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Winter Banter Thread


Rjay
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  On 3/9/2023 at 10:03 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Snow:Rain Ratios for New York City for March (1950-2022):

image.png.fc25a96760e96ae1621d200654ee8a3e.png

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This is excellent Don, but wouldn't this apply to the entire winter?

I made the following chart

37 or above-- doesn't accumulate

33-36  5:1

30-33 10:1

28-30 12:1

25-33 15:1

20-25 20:1

15-20 25:1

under 15 40:1

Only the January 2004 event fulfilled the highest snow ratio category.

 

 

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  On 3/9/2023 at 10:08 PM, LibertyBell said:

This is excellent Don, but wouldn't this apply to the entire winter?

I made the following chart

37 or above-- doesn't accumulate

33-36  5:1

30-33 10:1

28-30 12:1

25-33 15:1

20-25 20:1

15-20 25:1

under 15 40:1

Only the January 2004 event fulfilled the highest snow ratio category.

 

 

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No. This approximation doesn’t consider conditions in the snow growth zone. Winter snow growth is usually better resulting in higher ratios.

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  On 3/9/2023 at 10:11 PM, donsutherland1 said:

No. This approximation doesn’t consider conditions in the snow growth zone. Winter snow growth is usually better resulting in higher ratios.

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Yes and also higher winds can result in lower ratios.  This is just a handy way of using surface temps to try and predict snowfall amounts lol.

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  On 3/9/2023 at 10:14 PM, LibertyBell said:

Yes and also higher winds can result in lower ratios.  This is just a handy way of using surface temps to try and predict snowfall amounts lol.

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When it comes to each storm, using the soundings is far better. My point was to illustrate that in March, one should be cautious about using 10:1 maps.

To illustrate my point about winters and somewhat higher ratios, for January, 10:1 or above ratios for 32° or below temperatures in NYC occurred 46% of the time and 12:1 or above ratios occurred 25% of the time. 15:1 or above ratios occurred 13.5% of the time, just slightly below the frequency of 12:1 ratios for March.

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i am sick of this winter! i'm literally done tracking for this storm too, it just doesn't want to produce i'm done. Good luck to eastern Long Island and New England this storm looks to underperform for most in my opinion but I hope i'm wrong but i'm done


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  On 2/28/2023 at 3:16 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Periodic update on the extreme forecast for NYC for 3/1-4/15: 5° below normal; 20" snow.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58486-winter-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=6823796

Based on the latest guidance, the first 10 days of March will average around 1° below normal. For the overall 3/1-5/15 period to average 5° below normal, the remainder of the period would need to average 6.1° below normal. The 1991-2020 normal temperature for 3/11-4/15 is 46.9°. That means the period would need to have a mean temperature of 40.8° or below for the extreme forecast to verify.  The last time that happened was in 1956.

Future updates will be based on actual data.

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Don,

 With NYC at +2 for 3/1-11, it will be an even bigger challenge for JB to get his -5 for 3/1-4/15. The latest forecasts seem to suggest that NYC may cool off enough to allow 3/1-20 to almost get back down to right at the 1991-2020 normal. But even if so, that would still require -9 for 3/21-4/15. The 3/21-4/15 cold in both 1956 and 1940 would get him close (to a -4).

 The last time it almost got to -9 for 3/21-4/15 was right at the turn of the century, the 20th century! That 1900 cold would be just cold enough for him to get his -5 with rounding. The last one to get him -5 without rounding was 1888.

 So, his chances continue to drop.

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  On 3/12/2023 at 6:23 PM, GaWx said:

Don,

 With NYC at +2 for 3/1-11, it will be an even bigger challenge for JB to get his -5 for 3/1-4/15. The latest forecasts seem to suggest that NYC may cool off enough to allow 3/1-20 to almost get back down to right at the 1991-2020 normal. But even if so, that would still require -9 for 3/21-4/15. The 3/21-4/15 cold in both 1956 and 1940 would get him close (to a -4).

 The last time it almost got to -9 for 3/21-4/15 was right at the turn of the century, the 20th century! That 1900 cold would be just cold enough for him to get his -5 with rounding. The last one to get him -5 without rounding was 1888.

 So, his chances continue to drop.

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at this rate March may even not finish below normal.

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