Winter Banter Thread

[North and West]

this has to be one of the worst storm threads I’ve had the misfortune of reading in a long time. 

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[donsutherland1]

Periodic extreme forecast update...

The extreme forecast in question called for March 1-April 15 to have an average temperature of 5° below normal with 20" or more snow in New York City. The forecast always had very little chance of ever verifying.

At present, the temperature would need to average 7.5° below normal from March 14-April 15 (40.0° against the 1991-2020 normals). The last time a year had an average temperature of 40.0° or below from March 14-April 15 was in 1956. 13/16 cases with such temperatures occurred prior to 1900.

Through today, it is likely that NYC's snowfall since March 1st will remain stuck at 0.1". That means an additional 19.9" would be needed through April 15th to verify the forecast. Only a single year in NYC's climate record, which extends back to 1869, had 19.9" or more snow from March 14-April 15: 1956 with 23.7".

In sum, the initially steep hill required for the extreme forecast to verify is growing each day into an ever higher mountain.

 

[STORMANLI]

" No Snow For You, Come Back Next Winter...Maybe"

With apologies to Seinfeld's Soup Nazi

[matt8204]

Safe to declare winter over?  My forecast shows 55 by Thursday, then high's consistently in the upper 40's to low 50's through early April.  I don't see how we get any snowfall of significance from here on in unless we get something real heavy overnight...but even if that happens, it will probably be gone within a few hours of daybreak anyhow.

[BxEngine]

How can it be a 2001 style bust while also saying “this was never going to happen”? For fucks sake stop posting every thought guys, they dont make any more sense in the written word than they do in our brains lol

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Periodic extreme forecast update...

The extreme forecast in question called for March 1-April 15 to have an average temperature of 5° below normal with 20" or more snow in New York City. The forecast always had very little chance of ever verifying.

At present, the temperature would need to average 7.5° below normal from March 14-April 15 (40.0° against the 1991-2020 normals). The last time a year had an average temperature of 40.0° or below from March 14-April 15 was in 1956. 13/16 cases with such temperatures occurred prior to 1900.

Through today, it is likely that NYC's snowfall since March 1st will remain stuck at 0.1". That means an additional 19.9" would be needed through April 15th to verify the forecast. Only a single year in NYC's climate record, which extends back to 1869, had 19.9" or more snow from March 14-April 15: 1956 with 23.7".

In sum, the initially steep hill required for the extreme forecast to verify is growing each day into an ever higher mountain.

 

So you're tellin' me there's a chance!

[North and West]

I like that everyone got to experience/re-live an early 1990s winter this year with fleeting cold and near misses. Now imagine that pre-internet and only the TV Mets to guide you outside of pre-Ice Road Trucker TWC.




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[NorthShoreWx]

The nor'easter thread is making my brain hurt.  Lots of stuff that should never be shared outside of therapy.

[Juliancolton]

Winter 22-23, in a picture:

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

I like that everyone got to experience/re-live an early 1990s winter this year with fleeting cold and near misses. Now imagine that pre-internet and only the TV Mets to guide you outside of pre-Ice Road Trucker TWC.




.

Would probably make us more sane not less with all these links to crap models and hallucinations. You take what the met tells you at 11pm and that’s it! I feel so deprived from when I was a kid and had to rely on what Nick Gregory said the models were doing at 10pm. Was like some drumroll until my hopes growing up on the south shore were dashed 90% of the time. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Would probably make us more sane not less with all these links to crap models and hallucinations. You take what the met tells you at 11pm and that’s it! I feel so deprived from when I was a kid and had to rely on what Nick Gregory said the models were doing at 10pm. Was like some drumroll until my hopes growing up on the south shore were dashed 90% of the time. 

I have fond memories of 1993-94 though even on the south shore.  That was one case where the mets were usually underdone on snowfall amounts.  I remember Mr G did amazingly well with his 10 PM updates on PIX11 because he always said it looked like we were going to get more snow than originally forecast-- AND WE DID!

[North and West]

Would probably make us more sane not less with all these links to crap models and hallucinations. You take what the met tells you at 11pm and that’s it! I feel so deprived from when I was a kid and had to rely on what Nick Gregory said the models were doing at 10pm. Was like some drumroll until my hopes growing up on the south shore were dashed 90% of the time. 

YOU TOOK IT AND YOU LIKED IT.




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[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Periodic extreme forecast update...

The extreme forecast in question called for March 1-April 15 to have an average temperature of 5° below normal with 20" or more snow in New York City. The forecast always had very little chance of ever verifying.

At present, the temperature would need to average 7.5° below normal from March 14-April 15 (40.0° against the 1991-2020 normals). The last time a year had an average temperature of 40.0° or below from March 14-April 15 was in 1956. 13/16 cases with such temperatures occurred prior to 1900.

Through today, it is likely that NYC's snowfall since March 1st will remain stuck at 0.1". That means an additional 19.9" would be needed through April 15th to verify the forecast. Only a single year in NYC's climate record, which extends back to 1869, had 19.9" or more snow from March 14-April 15: 1956 with 23.7".

In sum, the initially steep hill required for the extreme forecast to verify is growing each day into an ever higher mountain.

 

1956 was amazing to get that much snow, they even beat out 1967 (which was colder).  Didn't 1956 have a big snowstorm in April, Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, North and West said:

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for some reason this reminded me of Bohemian Rhapsody (the song)

 

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1956 was amazing to get that much snow, they even beat out 1967 (which was colder).  Didn't 1956 have a big snowstorm in April, Don?

 

March-April Measurable Snowfalls for NYC in 1956:

March 12-13: 1.6"
March 16-17: 6.7"
March 18-19: 11.6"
March 24: 1.2
April 8: 4.2"

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

March-April Measurable Snowfalls for NYC in 1956:

March 12-13: 1.6"
March 16-17: 6.7"
March 18-19: 11.6"
March 24: 1.2
April 8: 4.2"

Very similar to 2018 actually, that also had 4 storms in March and 1 in April I think?

1996 was similar, 3 4"+ snowstorms in March and 1 in April (for JFK)?

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I have fond memories of 1993-94 though even on the south shore.  That was one case where the mets were usually underdone on snowfall amounts.  I remember Mr G did amazingly well with his 10 PM updates on PIX11 because he always said it looked like we were going to get more snow than originally forecast-- AND WE DID!

Absolutely.  Best memories of that winter here (and there are plenty)

- Stuck in traffic in an 8" storm on a Tuesday (1994 so a rarity for anyone under 25 at the time), and on the radio talk about the next 8" storm headed here Friday, which of course it did.

- Snowpacked sidestreets the norm for about a two week stretch

- Ice storms which never flipped to rain

It's almost unfathomable now, especially the snowpacked sidestreets part.

Sorry, ventured down Memory Lane a bit there.

[donsutherland1]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Very similar to 2018 actually, that also had 4 storms in March and 1 in April I think?

1996 was similar, 3 4"+ snowstorms in March and 1 in April (for JFK)?

 

March-April 1996 had 2 4" or above snowstorms at JFK Airport. There was an additional 3" storm.

[GaWx]

On 3/8/2023 at 1:51 PM, GaWx said:

 A big part of the problem here and in other CFS Twitter posts is that the CFS is strongly cold biased, especially over snowcover. And the CFS often has snowcover when it isn't realistic. It has snowcover when it shouldn't because it is cold biased. So, it becomes a vicious cycle.

 Just as an example of this strong CFS cold and snow bias since RDU is one of the cities analyzed, I'll analyze all of the major 0Z 3/8 model runs for hour 132 at RDU (for 12Z on Monday 3/13):

 First of all, RDU NWS has a forecast for RDU Sun night of rain and a low in the lower 40s:

"SUNDAY NIGHT   RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF   RAIN 70 PERCENT."

 The 0Z 3/8 CFS has ~1" of snowcover as of 12Z on 3/13 because it is cold biased and had a high near 36 the day before with wintry precip falling vs a high from the mid 40s to low 50s on the other models with rain/no snowcover on the other models:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=snod-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
 

 Partially as a result of this snowcover, the 0Z 3/8 CFS has RDU at an unrealistically cold 32 as of 12Z on 3/13:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

 Now, I'll compare the CFS' 32 with the 0Z 3/8 runs of the other major models and the already mentioned NWS for 12Z on 3/13 at RDU (they all have rain and no snowcover):

Euro 49

UKMET 43

GFS 43

CMC 42

ICON 42

NWS 42

CFS 32

Followup for @donsutherland1 and others:

1. RDU did actually get snow and sleet yesterday, but there was only a trace vs that CFS run's wintry precip that lead to 1" of snowcover.

2. The actual high yesterday was only 41. So, although the CFS' ~36 did end up too cold, the other models with their mid 40s to low 50s were all too warm with some ~10 too warm.

3. The actual 12Z (8AM EDT) temperature today was 40. So, the CFS' 32 verified 8 too cold. But the Euro's 49 was 9 too warm. The other 4 along with the NWS were also too warm but only by 2-3.

4. In summary the CFS verified too snowy and cold as expected, but the others were too warm.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

March-April 1996 had 2 4" or above snowstorms at JFK Airport. There was an additional 3" storm.

Don, was there a 7 inch snowstorm in the middle of March that melted on the same day, I remember something like that.  But that 7 inch report was from Massapequa.  The sun came out as soon as the snow ended and it warmed up quickly.  It was an amazing day, we had mid winter and late spring on the same day lol.

 

[forkyfork]

every storm has the same nam run

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

every storm has the same nam run

 

You never really spoke about this storm. Deep down I knew we had nothing at the coast 

[forkyfork]

[Juliancolton]

Noise canceling earbuds are firmly inserted so I don't have to listen to all of this wasted precip

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

This is the run that gave NYC 36 inches lol

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This is the run that gave NYC 36 inches lol

It was still a good storm though we had a foot of snow here

[Rjay]

23 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

You never really spoke about this storm. Deep down I knew we had nothing at the coast 

He actually had lots to say 

[rclab]

Good morning all. It’s been a difficult cold season for frosty. Now with snowflakes falling on a wet postage stamp he can sense the siren call of soon to bloom daffodils. Stay well all, as always …

[nycwinter]

storm is a complete bust for rain in the nyc area  a few days ago 1.50 inches was predicted

[Snowshack]

Gore webcam looks better than I can remember ... they're reporting 24" from this storm so far and 43" for first two weeks of March.   Great stretch.