ChiTownSnow Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Probs not thread worthy but I’m bullish next week’s clipper for widespread 1-3” and lollipops of 4”+ Hopefully we get under that pivot/axis. Someone will get 4 for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Hopefully we get under that pivot/axis. Someone will get 4 for sure Yup. Given what we’ve seen with stronger clippers in the past, they tend to move a bit further north and overachieve. I’d favor DVN CWA for highest totals with LOT a close 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 This long range is atrocious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, mimillman said: This long range is atrocious Definitely not a great look for winter lovers. Maybe things get better beyond the first part of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 February will be rockin' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 On 12/22/2022 at 8:20 PM, Stebo said: Id be very shocked if we get anything for at least 2 weeks maybe even longer. Formula = For every foot of LES Buffalo region receives, we get 1 wk of AN craptasticly winterless conditions. Oh, and the AN Precip map - yeah, OFC, when it warms up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 55 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: February will be rockin' One of these times it won't be, which is why it would be nice to bag a good amount of snow prior to then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: One of these times it won't be, which is why it would be nice to bag a good amount of snow prior to then. Monthly SN anomalies map showed Nov and Dec BN (check), with Jan AN, and Feb more normal-ish this year. We are very overdue for Jan to show-up. It's been a bit colder but almost as snowless as Dec. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Monthly SN anomalies map showed Nov and Dec BN (check), with Jan AN, and Feb more normal-ish this year. We are very overdue for Jan to show-up. It's been a bit colder but almost as snowless as Dec. January has been more the wild card. Certainly snowier tham Dec, but we are due for a snowy Jan. The theme hast been AN snow in November, February, & April and BN in December and March. But as hoosier said, we can't always count on Feb to be rockin. One of these years it won't be (likewise one of these years we will get a snowy December again). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Good to see another MSP special on the long range Euro. Keep em’ coming, their climo is almost as bad as Lansing! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Honestly I'll take the chance of one of like four thread the needle events working out over trying to will an actual even into existence because that hasn't worked for shit either lately. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Looking forward to mid to late January when we have another chance of 5-6 days of actual winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 The storm early next week looks like a nice road salt wash off-er for a good chunk of the sub. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2022 Author Share Posted December 26, 2022 On 12/22/2022 at 6:59 PM, Chicago Storm said: Haven't had a chance to put out much in the way of thoughts regarding the final 1/3rd of December, but a quick glance at ENS guidance will tell you all you need to know... We transition from current cold period, to a mix of cool/mild for next week, and likely into early January as well. If you're looking for a quality snow pattern, good luck...You'll need to bank on thread the needle opportunities, even into early January. A little more this now... While we have been cold in the wake of the pre-Christmas storm system, the next pattern change has already been underway on the large scale. After being in the COD for quite a while, the MJO is on the move through low amplitude phases of 4-5-6-7, through the first 1/3rd of January. At this time of year a majority of those phases are warmer phases, but given the low amplitude, the effect will not be as great as otherwise possible with a high amplitude push. Also what is changing is that we are seeing the larger scale blocking and teleconnection pattern breaking down. The significant -AO/-NAO has finally been crumbling, and the -EPO push is fading as well. We are now transitioning into more of a +AO/+NAO/+EPO pattern, with a PNA that will be in flux. Another thing to mention is the SPV is on the move, after being anchored in the N Canada/Greenland area for a while, it will slide back to the other side of the pole in the vicinity of the Russia/Arctic Coast for a while. All in all, temperatures will be a mix of cool/mild to end of December and continue through the first 1/3rd of January, with things being more mild than not. The weather pattern should be fairly active across the CONUS, but with mostly rainer threats for most (Not all) of the sub-forum. Best chances for snow will be across the NW/N portion of the sub-forum, or if a thread the needle scenario can occur elsewhere. There are some hints that things may attempt to change a bit for mid-month, but those signals are still a while off. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 zzzzzz 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: zzzzzz May not be wintry to some people's liking but it won't be quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: May not be wintry to some people's liking but it won't be quiet. Meant for snow. Looks like we'll be heading towards mid Jan with <5" snow for the season unless storm track shifts southeast some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 It's an op run, but outside of the northern tier, the 00z GFS is absolutely brutal for the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: It's an op run, but outside of the northern tier, the 00z GFS is absolutely brutal for the entire run. another mid month flip incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 2 hours ago, Baum said: another mid month flip incoming... ^copium 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Not anything great, but seeing signs that we'll move into a less hostile pattern for winter lovers as we head toward mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not anything great, but seeing signs that we'll move into a less hostile pattern for winter lovers as we head toward mid month. Which at that time we'll be halfway through met winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Not anything great, but seeing signs that we'll move into a less hostile pattern for winter lovers as we head toward mid month. Keep it away! There’s no place for sub 50° highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Which at that time we'll be halfway through met winter. Mid January thru February is our new golden period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Mid January thru February is our new golden period. It has been notoriously quiet in January since that jan 5 2014 storm? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 I’ve been quietly watching the system coming up early next week. The metro has been riding the line between cold rain (GFS) and warning criteria snows (Euro) MSP pulled the trigger on a WSW today for 3-7”. Personally I think there’s a big divide per usual between northern and southern ends of the metro with 3” south and 6-8”+ north. Been fun to track but wish there was more potential across the subforum to aid the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 55 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It has been notoriously quiet in January since that jan 5 2014 storm? January 2014 was the snowiest Jan on record with 39.1". However we actually finished with normal to above normal snowfall in January 2015, 2017, and 2019. But a majority of the time a lot of the activity comes the 2nd half of January. Below is the total snowfall at Detroit from January 15th through February 28th for the past 20 years. The average snowfall in that time frame is around 15", and actually the long term average is closer to 14". 2002- 19.1" 2003- 24.6" 2004- 7.1" 2005- 27.2" 2006- 8.0" 2007- 20.3" 2008- 32.2" 2009- 20.6" 2010- 27.8" 2011- 39.8" 2012- 16.0" 2013- 32.9" 2014- 40.0" 2015- 31.2" 2016- 11.6" 2017- 9.4" 2018- 26.6" 2019- 21.3" 2020- 22.0" 2021- 26.8" 2022- 26.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Mid January thru February is our new golden period.Our winters have been downgraded to at best a 45 day affair. Shrinking fast like the polar ice caps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 I’ve been quietly watching the system coming up early next week. The metro has been riding the line between cold rain (GFS) and warning criteria snows (Euro) MSP pulled the trigger on a WSW today for 3-7”. Personally I think there’s a big divide per usual between northern and southern ends of the metro with 3” south and 6-8”+ north. Been fun to track but wish there was more potential across the subforum to aid the discussion. Man it’s bad when MSP is riding the rain/snow line in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now