Winter Banter Thread

[USCG RS]

11 minutes ago, Newman said:

In a La Nina year with a tendency for SE ridge/western trough no less. The background state has been set for years now, it seems we need to get lucky for a +PNA and -EPO pattern with high lat blocking. It can happen, but is becoming less and less frequent it seems at least. 

So I was pretty young during the 90s, but I remember when 3-6" was called for and Long Island ground to a halt. Perhaps we're heading into these doldrums again? To those who are older/more knowledgeable, are we beginning to repeat these types of patterns? 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

So I was pretty young during the 90s, but I remember when 3-6" was called for and Long Island ground to a halt. Perhaps we're heading into these doldrums again? To those who are older/more knowledgeable, are we beginning to repeat these types of patterns? 

If it's timed right (like during the rush hour) it can happen again.  I remember when that happened and it was in the late 90s and something like 4-5 inches fell in like 2 hours right during the rush hour.  It happened on two occasions and both times it was a disaster in terms of being able to get anywhere.

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, Newman said:

In a La Nina year with a tendency for SE ridge/western trough no less. The background state has been set for years now, it seems we need to get lucky for a +PNA and -EPO pattern with high lat blocking. It can happen, but is becoming less and less frequent it seems at least. 

I'm still optimistic for around 25-28 inches this season, since the lion's share of our snow comes in January and February and winter really begins here around January 20th.

Okay probably the lower range of that scale, maybe more like 20-25 lol.

Still near average.

 

[gravitylover]

39 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

So I was pretty young during the 90s, but I remember when 3-6" was called for and Long Island ground to a halt. Perhaps we're heading into these doldrums again? To those who are older/more knowledgeable, are we beginning to repeat these types of patterns? 

IMO not really. My recollection is we used to see more quick moving clipper type systems riding down the east side of western ridges that brought us 2-6" snowfalls. 

[Stormlover74]

Most winters in the 80s saw 1 or 2 3 to 6" events often back to back and enough to cancel school in the suburbs. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

IMO not really. My recollection is we used to see more quick moving clipper type systems riding down the east side of western ridges that brought us 2-6" snowfalls. 

Why did clippers back then bring 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow and now it's like an inch or two at most and usually not even that?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most winters in the 80s saw 1 or 2 3 to 6" events often back to back and enough to cancel school in the suburbs. 

Plus a lot of cold to keep that icy mess on the sidewalks and side streets for weeks on end.

 

[CIK62]

Anyone have a meteorologic reason why Decembers have warmed by 3.2 since the 1960's, while the month of January has only warmed by 0.4  over the same time period.

Are we gonna get measurable snow before January 29--which I think is the record latest first snow of the season (1973)?     Looks like a shutout till the 10th or later right now.      verify/comments anyone?

[RedSky]

52 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Anyone have a meteorologic reason why Decembers have warmed by 3.2 since the 1960's, while the month of January has only warmed by 0.4  over the same time period.

Are we gonna get measurable snow before January 29--which I think is the record latest first snow of the season (1973)?     Looks like a shutout till the 10th or later right now.      verify/comments anyone?

My slept at a Holiday inn Express last night reason would be warmer ocean's are starting at a higher temperature data point therefore will take longer into the winter months to reach the coolness required to bring seasonable temperatures so milder Oct-Dec makes sense.

 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Why did clippers back then bring 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow and now it's like an inch or two at most and usually not even that?

 

Again, IMO it's because we don't have the significant southward transport of cold Arctic air coming down the east side of western ridges that creates a wider temp spread as it encounters the warm ocean. That cold air was also usually deeper and had some staying power so it kept us colder for longer as opposed to now where the cold is more transient because it's shallower and moving faster with the jet stream because the ridge isn't there. Someone else had noted recently that we don't see that cold stream coming down the Hudson Valley very often anymore either. 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Again, IMO it's because we don't have the significant southward transport of cold Arctic air coming down the east side of western ridges that creates a wider temp spread as it encounters the warm ocean. That cold air was also usually deeper and had some staying power so it kept us colder for longer as opposed to now where the cold is more transient because it's shallower and moving faster with the jet stream because the ridge isn't there. Someone else had noted recently that we don't see that cold stream coming down the Hudson Valley very often anymore either. 

This probably also explains why DC has gotten into a much worse snow drought than we have, they depended on that for their snowfall more than we do (we get most of ours via coastals.)

Combine this with warming oceans also changing the trajectory of arctic airmasses and that's another reason you get the cold being dumped into the west and the central parts of the continent the vast majority of the time first now.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, RedSky said:

My slept at a Holiday inn Express last night reason would be warmer ocean's are starting at a higher temperature data point therefore will take longer into the winter months to reach the coolness required to bring seasonable temperatures so milder Oct-Dec makes sense.

 

So basically an extended fall and shorter winter.

 

[forkyfork]

the loss of a leisure activity for rich people is the least important effect of climate change

[Rtd208]

Enjoy the dud winter its the only winter you got- TWC

[Juliancolton]

Skating is underway on my pond with about 3" of some of the clearest ice I've seen. Hopefully we get a chance to freeze up again after the torch. 

[Snowshack]

10 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the loss of a leisure activity for rich people is the least important effect of climate change

Personal inconvenience may be the only thing that gets some people to care about this.

[Rtd208]

Closed the shades today, boy its dark in here. 

[FPizz]

On 12/26/2022 at 12:29 PM, LibertyBell said:

Why did clippers back then bring 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow and now it's like an inch or two at most and usually not even that?

 

They didn't.  Most brought nothing besides a new shot of cold air. Some brought a dusting to an inch and once in a blue moon a 2 to 4

[FPizz]

13 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Closed the shades today, boy its dark in here. 

Congrats.  How many more times can you say the same thing every day on multiple boards?

[Dark Star]

15 hours ago, Snowshack said:

Personal inconvenience may be the only thing that gets some people to care about this.

Obvious the worst consequence will be increased flooding, and eventually some major cities uninhabitable.  Then again, I didn't hear any voices telling me to build an ark, yet...

[Rtd208]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

Congrats.  How many more times can you say the same thing every day on multiple boards?

As many times as I can until it annoys you which it clearly already has. Have a nice day. 

[Wannabehippie]

On 12/26/2022 at 12:29 PM, LibertyBell said:

Why did clippers back then bring 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow and now it's like an inch or two at most and usually not even that?

 

I think it all depends on how much ocean moisture/any redevelopment that might occur that affects the snowfall total from clippers.

But I remember plenty of clippers bringing just a dusting to a couple of inches of snow when I was a kid, and early adult years. I was always hoping we would get school cancellations out of them, but rarely happened.

 

[Rjay]

Will EWR hit 90 in January?

[North and West]

Will EWR hit 90 in January?

107°


.

[gpsnavigator]

53 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Will EWR hit 90 in January?

No, but I don't think 80 is completely nuts to ponder.  It's already happened in February (2/21/2018).

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

No, but I don't think 80 is completely nuts to ponder.  It's already happened in February (2/21/2018).

80 no but 75 is within reach. 

[SRRTA22]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

80 no but 75 is within reach. 

80 is in reach at any given time. 

It's almost January , it's 1am , it's warm and the birds are chirping. 

We've become Richmond,va 

[bkviking]

Anyone know what happened to Isotherm? Miss his analysis. I think his last winter outlook a few years ago frustrated him. 

[weatherpruf]

10 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

80 is in reach at any given time. 

It's almost January , it's 1am , it's warm and the birds are chirping. 

We've become Richmond,va 

Yesterday I saw insects flying in the garden. This would have been unthinkable when I was a kid.

[donsutherland1]

To preemptively address a tweet concerning extremes and climate change:

The line of argument is that because extremes happened in the past, extremes cannot be linked to climate change. In fact, because synoptic events occur within the context of, among other things, climate forcings, that line of argument is flawed. There is no compelling statistical or physical reason internal variability and a warmer climate must be mutually exclusive outcomes.

With climate change, one has witnessed a continuation of extremes. When it comes to temperatures, one has seen a decided shift in extremes toward warmer outcomes reflecting the warming of the climate. For purposes of illustration, I compared minimum temperatures for New York City for the December 1891-1920 and 1991-2020 periods.  

Statistically, 3-sigma events exist in both regimes. But the meaning of a 3-sigma event differs. The December 25, 2022 low temperature of 7° was a 3-sigma event. In the climate regime of a century ago, a 3-sigma event would have had a low temperature below 2°.

Below is a graph with the distribution of daily low temperatures for both climate regimes. Notice the rightward shift in the distribution of low temperatures (warming). Both regimes still have tails, but the numbers in the tails differ reflecting the warming of the climate (urban heat island and anthropogenic warming).