Winter Banter Thread

[NorthShoreWx]

Season isn't done yet for NYC. Central Park will get 0.6" more before it's over.  Stop sulking.

[North and West]

Watching the 240 hr GFS this winter

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[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I had a Daily News paper route that year, and I remember the cold.

[Intensewind002]

A small plane crashed like a block away from where I live https://longisland.news12.com/sources-1-dead-after-small-plane-crashes-in-lindenhurst

[donsutherland1]

In terms of the extreme forecast made for NYC to average 5° below normal for March 1-April 15, the needed anomaly for the remainder of the period has increased to 6.0° below normal.

[WestBabylonWeather]

5 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

A small plane crashed like a block away from where I live https://longisland.news12.com/sources-1-dead-after-small-plane-crashes-in-lindenhurst

I heard it while I was trying to nap. There was also a murder two doors down. What’s 3 gonna be 

[tdp146]

19 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I heard it while I was trying to nap. There was also a murder two doors down. What’s 3 gonna be 

March 2001 

[Dark Star]

I personally cancelled winter as "over" sometime in mid February, even though I felt it was over at the end of January.  Yes, March looks like it will be close to average, temperature-wise, but with this coming weekend' storm looking like another wet one, I have no faith in the "2nd" low threat.  

[Cfa]

 

I certainly hope no one’s still waiting for winter.

[Nibor]

12 minutes ago, Cfa said:

 

I certainly hope no one’s still waiting for winter.

Reaching for these long range snowstorms like…

[SI Mailman]

The story of Cyclone Freddy in the Indian Ocean has been impressive.  We are entering Week 5 of this record breaking storm.  Formed Feb 6 off the coast of Indonesia, crossed the entire Indian Ocean, hit Madagascar and then Mozambique, then moved back over the water between Madagascar and Mozambique and going to hit Mozambique a second time this weekend.

 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2023-03-06-tropical-cyclone-freddy-mozambique-madagascar-record

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, SI Mailman said:

The story of Cyclone Freddy in the Indian Ocean has been impressive.  We are entering Week 5 of this record breaking storm.  Formed Feb 6 off the coast of Indonesia, crossed the entire Indian Ocean, hit Madagascar and then Mozambique, then moved back over the water between Madagascar and Mozambique and going to hit Mozambique a second time this weekend.

 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2023-03-06-tropical-cyclone-freddy-mozambique-madagascar-record

what's causing it to loop around?

[donsutherland1]

The below CFSv2 map was posted on Twitter this morning. No commentary about the nature of modeled depiction was included. Thus, it was implied that a month-long period of historic cold for the timeframe is forthcoming.

The magnitude of cold shown above has virtually no chance at verifying. Minimal due diligence would have required that one check out the solution to see if it's reasonable before posting it.

As an example, I will use Washington, DC and Raleigh.

For Washington, DC, the posted map assumes that the March 8-April 7 period would average about 12 degrees below normal. The normal 1991-2020 figure is 49.6°. The map implies a 37.6° average temperature. Washington, DC has never seen such a cold March 8-April 7 period. It has seen just four cases with a mean temperature below 40°:

1885: 38.1°
1887: 39.9°
1896: 39.0°
1906: 39.8°

The 1881-1910 normal value for that period was 45.0°. That was more than 4.5° colder than today's normal value. The coldest value over the last 100 years occurred in 1960 with a mean temperature of 41.6°, which is 4° above the implied number on the map.

For Raleigh, the map is even more unrealistic. The normal 1991-2020 value is 52.8°. The map implies an anomaly of 14° below normal (38.8° mean temperature). Raleigh's coldest such period was 44.4° in 1915. That's not even remotely in the "ballpark" of the idea shown on the map.

All said, the map should not have been posted. It is highly unrealistic. It serves no useful purpose. Given that many Social Media users are unfamiliar with the models, maps, and their limitations, any post of the map should have been accompanied by appropriate disclosure that the cold shown is overdone or some other notice to alert readers to the unrealistic nature of the map.

Such maps, exaggerated claims, repeated calls for extremes, among other things, create a perception that meteorologists aren't very good at forecasting--they are "guessing" and little more. In fact, that perception could not be more wrong. Meteorologists are very good. The problem is that skillful forecasts and insightful discussions are drowned out by the noise of unrealistic ideas on Social Media.

Perhaps, when deciding what to post, one should keep in mind the AMS's mission statement for guidance, whether one is a professional or not:

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society.

Specifically, the posts should be intended for the "benefit of society." Informing society about what to expect, alerting society to emergent risks, and explaining potential impacts all benefit society. Pushing unrealistic solutions without appropriate qualifying language does not.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The below CFSv2 map was posted on Twitter this morning. No commentary about the nature of modeled depiction was included. Thus, it was implied that a month-long period of historic cold for the timeframe is forthcoming.

The magnitude of cold shown above has virtually no chance at verifying. Minimal due diligence would have required that one check out the solution to see if it's reasonable before posting it.

As an example, I will use Washington, DC and Raleigh.

For Washington, DC, the posted map assumes that the March 8-April 7 period would average about 12 degrees below normal. The normal 1991-2020 figure is 49.6°. The map implies a 37.6° average temperature. Washington, DC has never seen such a cold March 8-April 7 period. It has seen just four cases with a mean temperature below 40°:

1885: 38.1°
1887: 39.9°
1896: 39.0°
1906: 39.8°

The 1881-1910 normal value for that period was 45.0°. That was more than 4.5° colder than today's normal value. The coldest value over the last 100 years occurred in 1960 with a mean temperature of 41.6°, which is 4° above the implied number on the map.

For Raleigh, the map is even more unrealistic. The normal 1991-2020 value is 52.8°. The map implies an anomaly of 14° below normal (38.8° mean temperature). Raleigh's coldest such period was 44.4° in 1915. That's not even remotely in the "ballpark" of the idea shown on the map.

All said, the map should not have been posted. It is highly unrealistic. It serves no useful purpose. Given that many Social Media users are unfamiliar with the models, maps, and their limitations, any post of the map should have been accompanied by appropriate disclosure that the cold shown is overdone or some other notice to alert readers to the unrealistic nature of the map.

Such maps, exaggerated claims, repeated calls for extremes, among other things, create a perception that meteorologists aren't very good at forecasting--they are "guessing" and little more. In fact, that perception could not be more wrong. Meteorologists are very good. The problem is that skillful forecasts and insightful discussions are drowned out by the noise of unrealistic ideas on Social Media.

Perhaps, when deciding what to post, one should keep in mind the AMS's mission statement for guidance, whether one is a professional or not:

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society.

Specifically, the posts should be intended for the "benefit of society." Informing society about what to expect, alerting society to emergent risks, and explaining potential impacts all benefit society. Pushing unrealistic solutions without appropriate qualifying language does not.

 A big part of the problem here and in other CFS Twitter posts is that the CFS is strongly cold biased, especially over snowcover. And the CFS often has snowcover when it isn't realistic. It has snowcover when it shouldn't because it is cold biased. So, it becomes a vicious cycle.

 Just as an example of this strong CFS cold and snow bias since RDU is one of the cities analyzed, I'll analyze all of the major 0Z 3/8 model runs for hour 132 at RDU (for 12Z on Monday 3/13):

 First of all, RDU NWS has a forecast for RDU Sun night of rain and a low in the lower 40s:

"SUNDAY NIGHT   RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF   RAIN 70 PERCENT."

 The 0Z 3/8 CFS has ~1" of snowcover as of 12Z on 3/13 because it is cold biased and had a high near 36 the day before with wintry precip falling vs a high from the mid 40s to low 50s on the other models with rain/no snowcover on the other models:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=snod-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
 

 Partially as a result of this snowcover, the 0Z 3/8 CFS has RDU at an unrealistically cold 32 as of 12Z on 3/13:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023030800&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

 Now, I'll compare the CFS' 32 with the 0Z 3/8 runs of the other major models and the already mentioned NWS for 12Z on 3/13 at RDU (they all have rain and no snowcover):

Euro 49

UKMET 43

GFS 43

CMC 42

ICON 42

NWS 42

CFS 32

[SRRTA22]

If we end this period with less than 6" of snow, I'm blocking brooklynwx and I'm sending metsfan a bottle of Johnnie Walker double black 

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

If we end this period with less than 6" of snow, I'm blocking brooklynwx and I'm sending metsfan a bottle of Johnnie Walker double black 

It's favorable.  There's just no true arctic air anywhere.  Gotta rely on dynamics and that's a tough game to play. 

[Nibor]

Earthlight

[MJO812]

Just end this awful winter

 

Another period this month where people got suckered into a favorable pattern and nothing to show.

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Just end this awful winter

 

Another period this month where people got suckered into a favorable pattern and nothing to show.

I'm borrowing heavily from a well known quote here:

Snowless decades create patient snowlovers
Patient snowlovers are rewarded with snowy decades
Snowy decades create impatient snowlovers
Impatient snowlovers are punished with snowless decades

[North and West]

I'm borrowing heavily from a well known quote here:
Snowless decades create patient snowlovers
Patient snowlovers are rewarded with snowy decades
Snowy decades create impatient snowlovers
Impatient snowlovers are punished with snowless decades

.

[BxEngine]

Cpk is in Virginia. Nyc is central park.

 

thanks for coming to my ted talk. 

[Nibor]

17 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Cpk is in Virginia. Nyc is central park.

 

thanks for coming to my ted talk. 

 

aight whatever dad

[IrishRob17]

30 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Cpk is in Virginia. Nyc is central park.

 

thanks for coming to my ted talk. 

I wonder what people do with all the extra time they gain in their life by not spelling out an entire word.

[Rjay]

33 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Cpk is in Virginia. Nyc is central park.

 

thanks for coming to my ted talk. 

I let that go years ago lol. 

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I let that go years ago lol. 

Well that’s why you’re a slacker. 

[BxEngine]

34 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I let that go years ago lol. 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

I wonder what people do with all the extra time they gain in their life by not spelling out an entire word.

IDK 

[North and West]

Wild stuff if confirmed.





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[Dark Star]

[donsutherland1]

On Twitter, there has been a proliferation of 10:1 snow maps. During March, ratios tend to be lower than 10:1.

As a very rough approximation, below is some data for Philadelphia's March snowfalls (precipitation of 0.10" or above) from 1950-2022 based on daily mean temperature. The kind of hourly data needed for a finer analysis is not available. Smaller precipitation amounts e.g., 0.01", can lead to skewed outcomes.