Winter Banter Thread

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Just a free thinker?

Living in an alternate reality I'm guessing 

[Rjay]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

lots of people don't understand that a great pattern only increases odds

so there might be a 2-5% chance on any given day in Dec 15 - Jan 15 that NYC sees over 6" of snow. in this pattern, it's more like 40-60%, which is astronomically better, but you still have room to fail. it's not a guarantee, and we've gotten unlucky

 

Just now, Rjay said:

There's no pattern that can guarantee the goods though.  So I'd take a pattern with a high ceiling any day. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

@Rjay i'm not sure why that concept gets lost on people... it's not difficult to understand

[Rjay]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

@Rjay i'm not sure why that concept gets lost on people... it's not difficult to understand

Emotion 

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

There's no pattern that can guarantee the goods though.  So I'd take a pattern with a high ceiling any day. 

Agree 100%, convince the weenies of these facts. We wish you the best of luck. 

[Dark Star]

27 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Thanks for highlighting the evolution and refinement of knowledge. Take a look at the period before and during the 1970's.

What is amazing, the temperature really increases as the manufacturing began leaving the United States...

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agree 100%, convince the weenies of these facts. We wish you the best of luck. 

I still think there's a threat after Christmas before we warm up 

[IrishRob17]

Just now, Rjay said:

I still think there's a threat after Christmas before we warm up 

Every time a weenie melts a snowstorm gets its wings?  

[WestBabylonWeather]

46 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Climate change.


.

I used to be here

then one day it clicks that 2+2 = 4

injecting a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere will do greenhouse things. We better stop. 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

What is amazing, the temperature really increases as the manufacturing began leaving the United States...

Yeah, that’s outsourcing of emissions as our emissions have been in decline. But at least we have much cleaner air here with more natural gas instead of dirty coal. Automobile emissions have really improved with much less smog than we had years ago. Emissions and global temperatures didn’t rise that much from 1880 to 1980, so we were still able to get the historic cold in the 1970s. But with the rapid increase in emissions in Asia due to all the manufacturing and population growth, the temperatures have really taken off since the 1980s.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/if-carbon-dioxide-hits-new-high-every-year-why-isn’t-every-year-hotter-last

[Juliancolton]

30 minutes ago, Rjay said:

There was high end potential.  It didn't happen so it was a terrible pattern.

These forums...lol

Yeah, and it's not like it was just some abstraction that we have to accept on faith. The big synoptic storms have been there. The cold air was around. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s outsourcing of emissions as our emissions have been in decline. But at least we have much cleaner air here with more natural gas instead of dirty coal. Automobile emissions have really improved with much less smog than we had years ago. Emissions and global temperatures didn’t rise that much from 1880 to 1980, so we were still able to get the historic cold in the 1970s. But with the rapid increase in emissions in Asia due to all the manufacturing and population growth, the temperatures have really taken off since the 1980s.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/if-carbon-dioxide-hits-new-high-every-year-why-isn’t-every-year-hotter-last

When we solve nuclear fusion we will have the unlimited electricity necessary to power CO2 atmosphere cleaning 

[WestBabylonWeather]

37 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I see it differently than most.


.

It’s very simplistic. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. And we are putting said gas into the atmosphere at an unnatural rate. The end 

[EasternLI]

I'm far from sold on an extended warmup. 

[NorthShoreWx]

If there is no snow on the ground beforehand, is it really a Grinch storm?

[WestBabylonWeather]

I usually like Larry cosgroves write ups. He things we stay cold, then a January thaw second half of January, then a cold February. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just don’t ask him questions he gets upset 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

When we solve nuclear fusion we will have the unlimited electricity necessary to power CO2 atmosphere cleaning 

Yeah, that was the big announcement during the week.

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's hard to deny the effects of AGW. 

That ridge will eventually be responsible for a Major hurricane slamming directly into us

It has less influence in the summer months somewhat than it does in winter, you get patterns and teloconnections lining up differently.  Also no idea if the inevitable flip to a cold AMO may cool those waters

[SnoSki14]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was the big announcement during the week.

 

 

It'll still take decades until nuclear fusion become viable 

A lot of time for AGW to worsen. Maybe nuclear power could buy us more time 

[BxEngine]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

If there is no snow on the ground beforehand, is it really a Grinch storm?

Yes. Previous snow has nothing to do with a storm ruining how people feel christmas should feel. 

[Swaneyb]

It’s very simplistic. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. And we are putting said gas into the atmosphere at an unnatural rate. The end 

Serious question what caused all of the ice to melt in the north east after the last ice age. I'm sure the answer is temperature rise. What caused it to rise? Climate change. Earth is billions of hears old and humans have been here a micro second of that time. Hard to believe for me co2 from humans is doing that when the earth has gone through non stop drastic temperature changes


.

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It'll still take decades until nuclear fusion become viable 

A lot of time for AGW to worsen. Maybe nuclear power could buy us more time 

2-3C of warming by later this century will be tough to avoid. But maybe nuclear fusion can become viable and cheap enough within the next 50 years to prevent 4-5C of warming. Fossil fuels will still be our primary energy source for decades to come. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61802802

Their 17th annual status report draws on over 600 experts to produce a snapshot of what is really happening in terms of renewable energy. 

The study says that the transition to renewables, in essence, has stalled. The use of coal, oil and gas continues to dominate total energy consumption.

The share of renewable energy has moved in the last decade from 10.6% to 11.7%, but fossil fuels, all coal and gas have moved from 80.1% to 79.6%. So, it's stagnating," said Rana Adib, the executive director of REN21. 

"And since the energy demand is rising, this actually means that we are consuming more fossil fuels than ever."

 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2-3C of warming by later this century will be tough to avoid. But maybe nuclear fusion can become viable and cheap enough within the next 50 years to prevent 4-5C of warming. Fossil fuels will still be our primary energy source for decades to come. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61802802

Their 17th annual status report draws on over 600 experts to produce a snapshot of what is really happening in terms of renewable energy. 

The study says that the transition to renewables, in essence, has stalled. The use of coal, oil and gas continues to dominate total energy consumption.

The share of renewable energy has moved in the last decade from 10.6% to 11.7%, but fossil fuels, all coal and gas have moved from 80.1% to 79.6%. So, it's stagnating," said Rana Adib, the executive director of REN21. 

"And since the energy demand is rising, this actually means that we are consuming more fossil fuels than ever."

 

2C would be really bad. We're just around 1C and things are already terrible 

[Superstorm]

Yeah, that’s outsourcing of emissions as our emissions have been in decline. But at least we have much cleaner air here with more natural gas instead of dirty coal. Automobile emissions have really improved with much less smog than we had years ago. Emissions and global temperatures didn’t rise that much from 1880 to 1980, so we were still able to get the historic cold in the 1970s. But with the rapid increase in emissions in Asia due to all the manufacturing and population growth, the temperatures have really taken off since the 1980s.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/if-carbon-dioxide-hits-new-high-every-year-why-isn’t-every-year-hotter-last

Asia’s growth has impacted global warming significantly.


.

[gravitylover]

I'll go with the warming climate being influenced by humans but not because we're sloppy and emissions are too high. If we had paid attention and kept population growth reasonable and within the water and food production limits rather than watching it go over 8 billion people that need things it might have been manageable. What was the global population in ~1970?

[WestBabylonWeather]

Nuclear power is a great alternative but big oil won’t allow it. I mean here on Long Island we had shoreham and it never even went online they squashed it 

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I'll go with the warming climate being influenced by humans but not because we're sloppy and emissions are too high. If we had paid attention and kept population growth reasonable and within the water and food production limits rather than watching it go over 8 billion people that need things it might have been manageable. What was the global population in ~1970?

Good grief.  This thread is sinking faster than cement shoes in the Hudson.

[chrisNJ]

I don’t post often but isn’t there already a climate change thread?  I work in the environmental field and know a little about the warming and it’s reality but We have pro mets posting great thoughts about model runs and analysis and it’s getting lost in all the banter. 

[USCG RS]

28 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Nuclear power is a great alternative but big oil won’t allow it. I mean here on Long Island we had shoreham and it never even went online they squashed it 

And we still paid for it.