Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Saying the I-95 corridor is going to go -5 for temps and NYC is going to get 20 inches of snow from 3/1 to 4/15 is predicting an epic, historic pattern. He’s a fool. No one takes him seriously anymore. It’s satire at this point He's banking on a March 2018 outcome with the SSWE and the MJO going to 8-1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: An improvement? Sure. That wouldn’t take much after this disaster. But -5 for temps and 20 inches of snow in NYC between March 1st and April 15th? That’s laughably delusional. Wishcasting at its best Even March 2018 was only -2 to -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: I wonder how many hundreds of miles you'd have to go to actually see any snow NW Massachusetts maybe so about 90 miles north of Danbury. Sad. I'm about 20 miles SE of Danbury and we have not had a plowable event in over a year now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: He's banking on a March 2018 outcome with the SSWE and the MJO going to 8-1-2 He's a full on crackpot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 He's banking on a March 2018 outcome with the SSWE and the MJO going to 8-1-2Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 really hope we just salvage this dumpster fire with one decent event or we wrap it up, get some HOT weather mid spring and just bank on a good winter next year... i cant imagine this happening again next year. also miss me with that wet cold spring type crap that'd be the cherry on top of this horrendous winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: He claimed that others were wrong in claiming the earthquake was caused by global warming. I've seen no such claims “This imaginary thing I have concocted in my own mind is ridiculous and I will not stand for it!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NW Massachusetts maybe so about 90 miles north of Danbury. Sad. I'm about 20 miles SE of Danbury and we have not had a plowable event in over a year now... There’s decent snow cover in the southern greens above 1,000’. Though even there it’s below normal for this time of year and going fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: If such descriptions are accurate, a spectacular bust is probably the most likely outcome. Such an extreme outcome is extremely unlikely to verify. Keeping in mind low model skill at extended timeframes, none of the long-range guidance (ECWMF weeklies or CFSv2) has anything close to such an outcome. We'll see if the ECMWF weeklies change when they are posted later today. For perspective, the average temperature during March 1-April 15, 1991-2020 in New York City is 45.4°. The last time NYC had a mean temperature at least 5° below that figure was in 1960. That occurred during a colder climate regime (the 1951-1980 average temperature for March 1-April 15 was 43.9°). The last time, NYC saw 20" or more snow during that period occurred in 1956 (also the last year with a -5° anomaly/20" or more snowfall during March 1-April 15). Before that, the last such combination of snow and cold occurred in 1916. Overall, since 1869, New York City has seen just 6 years with such a combination of snowfall and cold (temperature anomaly of 5° or more below normal) during March 1-April 15: 1875, 1888, 1896, 1914, 1916, and 1956. None of those winters saw the kind of warmth the current winter has had. The warmest was 1955-1956 with a mean temperature of 35.5°. None of them featured the exceptionally low snowfall that has occurred though February 12th. 1914 had 2.1" but with a winter mean temperature of 33.9°. 1956 had 5.5" with a winter mean temperature of 35.5°. The figures through February 12, 2023 are 0.4" and 40.5° respectively. All said, the latest weekly guidance (the CFSv2 stays warm through the March 6-12 period; the last week's ECMWF weeklies brought readings to near normal to close February and start March), the warming that has occurred since the 1950s and 1960s (though JB likely dismisses this factor outright given his stance on climate change despite both the data and science--that creates a large and growing blind spot in his forecasting), and NYC's historic statistics all suggest that there is only a very low probability of such an outcome. Finally, why might he issue such an extreme forecast that appears to have very little probability of verifying? It may well have to do with the fact that he has not fared well this winter. His winter forecasts have essentially burned up in the unrelenting torches of non-winter 2022-2023. He had called for a severely cold and snowy winter in Europe, adding political commentary that Europe would face major energy shortages driven by its energy policies. He also called for the "hounds of winter" to "howl" during January 10-30 (with posted maps of past Arctic outbreaks), invoked the March 1993/January 1996 storms in December and January 1996/2016 storms in January as "analogs." Against this backdrop, his described forecast seems to be one last desperate swing for the proverbial fences. It is sad how far he has fallen. His forecasts have been increasingly and adversely impacted by his deepening spiral into climate change denial, political considerations, and even conspiracy theories. Yeah and not to open up a can of worms but the Covid vaxx stuff on twitter was really strange... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: He's banking on a March 2018 outcome with the SSWE and the MJO going to 8-1-2 Stop. This is ridiculous talk haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: really hope we just salvage this dumpster fire with one decent event or we wrap it up, get some HOT weather mid spring and just bank on a good winter next year... i cant imagine this happening again next year. also miss me with that wet cold spring type crap that'd be the cherry on top of this horrendous winter 0 for 2 and a warm Nino December? Worst case scenario, but Im a Mets fan and skiing without jacket on 2/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 I guess this belongs in banter. CNN headline. Flowers and trees blooming up to 3 weeks earlier than normal in the Eastern US 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 minute ago, wdrag said: I guess this belongs in banter. CNN headline. Flowers and trees blooming up to 3 weeks earlier than normal in the Eastern US I was in central NC last Thursday and bugs were on the windshield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, wdrag said: I guess this belongs in banter. CNN headline. Flowers and trees blooming up to 3 weeks earlier than normal in the Eastern US I was just out cleaning up some of the garden and quite a few things are greening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I was just out cleaning up some of the garden and quite a few things are greening up. I did some cleaning up of the garden too today and noticed the same thing. Incredible. It feels like I should be starting the vegetable garden with cool weather vegetables like lettuce and broccoli, but of course we have to wait until late March for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: really hope we just salvage this dumpster fire with one decent event or we wrap it up, get some HOT weather mid spring and just bank on a good winter next year... i cant imagine this happening again next year. also miss me with that wet cold spring type crap that'd be the cherry on top of this horrendous winter Obviously this horrendous winter can't be saved at this point, but yeah I hope we can somehow pull off 1 snow event. Would be horrible to go the entire winter without 1 decent snow event. I'm not very optimistic, but hopefully we can pull something off in early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: I did some cleaning up of the garden too today and noticed the same thing. Incredible. It feels like I should be starting the vegetable garden with cool weather vegetables like lettuce and broccoli, but of course we have to wait until late March for that. I'm thinking some broccoli and cauliflower might have a chance if it goes in now. If it does sprout you can cover it with a deep pile of leaves and maybe a solid cover if it snows and it might just work out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 I'm thinking some broccoli and cauliflower might have a chance if it goes in now. If it does sprout you can cover it with a deep pile of leaves and maybe a solid cover if it snows and it might just work out. The danger is that we’re likely to have another sub-20° night before April 15.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: NW Massachusetts maybe so about 90 miles north of Danbury. Sad. I'm about 20 miles SE of Danbury and we have not had a plowable event in over a year now... That sucks man, sorry to hear that. You live in a very beautiful area, my wife and I have been absolutely loving our trip up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: I'm thinking some broccoli and cauliflower might have a chance if it goes in now. If it does sprout you can cover it with a deep pile of leaves and maybe a solid cover if it snows and it might just work out. Yeah it's certainly possible that it would be ok. Broccoli can take a pretty good freeze. But an extremely hard freeze (like North and West described) can damage it, so to be safe I usually wait until late March to put broccoli plants in. Mid March at the earliest if there are absolutely no signs of a cold shot coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, North and West said: . idk who would dare attack ohio but i trust the military will pay them back dearly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Ohio is the worst state. You can’t convince me otherwise. also: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: Ohio is the worst state. You can’t convince me otherwise. also: Kansas is close 2nd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 the year is 2068, the month, January. the average daily high at central park is 74. metfan has been turned into a cyborg by the NYPD so he could play street chess against 8 at-risk youths simultaneously. he posts that he is excited that the fallout from the Tesla train explosion in Ohio got caught in the jet stream and there's a chance for 1-3 inches of ash over Thursday night into Friday. forky complains in banter that the quality of the government's bug jerky rations has been dropping under President Kendall Jenner. rjay still has the fallout guy ass profile picture. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 55 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: the year is 2068, the month, January. the average daily high at central park is 74. metfan has been turned into a cyborg by the NYPD so he could play street chess against 8 at-risk youths simultaneously. he posts that he is excited that the fallout from the Tesla train explosion in Ohio got caught in the jet stream and there's a chance for 1-3 inches of ash over Thursday night into Friday. forky complains in banter that the quality of the government's bug jerky rations has been dropping under President Kendall Jenner. rjay still has the fallout guy ass profile picture. A average high is actually 67 in January because it’s a water temp as the park is under water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: A average high is actually 67 in January because it’s a water temp as the park is under water. i just assumed based on how we do things in this country that most of the coastal cities are Nawlins-style flood bowls filled with pumps and surrounded by levies 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: the year is 2068, the month, January. the average daily high at central park is 74. metfan has been turned into a cyborg by the NYPD so he could play street chess against 8 at-risk youths simultaneously. he posts that he is excited that the fallout from the Tesla train explosion in Ohio got caught in the jet stream and there's a chance for 1-3 inches of ash over Thursday night into Friday. forky complains in banter that the quality of the government's bug jerky rations has been dropping under President Kendall Jenner. rjay still has the fallout guy ass profile picture. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 15 hours ago, North and West said: The danger is that we’re likely to have another sub-20° night before April 15. . 13 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah it's certainly possible that it would be ok. Broccoli can take a pretty good freeze. But an extremely hard freeze (like North and West described) can damage it, so to be safe I usually wait until late March to put broccoli plants in. Mid March at the earliest if there are absolutely no signs of a cold shot coming. I just get kinda antsy when it's warm like this. I'm going to try and see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 13 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: the year is 2068, the month, January. the average daily high at central park is 74. metfan has been turned into a cyborg by the NYPD so he could play street chess against 8 at-risk youths simultaneously. he posts that he is excited that the fallout from the Tesla train explosion in Ohio got caught in the jet stream and there's a chance for 1-3 inches of ash over Thursday night into Friday. forky complains in banter that the quality of the government's bug jerky rations has been dropping under President Kendall Jenner. rjay still has the fallout guy ass profile picture. Interesting, Will. It could become a dystopian version of ‘Cheers’. I can see the NNE crew, of that time, lamenting about the negative effect of UHI in Caribou and the rain/snow line being stuck in the Baffin Island vicinity. forky would probably petition the government to substitute feline for bug in the jerky. President Jenner would not be amused at said petition. Rjay would still be looking for payback after BxE hacked his account and put a kilt on his avatar. Thank you Will for an uplifting morning. Stay well and please don’t forget my eulogy when the time comes. Stay the same, as always…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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