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December Banter 2022

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted

Forecast Discussion

Sunday, December 25, 2022 1:00PM EST

Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5pm est, Dec 25, 2022

High Wind Warning in effect until 8am est, Dec 26, 2022

Wind Chill Warning in effect from 8pm est, Dec 25, 2022 until 10am est Dec 26, 2022

The next 36 to 48 hours will be very notable in the sensible weather department. An intense snow squall w/ occasional lightning associated with the arctic front is currently moving east through the Appalachian mountains at around 50 or so kts. Snow Squall Warnings are already in place extending from eastern WV to the I-95 corridor. With increased sunshine associated with the mid-level dryslot moving overhead surface temps ahead of the line have warmed up into the upper 30s/lower 40s while dewpoints remain relatively high in the mid/upper 20s across the DC and Baltimore metros. With the very steep environmental lapse-rates immediately ahead of the front a couple hundred j/kg of MLCAPE has developed. This combined with the extreme forcing along the front courtesy of the impressive dynamics associated with the shortwave through swinging through and strong deep-layer shear in place (especially considering the thermodynamics) may lead to even further intensification of this low-topped convection. Lots of areas in northern WV received a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow from this squall. While temperature east of the mountains are well above freezing even more extreme snowfall rates, owing to the increasing instability that the system is moving into, will offset the effects of initial melting and graupel mixed in with the snow so that snow totals are similar east of the mountains.

Snow Squall Impacts:

1.      Widespread severe wind gusts (55-65+ mph) will accompany this squall leading to scattered to numerous power outages and many downed trees.

2.      Instantaneous snowfall rates of several inches per hour will lead to whiteout conditions w/ visibilities dropping to 100 feet or less at times. Snowfall amounts will total 1 to 3 inches w/ locally higher amounts possible.

3.      Temperatures will rapidly fall from near 40F into the 20s in a matter of minutes leading to flash freeze conditions across the entire area as the system moves through.

All of this will combine to make travel virtually impossible for a time. Use extreme caution and avoid travel until the squall has passed. Even then, use extreme caution with icy roadways and downed trees/powerlines.

Other than wind and snow, the temperatures tonight and tomorrow will be the main story. West-northwesterly winds will remain very strong with sustained winds of 25 to 40mph and gusts to around 60mph through the evening and much of the night. Winds will still be gusting to around 45mph by dawn Monday morning. Meanwhile, temperatures will fall through the 10s and into the single-digits through the evening and overnight hours bottoming out in the lower single-digits in the urban corridor and southeast areas w/ lower negative single-digits well northwest and around 0F in the close-in NW suburbs. Wind chills will hover around 20 to 30F below zero across the Greater Metropolitan area throughout the overnight hours until dawn w/ windchills falling to as low as 35F below zero in far northwestern suburbs. Temperatures will only rise into the mid-10s or so during the afternoon with wind chills remaining around 0 to -5F with the still brisk though, by then, sub-advisory level winds. With diminishing winds and clear skies Monday night into Tuesday morning leading to decent enough radiational cooling conditions, temperatures may drop to as low as -5 to -10F in the coldest northwestern suburbs and valleys with temps probably remaining at or just above zero in urban areas and near the bay.

 

Alerts:

Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5pm est, Dec 25, 2022

High Wind Warning in effect until 8am est, Dec 26, 2022

Wind Chill Warning in effect from 8pm est, Dec 25, 2022 until 10am est Dec 26, 2022

 

“Forecaster”: George BM

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vastateofmind
vastateofmind

LOL. Checked in this morning for the first time in months to get the skinny on the impending frozen precip event tonight/tomorrow A.M. and saw this notification. Appreciate you asking.   My day jo

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

Merry Christmas 

nw baltimore wx
nw baltimore wx

Rough last few months here with Dad passing and girlfriend moving on, but I will always survive and be better for it. And Christmas will always be my favorite season.    

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, H2O said:

I always debate changing mine but then I fear my posts would be completely ignored instead of the current 80% ignored

You changing your picture would be like my dad getting a nose ring; it would undermine the very foundations of my reality.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Sunday, December 25, 2022 1:00PM EST

Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5pm est, Dec 25, 2022

High Wind Warning in effect until 8am est, Dec 26, 2022

Wind Chill Warning in effect from 8pm est, Dec 25, 2022 until 10am est Dec 26, 2022

The next 36 to 48 hours will be very notable in the sensible weather department. An intense snow squall w/ occasional lightning associated with the arctic front is currently moving east through the Appalachian mountains at around 50 or so kts. Snow Squall Warnings are already in place extending from eastern WV to the I-95 corridor. With increased sunshine associated with the mid-level dryslot moving overhead surface temps ahead of the line have warmed up into the upper 30s/lower 40s while dewpoints remain relatively high in the mid/upper 20s across the DC and Baltimore metros. With the very steep environmental lapse-rates immediately ahead of the front a couple hundred j/kg of MLCAPE has developed. This combined with the extreme forcing along the front courtesy of the impressive dynamics associated with the shortwave through swinging through and strong deep-layer shear in place (especially considering the thermodynamics) may lead to even further intensification of this low-topped convection. Lots of areas in northern WV received a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow from this squall. While temperature east of the mountains are well above freezing even more extreme snowfall rates, owing to the increasing instability that the system is moving into, will offset the effects of initial melting and graupel mixed in with the snow so that snow totals are similar east of the mountains.

Snow Squall Impacts:

1.      Widespread severe wind gusts (55-65+ mph) will accompany this squall leading to scattered to numerous power outages and many downed trees.

2.      Instantaneous snowfall rates of several inches per hour will lead to whiteout conditions w/ visibilities dropping to 100 feet or less at times. Snowfall amounts will total 1 to 3 inches w/ locally higher amounts possible.

3.      Temperatures will rapidly fall from near 40F into the 20s in a matter of minutes leading to flash freeze conditions across the entire area as the system moves through.

All of this will combine to make travel virtually impossible for a time. Use extreme caution and avoid travel until the squall has passed. Even then, use extreme caution with icy roadways and downed trees/powerlines.

Other than wind and snow, the temperatures tonight and tomorrow will be the main story. West-northwesterly winds will remain very strong with sustained winds of 25 to 40mph and gusts to around 60mph through the evening and much of the night. Winds will still be gusting to around 45mph by dawn Monday morning. Meanwhile, temperatures will fall through the 10s and into the single-digits through the evening and overnight hours bottoming out in the lower single-digits in the urban corridor and southeast areas w/ lower negative single-digits well northwest and around 0F in the close-in NW suburbs. Wind chills will hover around 20 to 30F below zero across the Greater Metropolitan area throughout the overnight hours until dawn w/ windchills falling to as low as 35F below zero in far northwestern suburbs. Temperatures will only rise into the mid-10s or so during the afternoon with wind chills remaining around 0 to -5F with the still brisk though, by then, sub-advisory level winds. With diminishing winds and clear skies Monday night into Tuesday morning leading to decent enough radiational cooling conditions, temperatures may drop to as low as -5 to -10F in the coldest northwestern suburbs and valleys with temps probably remaining at or just above zero in urban areas and near the bay.

 

Alerts:

Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5pm est, Dec 25, 2022

High Wind Warning in effect until 8am est, Dec 26, 2022

Wind Chill Warning in effect from 8pm est, Dec 25, 2022 until 10am est Dec 26, 2022

 

“Forecaster”: George BM

This sounds surprisingly similar to what actually happened on Feb. 14, 2015!  Strong cold front blasted through, a couple hours burst of snow that dropped a quick ~2" where I'm at...followed by strong winds and very cold!

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George BM

George BM

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42 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

This sounds surprisingly similar to what actually happened on Feb. 14, 2015!  Strong cold front blasted through, a couple hours burst of snow that dropped a quick ~2" where I'm at...followed by strong winds and very cold!

The event IS based off of the V-Day 2015 snow squall... but a weenier version of it during the daylight hours... and on everyones favorite day of seeing snow. So yes... you wouldn't be wrong to say it's similar to that event. :D

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Kay

Kay

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, George BM said:

The event IS based off of the V-Day 2015 snow squall... but a weenier version of it during the daylight hours... and on everyones favorite day of seeing snow. So yes... you wouldn't be wrong to say it's similar to that event. :D

I LOVED that squall. Maybe the best rates I've ever seen(?) I remember being mesmerized by these wild rippling shadows cast on the ground by all that densely falling snow. I believe we've reminisced before and for some it was nbd but awesome here. The modest amount of snow really did its best to drift, too.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, George BM said:

The event IS based off of the V-Day 2015 snow squall... but a weenier version of it during the daylight hours... and on everyones favorite day of seeing snow. So yes... you wouldn't be wrong to say it's similar to that event. :D

Ha!  That's great!  And true, it's the weenie version of the real thing (though the real one was pretty weenieish in itself)!

 

5 minutes ago, Kay said:

I LOVED that squall. Maybe the best rates I've ever seen(?) I remember being mesmerized by these wild rippling shadows cast on the ground by all that densely falling snow. I believe we've reminisced before and for some it was nbd but awesome here. The modest amount of snow really did its best to drift, too.

That still stands as my all-time favorite "minor" event around here.  At least in part because of what it ushered in for the next 3-4 weeks.  Here's a snow-encased tree after the snow ended and just as the winds were really picking up.

Snow_2015Feb14_28.thumb.JPG.8d2fda6c8b9a021d1db2e6df70a8724a.JPG

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

We'll always have the exuberance of the long range thread Oct/Nov last week of Nov 2022 discussion pages. I will reserve a table at Maggiano's in Columbia for Nov. 2027 so we can gather and re-live it for the five year anniversary.

Make sure we get a nice bottle of merlot. 2022 will be a good year for whine

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