December Banter 2022

[WxUSAF]

Off topic, but has anyway been getting a LOT more really shitty ads on Twitter the last few days? 

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The newbs are getting a tad panicky over how the pattern might have some unfavorable characteristic as it evolves. Don't we always get the perfect pattern in a Nina?

The word trends has lost all meaning 

[H2O]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Off topic, but has anyway been getting a LOT more really shitty ads on Twitter the last few days? 

Yes. Elons version of this is fine

[CAPE]

I suppose it is arbitrary whether one is optimistic or pessimistic about the evolution of the upcoming advertised pattern. If one is pessimistic they are probably now at the stage of nitpicking details that may or may not be valid or even matter, and headed for full on perpetually telling us about everything that can(will) go wrong. In the end, nothing anyone thinks will happen has any influence on actual outcome. Given that, sure seems like having an optimistic outlook is a heck of a lot more healthy and fun.

[mappy]

It’s gonna get old real quick if we are living and dying by every eps run. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

It’s gonna get old real quick if we are living and dying by every eps run. 

Worse with the GFS/GEFS apparently. Dumpster fire and stuff. It must be right.

[H2O]

I live and die by every ICON run. And every CMC run. And every Taco Bell run

[H2O]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Worse with the GFS/GEFS apparently. Dumpster fire and stuff. It must be right.

The GFS nailed Ian

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Worse with the GFS/GEFS apparently. Dumpster fire and stuff. It must be right.

Yay winter lol

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I suppose it is arbitrary whether one is optimistic or pessimistic about the evolution of the upcoming advertised pattern. If one is pessimistic they are probably now at the stage of nitpicking details that may or may not be valid or even matter, and headed for full on perpetually telling us everything that can(will) go wrong. In the end, nothing anyone thinks will happen has any influence on actual outcome. Given that, sure seems like having an optimistic outlook is a heck of a lot more healthy and fun.

I think I’m as optimistic as anyone about this pattern and I have two assumptions:

1. It will probably take longer than “expected” to get snow out of this upcoming pattern. 
2. Our December snow climo sucks, so a “good” productive pattern this month might still result in like 3” for DCA and 4-6” for BWI and IAD.

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

It’s gonna get old real quick if we are living and dying by every eps run. 

Winter’s back!!

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

I live and die by every ICON run. And every CMC run. And every Taco Bell runs

Fixed it for you

[mappy]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I think I’m as optimistic as anyone about this pattern and I have two assumptions:

1. It will probably take longer than “expected” to get snow out of this upcoming pattern. 
2. Our December snow climo sucks, so a “good” productive pattern this month might still result in like 3” for DCA and 4-6” for BWI and IAD.

Winter’s back!!

lol see my post to cape above  great minds and all that 

[Ralph Wiggum]

36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Don't we always get the perfect pattern in a Nina?

Mods should add this to hand out like they used to weenie tags:

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yay winter lol

 

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think I’m as optimistic as anyone about this pattern and I have two assumptions:

1. It will probably take longer than “expected” to get snow out of this upcoming pattern. 
2. Our December snow climo sucks, so a “good” productive pattern this month might still result in like 3” for DCA and 4-6” for BWI and IAD.

Winter’s back!!

Why are you saying its winter?  Winter doesn't start for another

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

24 minutes ago, H2O said:

I live and die by every ICON run. And every CMC run. And every Taco Bell run

Drop the chalupa! 

 

[H2O]

Will anyone get that reference or am I showing my age now?

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I think I’m as optimistic as anyone about this pattern and I have two assumptions:

1. It will probably take longer than “expected” to get snow out of this upcoming pattern. 
2. Our December snow climo sucks, so a “good” productive pattern this month might still result in like 3” for DCA and 4-6” for BWI and IAD.

Winter’s back!!

I think our lack of experience with modelled -NAO events is also hurting our sense of time with this upcoming pattern. The one I can remember somewhat vividly is the late Jan 2021 blocking event, where both the GEFS and EPS were spitting out super cold and snowy 10-15 day looks starting around the 5th of January. It still took until very late into the month to get any meaningful cold, and basically on the cusp of February for meaningful snow. That was at the heart of snow and cold climo, so us being in December definitely can't help in those departments. 

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Fixed it for you

precip forecasts looks wet and brown

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I think our lack of experience with modelled -NAO events is also hurting our sense of time with this upcoming pattern. The one I can remember somewhat vividly is the late Jan 2021 blocking event, where both the GEFS and EPS were spitting out super cold and snowy 10-15 day looks starting around the 5th of January. It still took until very late into the month to get any meaningful cold, and basically on the cusp of February for meaningful snow. That was at the heart of snow and cold climo, so us being in December definitely can't help in those departments. 

It’s not just us. The SNE weenies are doing the same thing. For lack of a better term, good patterns often have to “marinate” for a bit before we get snow out of them. Isn’t always true, this past January being a prime example, but it is more common to have to wait. With the AO and NAO looking like that, I think a generally favorable environment is going to stick around for awhile. And are many people really going to complain if our better snow chances are in the week leading up to Xmas vs Dec 7-12??

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, H2O said:

precip forecasts looks wet and brown

Diarrhea can be a serious issue for people your (our!) age! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s not just us. The SNE weenies are doing the same thing. For lack of a better term, good patterns often have to “marinate” for a bit before we get snow out of them. Isn’t always true, this past January being a prime example, but it is more common to have to wait. With the AO and NAO looking like that, I think a generally favorable environment is going to stick around for awhile. And are many people really going to complain if our better snow chances are in the week leading up to Xmas vs Dec 7-12??

As per usual as well, something will eventually pop-up in the short-range while the focus in the discussion thread may be focused on the LR. 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s not just us. The SNE weenies are doing the same thing. For lack of a better term, good patterns often have to “marinate” for a bit before we get snow out of them. Isn’t always true, this past January being a prime example, but it is more common to have to wait. With the AO and NAO looking like that, I think a generally favorable environment is going to stick around for awhile. And are many people really going to complain if our better snow chances are in the week leading up to Xmas vs Dec 7-12??

I think it's the worry of delayed becoming denied. As you've mentioned, we are in a much better position to can kick this early in the season, but it's hard for some to view it that way when whatever is on the other side of this pattern isn't in the medium range yet. Once those trackable threats begin to show up, people will loosen up a bit. 

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I think it's the worry of delayed becoming denied. As you've mentioned, we are in a much better position to can kick this early in the season, but it's hard for some to view it that way when whatever is on the other side of this pattern isn't in the medium range yet. Once those trackable threats begin to show up, people will loosen up a bit. 

Worry posts spread like wildfire in the LR thread - if the 12-17th window gets pushed back to the end of December, it’ll quite literally be a dumpster fire of moaning and groaning.  We’ve seen delayed = denied but I have a hard time believing we come out of the upcoming advertised without seeing any snow (unless the thing just goes poof in the next 5 days which seems unlikely).  We also have to remember total annual snowfall in DC is like 15-20” depending on where you are in the immediate metro area…coming out of this pattern with a 4-8” moderate event is climo.

[H2O]

[Cobalt]

27 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Worry posts spread like wildfire in the LR thread - if the 12-17th window gets pushed back to the end of December, it’ll quite literally be a dumpster fire of moaning and groaning.  We’ve seen delayed = denied but I have a hard time believing we come out of the upcoming advertised without seeing any snow (unless the thing just goes poof in the next 5 days which seems unlikely).  We also have to remember total annual snowfall in DC is like 15-20” depending on where you are in the immediate metro area…coming out of this pattern with a 4-6” moderate event is climo.

I think this is an extra layer to the worry for some people as well. A good pattern will necessitate that the nail biting over long range pattern trends turns into nail biting over medium/short range threats and their respective modeled outputs. We don't do uncomplicated setups that often, especially in Ninas, so it can be difficult not to sweat over threats until you're watching snow falling out of the sky (and even then people will worry about the back edge, dry slot, etc). That's why last January was pretty special for me, we had 3 relatively uncomplicated setups that all gave sizeable snows before the pattern was supposed to "get good". Even then, there were still substantial winners and losers in each threat.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

 

Why are you saying its winter?  Winter doesn't start for another

Diaf

[WxWatcher007]

 

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Diaf

You mean this?

[mappy]

Just now, H2O said:

You mean this?

Yes lol thanks, didn’t have it saved to post 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

"I'm retired. But damn panicking weenies keep trying to suck me back in to take care of them. Get off my damn lawn and reap your own soul if you're that desperate!"