks like a colder period coming up...and to drop the occasional photo, like this one captured on Fort Belvoir's parade field just before this morning's sunrise.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

That is a great long term solution, however, it sorta fails as a short term one. Besides I know how to have a conversation in Spanish but we have to include specific key words and verbs, we are supposed to make a script and memorize it. 

I’m sure you will do well, keep up the good work!

[toolsheds]

2 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

LOL. Checked in this morning for the first time in months to get the skinny on the impending frozen precip event tonight/tomorrow A.M. and saw this notification. Appreciate you asking.  

My day job and teaching as a side hustle, has been crazy busy since late spring and I've been scarce online in general. Have missed your Caps banter and trash talk, as well as hearing about the further adventures of @H2O's retirement, the end of @mattie g's and @Kay's growing seasons, and of course, all of the awesome IPA recommendations from @CAPE, @Scraff and other brew appreciators.

I'll probably lurk more again over the holidays, especially since it looks like a colder period coming up...and to drop the occasional photo, like this one captured on Fort Belvoir's parade field just before this morning's sunrise.

Good to see you!  And great Pic!

[Eskimo Joe]

Take a look at the hole in blizzard conditions in SW South Dakota. Imagine if that occurred here. Ji would have the meltdown to crash the board.

[North Balti Zen]

So, a cold front and some snow as it passes. That is…pretty underwhelming if it goes down like that. I guess better than a toaster bath but still…

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

So, a cold front and some snow as it passes. That is…pretty underwhelming if it goes down like that. I guess better than a toaster bath but still…

That's even if we get snow as a cold front passes.

Which is a... generous assumption in these parts.

OTOH, GEFS 12z has a miller B signature rather than a pure cutter. On 12/23 give or take

[Cobalt]

For the data-obsessed weather geeks like myself out there, it looks like the team that creates the NESIS snowfall map graphics went back and filled in the gaps for some of the storms from the 2000s-today. The graphics don't look as polished as some of the earlier ones, but it's nice to see some love for the storms that were somewhat prolific, but might've just not been considered at the end of their respective seasons. You can find that data here:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

This was a personal favorite of mine.

[gymengineer]

6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

For the data-obsessed weather geeks like myself out there, it looks like the team that creates the NESIS snowfall map graphics went back and filled in the gaps for some of the storms from the 2000s-today. The graphics don't look as polished as some of the earlier ones, but it's nice to see some love for the storms that were somewhat prolific, but might've just not been considered at the end of their respective seasons. You can find that data here:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

This was a personal favorite of mine.

I love the NESIS maps. I print them out and have them on my nightstand like other people would have pictures of their kids. I flip through my stack every night before turning off the lights to go to bed. 

 

[vastateofmind]

57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

36/21

Might see one mangled flake and a few sleet pellets before the steady rain gets going with rising temps. We do this so well.

Yes, but....how does your beer supply look this evening, @CAPE...just in case the situation worsens??   

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Good to see ya, @vastateofmind!  Fellow March 25 birthday!  Hope all is well...

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Yes, but....how does your beer supply look this evening, @CAPE...just in case the situation worsens??   

Supply is meager lol. Drank a 90 Min IPA. Now having a glass of red wine before dinner.

[vastateofmind]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

Supply is meager lol. Drank a 90 Min IPA. Now having a glass of red wine before dinner.

But....a DFH 90 Min IPA is worth, like, FIVE other "regular" beers. So, you're good!   

[Kay]

14 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

LOL. Checked in this morning for the first time in months to get the skinny on the impending frozen precip event tonight/tomorrow A.M. and saw this notification. Appreciate you asking.  

My day job and teaching as a side hustle, has been crazy busy since late spring and I've been scarce online in general. Have missed your Caps banter and trash talk, as well as hearing about the further adventures of @H2O's retirement, the end of @mattie g's and @Kay's growing seasons, and of course, all of the awesome IPA recommendations from @CAPE, @Scraff and other brew appreciators.

I'll probably lurk more again over the holidays, especially since it looks like a colder period coming up...and to drop the occasional photo, like this one captured on Fort Belvoir's parade field just before this morning's sunrise.

Nice to see you va! And cool pic!

You didn't miss much from me on the gardening front..the music part of my life got busy last spring and I was a slacker..but did grow a nice annuals pollinator patch and a shit-ton of basil Hope you're able to pop in to track the BIG ONE that is INEVITABLE...in our dreams

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

But....a DFH 90 Min IPA is worth, like, FIVE other "regular" beers. So, you're good!   

That would be the 120 lol. The 90 is a great balanced DIPA, around 9%.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I missed adding 2015 in that edit. Lol. 09-10 is the big dog grandaddy but there was a ton of dead space that winter even with obscene totals. Dec storm was almost written off 72 hours out. It wasn't a long track like the first Feb storm or Jan 2016.  Jan was rather frustrating until the lucky last minute north trend. From a tracking perspective I don't remember 09-10 being busy like the 13-15 stretch. Or Feb/Mar 2003. Those periods are what enthusiasts really thrive in.

Multiple threat threads for events with different synoptics is what I define as a heater. It's subjective of course. 13-15 stretch taught us a lot. We can snow from nearly any angle or setup that has a chance.... as long as a difficult to move cold dome is centered close by even if it's running away. Nobody can ever convince me that precip comes before cold because in my yard it certainly does not and when it accidentally does, it's gone before my coffee

Eta: once the artic front clears our area, it keeps the door open for some chances. Not none or one and done imo. If hl blocking follows a typical progression with a relax and reload it could crack the door open on a heater period with different setups or even a hostile west track dump. This is what I'm really focused on and why I have little to say leading into the first real cold. 

Totally agree.  2009-10 was incredible but you are correct that there was a lot of dead space, especially the very end of December through nearly all of January.  Not that I minded the end result, of course!  LOL!!  But yeah it wasn't the same in terms of constant tracking like that period in 2015 and nearly the entire winter of 2013-14.  Heck, I remember even YOU were saying after '13-14 that you were practically exhausted of tracking events, it was so busy that season!

Jan. 2016...that's the longest tracking I remember in my time here (well, maybe the PD-II storm too?).  Even that first Feb. 2010 HECS may not have been as long in advance.  I still have a vivid memory sitting in that Starbucks where the old Barnes and Noble was in Rockville (it's now a Burlington!), the Saturday before.  I was checking the discussion in here and it's like all the global models "clicked" on emphatically showing a big storm the next week.  And just like that, we all knew it.  Sure, many details had to be parsed out, but we all knew a big, very impactful storm, was coming the next weekend.  It was game time.  That was a cool feeling!  I got almost nothing done the entire next week following the latest guidance as it came in!

[MillvilleWx]

I hope this winter yields at least 2 to 3 storms that I can track with everyone here and get in the snow forecasting spirit. The way things are shaping up the end of the month are very promising for at least some snow squall potential with a powerful Arctic front. The best part about all this is it's still December. Our prime months are around the corner. Even a little snow will make things festive and ready for the holidays 

[MillvilleWx]

Also, this is a question for mods and owners @mappy @WxUSAF @stormtracker

Is it taboo to talk about any type of gambling in the banter threads, or should that be taken elsewhere? I just wanted to know if anyone here has participated in anything since MD introduced Online sports betting last month. I'll move any conversations if necessary, but wanted to check!

Thanks in advance. Hope you all are doing well 

[Paleocene]

10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Also, this is a question for mods and owners @mappy @WxUSAF @stormtracker

Is it taboo to talk about any type of gambling in the banter threads, or should that be taken elsewhere? I just wanted to know if anyone here has participated in anything since MD introduced Online sports betting last month. I'll move any conversations if necessary, but wanted to check!

Thanks in advance. Hope you all are doing well 

I've been using fanduel for some light NFL gambling. Easy to use, kind of spammy with offers to get you more deeply addicted though.

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Also, this is a question for mods and owners @mappy @WxUSAF @stormtracker

Is it taboo to talk about any type of gambling in the banter threads, or should that be taken elsewhere? I just wanted to know if anyone here has participated in anything since MD introduced Online sports betting last month. I'll move any conversations if necessary, but wanted to check!

Thanks in advance. Hope you all are doing well 

I don't think thats an issue. as long as it doesnt become a fight among people

[George BM]

Just now, mappy said:

I don't think thats an issue. as long as it doesnt become a fight among people

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

I've been using fanduel for some light NFL gambling. Easy to use, kind of spammy with offers to get you more deeply addicted though.

Awesome. I've been sports gambling for the past 10 months. It's a challenge, but can be a lot of fun. If I was back home, I'd be deep into it. I love betting props and lines. 

Just now, mappy said:

I don't think thats an issue. as long as it doesnt become a fight among people

Thanks mappy! Didn't want to bring up a subject that should be referenced elsewhere. And don't worry, no fights from me. I was just seeing if anyone was interested! 

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Also, this is a question for mods and owners @mappy @WxUSAF @stormtracker

Is it taboo to talk about any type of gambling in the banter threads, or should that be taken elsewhere? I just wanted to know if anyone here has participated in anything since MD introduced Online sports betting last month. I'll move any conversations if necessary, but wanted to check!

Thanks in advance. Hope you all are doing well 

As long as you kick the mods 20% of your winnings, we good.  

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I don't think thats an issue. as long as it doesnt become a fight among people

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Wow I didn’t realize TT now has all the good euro data! Such a friendlier site for mobile usage than pivotal. 

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Awesome. I've been sports gambling for the past 10 months. It's a challenge, but can be a lot of fun. If I was back home, I'd be deep into it. I love betting props and lines. 

I've been riding the unexpectedly extremely good eagles to success with moneyline and spread bets. Good way to enjoy additional eagles wins, after many years (2017-2018 excluded) of watching them lose.

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

As long as you kick the mods 20% of your winnings, we good.  

 

oooo good call. 

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I've been riding the unexpectedly extremely good eagles to success with moneyline and spread bets. Good way to enjoy additional eagles wins, after many years (2017-2018 excluded) of watching them lose.

Definitely one of the best teams to bet on for the NFL this year. They have won 1H moneyline all but 2 games this season as well. They have covered the 1H spread over 70% of the time as well. Kind of remarkable. 

The craziest stat of them all I know was if you teased the opponent of the Rams by 6 points on the final spread, you would be undefeated this season. That is absolutely incredible. 

[H2O]

Amwx Casino open for business.  We gamble every day in winter anyways

[H2O]

Odds are always in favor of warm/wet.  House wins

[LP08]

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Definitely one of the best teams to bet on for the NFL this year. They have won 1H moneyline all but 2 games this season as well. They have covered the 1H spread over 70% of the time as well. Kind of remarkable. 

The craziest stat of them all I know was if you teased the opponent of the Rams by 6 points on the final spread, you would be undefeated this season. That is absolutely incredible. 

I've dabbled over the last year or so, mostly Draftkings NBA props.  Lots of fun and makes me watch games.  I stink at NFL props currently.

 

To respond to @H2O, Warm/wet cold/dry is currently -1000