SPC: 11/29/22 MDT likely High Risk Outlook Issued - Regional outbreak possible.

[kayman]

Quote

 

SPC AC 291621

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1021 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

   Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
   ARKANSAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST
   ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are
   forecast this afternoon into the overnight period across parts of
   the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and parts of the
   Southeast.

   ...Regional Outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is
   forecast today and tonight for parts of the lower Mississippi
   Valley...

   ...Lower MS Valley...
   Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over much of
   the CONUS this morning, with several fast moving shortwave troughs
   moving across the southwest into the southern Plains.  Strong
   southerly low-level winds have developed across the lower MS Valley,
   aiding in the rapid return of rich Gulf moisture.  Dewpoints in the
   mid/upper 60s have spread into much of east TX and LA, and should
   extend into central MS by mid-afternoon.  Plentiful low clouds are
   present, limiting daytime heating.  But relatively steep mid-level
   lapse rates and returning moisture will lead to widespread MLCAPE
   values of 1000-1500 J/kg later today, with only a weak cap.

   Vertical shear profiles are very strong throughout the region, with 
   effective SRH values of 200-400 m2/s2 beneath 50+ knots of
   deep-layer shear.  Given the subtle forcing today, relatively
   long-lived discrete supercell storms are expected with an attendant
   threat of intense and long-track tornadoes.

   Present indications are that primary thunderstorm development will
   begin early this afternoon over parts of LA, spreading quickly into
   MS.  This corridor may see multiple waves of severe convection as
   storms redevelop upstream through the evening.  Along with the
   strong tornado threat, very large hail and damaging wind gusts may
   occur with these storms.  Consideration was made to introduce a
   small HIGH risk, but still too much uncertainty in the exact
   corridor of highest risk since moisture is not yet in place and
   there is no surface boundary to focus on.

   ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/29/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1944Z (2:44PM)

 

 

 

 

A significant threat for a regional severe weather and tornado outbreak is possible this afternoon and evening across Northern Mississippi, Northwestern Alabama.  There's a possibility of a couple of long-tracked damaging tornadoes as well. 

 

[brianc33710]

I'm working but trying to monitor things from Hoover, AL. 

[kayman]

Quote

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

High (90%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 572
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Arkansas
     Northern and Central Louisiana
     Central Mississippi

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until
     700 PM CST.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon and
   track northeastward across much of northeast Louisiana and central
   Mississippi.  Parameters appear favorable for strong and
   long-tracked tornadoes this afternoon and early evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 25 miles north of Fort Polk LA to 55
   miles south of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see
   the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24035.

   ...Hart

PDS Tornado Watch is in effect until 7:00PM Central Standard Time for North Central Mississippi and the majority of the northern half of Louisiana. 

 

 

[kayman]

5 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

I'm working but trying to monitor things from Hoover, AL. 

Yeah, I'm a Birmingham native who now lives in Charlotte. I'm praying for you all including my family members in the Greater Birmingham area tonight. This event looks to be very nasty and potentially a very long night I'm afraid. 

[Normandy]

Maybe we can move all the other posts here?  Might get confusing with 2 threads

[kayman]

1 minute ago, Normandy said:

Maybe we can move all the other posts here?  Might get confusing with 2 threads

If you know how to get moderators to such then please do!

 

I just know that the posters in MS and AL should be on alert for this significant threat regardless

[SharonA]

 

I'm keeping an eye on this, some of the activity is/will be impacting the NW AL area where I've got connections.  But, since the rest of y'all have tons more actual meteorological knowledge than I do, I'm mostly just a lurker on these threads. As are several coworkers and friends whom I direct to this site for information to supplement their watching more official sources. Unfortunately this lack of activity it gets taken for "lack of interest by the SouthEastern group", but we're watching.

Cells in NW AL have been showing hints of rotation but nothing seems to stick around enough (yet) to merit a warning.

 

 

[nwohweather]

Would we be able to merge threads as this is sort of a cross regional situation? 

[SharonA]

 

Lots of little algo-flags being triggered along the leading edge, but nothing kicking in hard yet other than storm.  Hail 2 days before December is still generally not welcomed by the people underneath it.

[SluggerWx]

Two TORs now MS with another about to be warned.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[SluggerWx]

Couplet in Coila, MS needs a warning.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

[cheese007]

3 tor warned storms already. Gonna be a long night

[SharonA]

TOG now -

 

498
WFUS54 KJAN 292133
TORJAN
MSC019-097-105-155-292230-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0084.221129T2133Z-221129T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
333 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Choctaw County in central Mississippi...
  Northwestern Oktibbeha County in northeastern Mississippi...
  Webster County in north central Mississippi...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in north central Mississippi...

* Until 430 PM CST.

* At 332 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Poplar Creek,
  or 12 miles southeast of Winona, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* The tornado will be near...
  Eupora around 400 PM CST.
  Sherwood and Reform around 405 PM CST.
  Maben, Mathiston and Clarkson around 410 PM CST.
  Cumberland around 415 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mantee
and Walthall.

 

 

 

[DanLarsen34]

.

[brianc33710]

Is this thread dead?

[nwohweather]

21 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Is this thread dead?

Most people in the central and western thread