Winter Banter Thread

[North and West]

It's amazing how the cold air vanished on the models moving forward. What a epic bust with the cold pattern.
 
Weeklies fail
 
-NAO
-AO
-EPO
+PNA 
All failure

It feels like the focus on increasing expertise should be on the 6-10 day window, since so many changes still occur, especially with wintertime forecasting. There always seem to be so many dynamic moving parts; much like a protractor, one angle degree off at Point A leads to wide differentials the further out you get.

With 11+ day forecasts, it’s just way too variable. It doesn’t *seem* any different to the amateur eye versus what I remember from 30+ years ago.

It’s not the same as much with established tropical systems such as Cape Verde hurricanes, since they take such a long, slow time to develop once they start.

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, North and West said:

It feels like the focus on increasing expertise should be on the 6-10 day window, since so many changes still occur, especially with wintertime forecasting. There always seem to be so many dynamic moving parts; much like a protractor, one angle degree off at Point A leads to wide differentials the further out you get.

With 11+ day forecasts, it’s just way too variable. It doesn’t *seem* any different to the amateur eye versus what I remember from 30+ years ago.

It’s not the same as much with established tropical systems such as Cape Verde hurricanes, since they take such a long, slow time to develop once they start.

Remember the days when nothing beyond 5 days would even be discussed lol?

 

[North and West]

Remember the days when nothing beyond 5 days would even be discussed lol?
 

I do. And how much TWC 5 Day Forecasts would change.


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[IrishRob17]

[WarrenCtyWx]

Maybe reverse psychology will help it snow.

[crossbowftw3]

Or maybe Matt Ryan actually holding onto a 25+ point lead for once will cause it to snow around here 

[MJO812]

Gfs crushes Chicago 

This sucks

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs crushes Chicago 

This sucks

99 repeat

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

99 repeat

Wow

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs crushes Chicago 

This sucks

And after the cold shot for Christmas weekend and early the week of the 26th, it looks as if we'll go into an extended warm pattern. If it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm. Let it torch for New Year's. 

[IrishRob17]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And after the cold shot for Christmas weekend and early the week of the 26th, it looks as if we'll go into an extended warm pattern. If it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm. Let it torch for New Year's. 

<cue the home heating cost posts>

[Stormlover74]

[Winterweatherlover]

I feel like we go through this every winter with the big expectations and then the doom and gloom. The reality is it doesn't usually snow much before January in our region, it almost always warms up sometime around Christmas and it snows from time to time but not that often in this area. I don't think winter is over.

[IrishRob17]

18 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I feel like we go through this every winter with the big expectations and then the doom and gloom. The reality is it doesn't usually snow much before January in our region, it almost always warms up sometime around Christmas and it snows from time to time but not that often in this area. I don't think winter is over.

And some think that you are a new poster…

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I feel like we go through this every winter with the big expectations and then the doom and gloom. The reality is it doesn't usually snow much before January in our region, it almost always warms up sometime around Christmas and it snows from time to time but not that often in this area. I don't think winter is over.

Not over but the December to remember is.

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Not over but the December to remember is.

I think this December will be burned into many a brain for years to come...

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

I think this December will be burned into many a brain for years to come...

Luckily all the threats failed to materialize well in advance 

[North and West]

I feel like we go through this every winter with the big expectations and then the doom and gloom. The reality is it doesn't usually snow much before January in our region, it almost always warms up sometime around Christmas and it snows from time to time but not that often in this area. I don't think winter is over.

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[Brasiluvsnow]

2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Maybe reverse psychology will help it snow.

Ahhh " The Costanza " approach I LIKE IT 

[wishcast_hater]

I think with climate change we might also be seeing a feedback effect, so with time the changes become more and more apparent.
So an analogy might be like....if steroids weren't banned, players would keep hitting more and more HR.....so McGwire with 70 and then Bonds with 73 and then a few years later someone else would hit 80, then 85, etc.

Climate change.


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[Volcanic Winter]

3 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Climate change.


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Thanks for highlighting the evolution and refinement of knowledge. Take a look at the period before and during the 1970's.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I think this December will be burned into many a brain for years to come...

I would take this look every December.  

[Rjay]

17 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Climate change.


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Lol, that's all you got?

[wishcast_hater]

Thanks for highlighting the evolution and refinement of knowledge. Take a look at the period before and during the 1970's.

I see it differently than most.


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[Rjay]

Just now, wishcast_hater said:

I see it differently than most.


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Just a free thinker?

[Juliancolton]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I would take this look every December.  

If it weren't for the lofty potential, I'd have been ok with this month locally. 5.5" of snow over a few events. Nothing legendary, but far from the worst December in recent times. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

If it weren't for the lofty potential, I'd have been ok with this month locally. 5.5" of snow over a few events. Nothing legendary, but far from the worst December in recent times. 

There was high end potential.  It didn't happen so it was a terrible pattern.

These forums...lol

[IrishRob17]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I would take this look every December.  

Well not everyone likes to window shop, they'd rather get the goods. IMBY, I'm a couple inches short of normal December snowfall so no complaints from me.  I'm sure I just set up @BxEngine with a couple one liners. 

[brooklynwx99]

lots of people don't understand that a great pattern only increases odds

so there might be a 2-5% chance on any given day in Dec 15 - Jan 15 that NYC sees over 6" of snow. in this pattern, it's more like 40-60%, which is astronomically better, but you still have room to fail. it's not a guarantee, and we've gotten unlucky

[Rjay]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

Well not everyone likes to window shop, they'd rather get the goods. IMBY, I'm a couple inches short of normal December snowfall so no complaints from me.  I'm sure I just set up @BxEngine with a couple one liners. 

There's no pattern that can guarantee the goods though.  So I'd take a pattern with a high ceiling any day.