Winter Banter Thread

[ag3]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

amazing what a week can do-we went from big cold/snows/epic pattern to nothing in 6-7 days.   

 

EPS have been pathetic the last 3+ years, for winter, but people have short memories and still believe they are the go to long range tool. No they are not. They are erratic and they are extremely bad with the pac. GEFS are much better, IMO, for the overall long range pattern.

 

 

[North and West]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

amazing what a week can do-we went from big cold/snows/epic pattern to nothing in 6-7 days.   

Amateur question... is this because the models are not good, or that they're too good so that they ingest everything and nearly any possible pattern can be shown? And with all of this happening, wouldn't logic deduce that they'll change again in a week (to what, who knows)?

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Amateur question... is this because the models are not good, or that they're too good so that they ingest everything and nearly any possible pattern can be shown? And with all of this happening, wouldn't logic deduce that they'll change again in a week (to what, who knows)?

Predicting the future is hard. Even for super computers. 

[North and West]

Predicting the future is hard. Even for super computers. 

.

[Dan76]

 

[donsutherland1]

I tried to resolve the perennial question, “How much in Philly?” I think I need a smaller ruler.;)

[LibertyBell]

I can't believe no one mentioned or even talked about (not even in the media) the very rare perihelion Mars occultation by the Moon last night!  I don't think it was visible from NY but it would have been a close call.  It was cloudy when it happened anyway but I didn't even know about it until this morning!

 

Next one is in Jan 2025 and that's going to be an aphelion occultation so Mars won't be as bright.

https://www.newsweek.com/occultation-mars-eclipse-full-moon-1765312

 

Mars is about to pass behind a full cold moon in an occultation Wednesday night that can be seen across a large portion of North America and Europe.

Mars' occultation is essentially an eclipse of the red planet, with the moon passing directly between the Earth and Mars. The planet will be seen starting to dip behind the moon Wednesday at around 10:30 p.m. ET, reappearing about an hour later. Even outside of the occultation viewing area, stargazers will be able to see Mars passing close by the full moon in what's known as an "appulse," near the eastern horizon, as seen from North America.

This event marks the coincidence of three rare astronomical events: a full cold moon (December's full moon), the occultation of Mars and Mars' "opposition."

https://in-the-sky.org/news.php?id=20221208_16_100

The Moon will pass in front of Mars, creating a lunar occultation visible from parts of the Americas, Europe and Northern Africa.

Lunar occultations are only ever visible from a small fraction of the Earth's surface. Since the Moon is much closer to the Earth than other celestial objects, its exact position in the sky differs depending on your exact location on Earth due to its large parallax. The position of the Moon as seen from two points on opposite sides of the Earth varies by up to two degrees, or four times the diameter of the full moon.

This means that if the Moon is aligned to pass in front of a particular object for an observer on one side of the Earth, it will appear up to two degrees away from that object on the other side of the Earth.

[Cfa]

2 mosquitoes.

[forkyfork]

how are the pna doomers feeling today?

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how are the pna doomers feeling today?

Doomed.

[forkyfork]

@Allsnow bailed and went to the other board

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

@Allsnow bailed and went to the other board

Haha. I’m holding you responsible if it doesn’t snow in my backyard 

[MJO812]

Paging Snowman19

[LibertyBell]

On 12/8/2022 at 12:21 PM, LibertyBell said:

I can't believe no one mentioned or even talked about (not even in the media) the very rare perihelion Mars occultation by the Moon last night!  I don't think it was visible from NY but it would have been a close call.  It was cloudy when it happened anyway but I didn't even know about it until this morning!

 

Next one is in Jan 2025 and that's going to be an aphelion occultation so Mars won't be as bright.

https://www.newsweek.com/occultation-mars-eclipse-full-moon-1765312

 

Mars is about to pass behind a full cold moon in an occultation Wednesday night that can be seen across a large portion of North America and Europe.

Mars' occultation is essentially an eclipse of the red planet, with the moon passing directly between the Earth and Mars. The planet will be seen starting to dip behind the moon Wednesday at around 10:30 p.m. ET, reappearing about an hour later. Even outside of the occultation viewing area, stargazers will be able to see Mars passing close by the full moon in what's known as an "appulse," near the eastern horizon, as seen from North America.

This event marks the coincidence of three rare astronomical events: a full cold moon (December's full moon), the occultation of Mars and Mars' "opposition."

https://in-the-sky.org/news.php?id=20221208_16_100

The Moon will pass in front of Mars, creating a lunar occultation visible from parts of the Americas, Europe and Northern Africa.

Lunar occultations are only ever visible from a small fraction of the Earth's surface. Since the Moon is much closer to the Earth than other celestial objects, its exact position in the sky differs depending on your exact location on Earth due to its large parallax. The position of the Moon as seen from two points on opposite sides of the Earth varies by up to two degrees, or four times the diameter of the full moon.

This means that if the Moon is aligned to pass in front of a particular object for an observer on one side of the Earth, it will appear up to two degrees away from that object on the other side of the Earth.

This description, even on the outer edge of the eclipse is pretty amazing.

Wish we had gotten to see this.

https://www.space.com/mars-at-opposition-full-moon-dec-07-2022

 

it was closest at 10:56 pm here.

 

Mars was one minute south of the southern edge of the moon

 

For places like Huntsville, Knoxville, Philadelphia and New York, Mars will come to within just 1 arc minute of the moon's limb; they'll almost seem to touch each other. To the naked eye, Mars will look like an amber jewel on the bottom edge of the moon. From Boston the gap between Mars and the moon's limb is even smaller: just 0.6 arc minute, roughly equal to the apparent width of two Mars diameters!

 

Where to see the moon eclipse Mars 

As a bonus, those who are located north and west of a line running roughly from Piedras Negras, Mexico to Louisville, Kentucky to Seabrook, New Hampshire will see the moon occult Mars. Refer to the US map. Those positioned south and east of this line, however, will see the moon miss the planet entirely, barely passing just above it (called an appulse). 

But for an observer fortuitously positioned exactly on, or immediately adjacent to that line — it's actually a narrow path about 21 miles (34 km) wide — the lower limb of the moon will appear to literally graze Mars as it passes by. 

For those fortuitously situated along the northern edge of the path, the planet's dazzling topaz disk may appear to disappear completely, then reappear intermittently in lunar valleys. In contrast, along the southern edge of the path, Mars' northern edge will only briefly touch the limb of the moon.

Among towns and cities located within the path are Morgantown, WV; Scranton, PA; Hudson, NY; Northampton, MA; Lowell, MA and Seabrook, NH. Refer to the Mars occultation graze path maps.

Unlike a star which is a pinpoint of light and would disappear and reappear in an instant, Mars appears as a small disk in telescopes; owing to its relatively large angular size (17.2 arc seconds in diameter), the occultation will occur at a rather "leisurely" pace. So the disappearance of Mars behind the moon's bright limb for most places, will take anywhere from about 40 seconds to almost a minute (or even longer where the moon's limb approaches it at a slant). 

[forkyfork]

where's the best place for italian american food? a trash can

[North and West]

where's the best place for italian american food? a trash can

.

[forkyfork]

also italy hasn't produced a good composer since vivaldi

[etudiant]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

also italy hasn't produced a good composer since vivaldi

You grade tough!

Not Verdi or Rossini? Respighi maybe?

[rclab]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

where's the best place for italian american food? a trash can

Good evening forky. My mom was an excellent Italian and American cook. Considering her Sicilian roots ….. if you had made that comment in her presence, you, in short order would have been the spitting image of your avatar. Be well and stay dry under the bridge. As always….

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

also italy hasn't produced a good composer since vivaldi

Leonardo Da Vinci was enough, he was the GOAT of everything.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

where's the best place for italian american food? a trash can

"italian" american isn't really italian, it's processed crap that deserves to be in the trash

\

[CIK62]

While constantly claiming for weeks we will be 10 BN each upcoming Week, Month, 45-Day Period---the CFS just keeps at it:

Analog forecasting is  not the way to go this season, I guess...................Do they ever update this thing?

[Volcanic Winter]

Not sure how many fans of Nordic melodic death metal we have here, but this is my dedicated “kick off the winter” and “it’s gonna snow” album. Given our prognosis for a descent into colder departures going forward I figured today is an appropriate day to put it on during my long commute to and from work. 

It’s heavy, but effectively sets the mood:

Insomnium - Winter’s Gate

 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

While constantly claiming for weeks we will be 10 BN each upcoming Week, Month, 45-Day Period---the CFS just keeps at it:

Analog forecasting is  not the way to go this season, I guess...................Do they ever update this thing?

most analogs are from colder times...can't really use much before the year 2000

[Snowlover11]

fuck this “pattern” 

[BxEngine]

19 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It was always after mid December where the best pattern would begin. 

Anything before that was a bonus 

 

32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So far this is the most disappointing blocking pattern I've ever seen. 

Euro & GFS now shove a big trough west after the 16th storm which is not good. 

That's been the theme too with models underestimating the western trough due to the RNA pattern. I wonder if we'll have to wait until 2nd half of winter now when we can get away with a bad pacific. 

Please for the love of goddddd

[North and West]

Not sure how many fans of Nordic melodic death metal we have here, but this is my dedicated “kick off the winter” and “it’s gonna snow” album. Given our prognosis for a descent into colder departures going forward I figured today is an appropriate day to put it on during my long commute to and from work. 
It’s heavy, but effectively sets the mood:
Insomnium - Winter’s Gate
 

I prefer Greg Lake’s I Believe in Father Christmas this time of year, especially from following these boards since 2005 or so. It sums up each and every December thread until proven otherwise:


They said there'll be snow at Christmas
They said there'll be peace on Earth
But instead it just kept on raining

They said there'll be snow at Christmas
They said there'll be peace on Earth
Hallelujah Noel be it Heaven or Hell
The Christmas we get we deserve.


.

[forkyfork]

i gaslit myself into thinking people here can read weather maps

[North and West]

i gaslit myself into thinking people here can read weather maps

.

[Volcanic Winter]

15 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i gaslit myself into thinking people here can read weather maps

I can read snow maps. The bigger the number the more excited the weenie. Right?