Winter Banter Thread

[Volcanic Winter]

21 hours ago, Dark Star said:

If there is a major volcanic event in the northern hemisphere, what is the general lag time to affect the weather globally (or is this a ridiculous question)?

The sulphur infiltrates the stratosphere and spreads into the stratospheric aerosol veil fairly quickly. I can link you some information on this, will edit this comment. It takes a couple years for it to precipitate out and thus end the effect, but the impact can be IIRC within a few months. 
 

It really takes a large eruption though. HTHH was just about the right size but was very gas poor for several reasons (except water vapor which is different of course). 
 

Edit: Anyone interested, read these articles and pay attention to the included charts. Explains the process rather well. 
 

https://www.volcanocafe.org/ruminarian-v-get-your-coffee-youre-gonna-need-it-repost/

[Volcanic Winter]

53 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Supposedly another volcano in Russia is a possibility as well.  I think it takes about 6-12 months before the effects on the weather (if any) begin to take place?

Shiveluch has had several large eruptions in recent history, but I’m not sure it’s currently at risk of anything massive enough right now to have a major climate impact. I’m going to dive deeper into the unrest that’s prompting the influx of articles about it, because nothing a short while ago was really pointing to it having anything more than a continuation of normal activity levels. I could be wrong but will investigate further.
 

With that said, a low end VEI 5 like St Helens or Bezymianny won’t cut it. You need a particularly gassy El Chichón style VEI 5 which doesn’t encompass every volcano that erupts that large, or more probably a  ‘near VEI 6’ (8-9km^3 erupted volume)  to Pinatubo level and above. Pinatubo was even relatively small for the strength of its volcanic cooling episode, but it was exceptionally gas laden and deposited something like 20MT of sulfur into the stratosphere (El Chichón was much smaller and released 7MT). Pinatubo also had a boost from another large mid level VEI 5 eruption at Cerro Hudson in 1991.

It’s part size of the blast, part composition of the magma and expelled gasses. In general the bigger the event the more likely it is to impact the climate. 
 

Hunga Tonga only did about 1/40th the sulphur release of Pinatubo, and it was nearly as large (some publications actually have it as larger, interestingly enough). 
 

With respect to HTHH I’m much more interested in how the combined loading of a decent shot of volcanic ash and a large injection of water vapor influence the upper level dynamics. That article speaking about the intense stratospheric cooling observed in the SH after HTHH was very interesting. It showed correlative evidence that such cooling events in the SH (however not from volcanic events in other cases, might be a big point here) correlated to stratospheric warming in the NH and -NAO states. 
 

HTHH was a very interesting event and I’m curious to read some retrospective climatological analyses in a few years. It may have a hand in some things going on right now, or maybe not. 
 

Back to Kamchatka, you really need something incredibly massive to have a major volcanic winter. Something like the Kurile Lake eruption:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurile_Lake

 

This was similar to Tambora in 1815 (though likely a bit larger) which caused the major anomaly in 1816. Not to mention, the 1810’s were one of the coldest decades ever, partly influenced by another massive VEI 6+ eruption of unknown origin in 1808/9. And yes, two eruptions of that magnitude only a few short years apart is exceedingly improbable; but the ice cores don’t lie!

[Volcanic Winter]

So it looks like Shiveluch is extruding a lava dome (think of it as a swelling bulge of hot but cooling / crusting magma that plugs up the crater), which as they swell are prone to collapse and explosive / pyroclastic events. 
 

This is similar to La Soufriere in 2020-2021 that extruded a massive lava dome that ultimately triggered a moderately large sub plinian to plinian eruption. VEI 4, a decent and visually spectacular event no doubt, but too small for climate impacts. 
 

Shiveluch just had a partial dome collapse that sent a pyroclastic flow 10KM away from the edifice. Pretty impressive but not directed upward to the stratosphere. I would imagine intermittent sub plinian blasts and dome collapse pyroclastic flows (lateral not skyward) would be the main threat here. But if the dome grows massive or something more destabilizes in the volcano, for sure we could get a bigger event.

 

[TWCCraig]

A sad day for what is a great website for GOES satellite data. Doesn't affect our area but it was cool being able to see the entire western hemisphere (both north & south). Bandwidth issues... any other great satellite websites out there?

[Rjay]

The gfs op will make some weenie's head explode tonight.  

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

The gfs op will make some weenie's head explode tonight.  

in anger or delight?

[North and West]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/heat-temperature-heating-thermostat-new-england-11669650535

Please don’t do this. I don’t put my heat up over 65°, but it’s far more costly to deal with broken appliances and burst pipes in your house.


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[donsutherland1]

On 12/2/2022 at 3:47 AM, LibertyBell said:

in anger or delight?

Tune in starting at 4:30 pm to find out.

[wilsonvoid1]

Hi Longtime lurker looking for the next big nor'easter? You guys obviously are experts here, are we thinking this month could get interesting mid month?

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

Hi Longtime lurker looking for the next big nor'easter? You guys obviously are experts here, are we thinking this month could get interesting mid month?

I'd lean toward rainstorms near the coast for at least the next 10-14 days

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, North and West said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/heat-temperature-heating-thermostat-new-england-11669650535

Please don’t do this. I don’t put my heat up over 65°, but it’s far more costly to deal with broken appliances and burst pipes in your house.


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paywalled but if they're talking about using heating appliances for heat, I used to do that because I didn't want to turn my heat on before November 1st.  Then  I got a space heater for my bedroom so it's all good.

 

[North and West]

paywalled but if they're talking about using heating appliances for heat, I used to do that because I didn't want to turn my heat on before November 1st.  Then  I got a space heater for my bedroom so it's all good.
 

This guy. 36° in his house.






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[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, North and West said:

This guy. 36° in his house.






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Thats horrible!  I'm talking more along the lines of when the temperature gets below 50 the heat MUST go on.

I'm very warm blooded, I need the heat to be somewhere between 75-80.

 

[North and West]

Thats horrible!  I'm talking more along the lines of when the temperature gets below 50 the heat MUST go on.
I'm very warm blooded, I need the heat to be somewhere between 75-80.
 

I’m definitely of the opinion of life’s too short to live like that (being in your own home at 36°).

I get it - things are expensive and inflation has been absolutely abysmal (check my grocery bill) - but to live like that? Geez.


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[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, North and West said:

I’m definitely of the opinion of life’s too short to live like that (being in your own home at 36°).

I get it - things are expensive and inflation has been absolutely abysmal (check my grocery bill) - but to live like that? Geez.


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I think he does it for egotistical reasons.  You can tell by his smile lol.

 

[rclab]

38 minutes ago, North and West said:

This guy. 36° in his house.






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Good evening N&W. Does Mr Chevalier live alone? My lost love would have been very understanding as she threw my bedding out onto the postage stamp and raised the thermostat. Stay warm, as always

[Volcanic Winter]

58 minutes ago, North and West said:

I’m definitely of the opinion of life’s too short to live like that (being in your own home at 36°).

I get it - things are expensive and inflation has been absolutely abysmal (check my grocery bill) - but to live like that? Geez.


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Life is most definitely too short. While frugality has its place, I think enjoying some basics (like yaknow, heat) with your hard earned money is pretty reasonable. 
 

Mine’s on usually around 45. Thermostat usually in the mid 60’s until January ish, but our bedroom usually runs below thermostat temp. We have a nice down blanket in bed and snuggling for warmth is more fun anyway. 

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

This guy. 36° in his house.






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At least he doesn't have to worry about the fridge shitting  the bed.

[BlizzLuv]

Geez my "goal' is to keep the heat off until Halloween and the A/C off until Memorial Day. My wife usually derails the Halloween goal but we get close. I usually sabotage the Memorial Day goal myself. The older I get, the less tolerant I am of the outer boundaries - inside and outside. Though, I still enjoy snow and cold now through the end of January.

[Volcanic Winter]

Spectacular footage of a co-ignimbrite plume at Semeru volcano today, after a relatively large eruptive event:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jNKG4AnzPY

Now if we could get one that’s about 50x larger and up another 8-10km into the atmosphere (this topped out at 15km), we may have ourselves a winter yet boys! 

[Nibor]

Is Tony back?

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

Is Tony back?

Prob

[BxEngine]

Love the Metfan hate when the pessimists disappear or ignore their own wrong predictions every time. getting angry at your mirror image is kinda hysterical. Some of you should try cbd oil or something.

[Dark Star]

4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Love the Metfan hate when the pessimists disappear or ignore their own wrong predictions every time. getting angry at your mirror image is kinda hysterical. Some of you should try cbd oil or something.

CBD don't do nuttin'

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Love the Metfan hate when the pessimists disappear or ignore their own wrong predictions every time. getting angry at your mirror image is kinda hysterical. Some of you should try cbd oil or something.

That’s MJO right? Nah honestly his enthusiasm is keeping my positive, hopeful vibe in place and amplified. Had to vent some general disappointment but I’m ready to rock the end of this month.

I want to be outside in my boxers making snow angels on my front lawn by Xmas. Edit: And I will accept nothing less. No pressure, just gimme some damn snow. 

[North and West]

I like that people seeing two completely opposite things from the same map. (Editor’s note: I don’t know what those maps mean other than pretty colors. I was told there would be no math.)


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[Nibor]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

I like that people seeing two completely opposite things from the same map. (Editor’s note: I don’t know what those maps mean other than pretty colors. I was told there would be no math.)


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[North and West]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/ClUVsa_jhl3/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=


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[Volcanic Winter]

3 hours ago, Nibor said:

I see a glass half full of vodka. 

[Brian5671]

amazing what a week can do-we went from big cold/snows/epic pattern to nothing in 6-7 days.