Nibor Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 9! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 On 11/28/2022 at 8:23 PM, forkyfork said: it's gonna tuck south of long island and slot u called it 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Thanks for those of you that had patience. It might not work out in the end but we've had a few trackable events so far and we will for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: Thanks for those of you that had patience. It might not work out in the end but we've had a few trackable events so far and we will for the foreseeable future. But the qg guy said warm into January? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 almost the entire state of North Dakota is under a blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 9 hours ago, forkyfork said: called it I can’t handle being slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Gfs all alone what could go wrong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs all alone what could go wrong Boxing Day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: Boxing Day. Not a week out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Not a week out How long will it take the gfs to jump 1000 miles west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: How long will it take the gfs to jump 1000 miles west? Less than 48 hours but probably by tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: No it wasn't. It was too far south and east and too cold. GFS as late as yesterday was giving my area around 6 inches and most other models were giving it close to zero. We got close to zero. When GFS is on it's own it's nearly always wrong. Not picking on or defending any model here and looking just at this Total Positive Snow Depth map from yesterdays 12z GFS. This happened to work out well IMBY and shows the snow hole in Dutchess. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Rayno should change his name to Raino 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Not picking on or defending any model here and looking just at this Total Positive Snow Depth map from yesterdays 12z GFS. This happened to work out well IMBY and shows the snow hole in Dutchess. Yes, one of the last models runs before the event. It's kuchera map was still showing 7 inches for Poughkeepsie on it's 18z run yesterday while all other models were showing little to nothing. I know snow maps aren't the be all and end all and are often very inaccurate but cmon. It's just a bad model and lagging behind the European and Canadian models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Yes, one of the last models runs before the event. It's kuchera map was still showing 7 inches for Poughkeepsie on it's 18z run yesterday while all other models were showing little to nothing. I know snow maps aren't the be all and end all and are often very inaccurate but cmon. It's just a bad model and lagging behind the European and Canadian models. If you take model output at face value you’re gonna have a bad time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 if this actually cuts to Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 45 minutes ago, Nibor said: If you take model output at face value you’re gonna have a bad time. I don't and it's not just model output or this one particular storm. It's just a bad model that has had worse results after an upgrade. It's far worse than both the Euro and CMC. Look at what is happening with next week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 so much for an “epic pattern” dont wanna hear that shit ever again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Last time I want to see people going crazy over reds in the nao region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Last time I want to see people going crazy over reds in the nao region there's too much that can go wrong and after the fact people blame the 'east based' block or the 'south based' block lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 hours ago, Rjay said: How long will it take the gfs to jump 1000 miles west? 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Last time I want to see people going crazy over reds in the nao region NAO is over-rated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: NAO is over-rated No it's not 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: No it's not Give me a - EPO or + PNA anyday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 This group needs a Sarah McLachlan commercial after a bad model trend.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: 32/32 NE3-5 still mixed precip but looking much more wintry than rainy. Of course I have to leave to pick up the kid at LGA in a few minutes. So you and @Brasiluvsnowaren’t destined to be future in-laws? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: so much for an “epic pattern” dont wanna hear that shit ever again. it was in trouble from the get go when it kept getting pushed back-even now there's no true arctic air in the pattern... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Not trying to rain (pun intended) on anyone’s parade here but I invite everyone complaining about the lack of snow and brutal cold before the arrival of astrological winter to take a gander at every other climate located between 40-41°N, coastal or inland, and find one (that’s not at a ridiculous elevation) that’s appreciably better for snow. Only Japan really stands out and it’s entirely due to a lake-effect on steroids phenomenon with the Sea of Japan + East Asia being colder, an anomaly. Interior North America is colder with mostly similar snow totals, East Asia is colder but much drier, then there’s California, Iberia, the Mediterranean and western Asia which are generally milder at similar elevations. You’d be hard pressed to find a climate as variable as ours at this latitude in either hemisphere. If the Appalachians weren’t so old and weathered things would look incredibly different (warmer and boring) around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Not trying to rain (pun intended) on anyone’s parade here but I invite everyone complaining about the lack of snow and brutal cold before the arrival of astrological winter to take a gander at every other climate located between 40-41°N, coastal or inland, and find one (that’s not at a ridiculous elevation) that’s appreciably better for snow. Only Japan really stands out and it’s entirely due to a lake-effect on steroids phenomenon with the Sea of Japan + East Asia being colder, an anomaly. Interior North America is colder with mostly similar snow totals, East Asia is colder but much drier, then there’s California, Iberia, the Mediterranean and western Asia which are generally milder at similar elevations. You’d be hard pressed to find a climate as variable as ours at this latitude in either hemisphere. If the Appalachians weren’t so old and weathered things would look incredibly different (warmer and boring) around here.Who do you think you are coming here and laying out facts and logical interpretations of situations of which we have no control over?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Random question but figured this would be a good place to ask does anyone know of any sites where one can bet on the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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