Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
 Share

Recommended Posts

Call me crazy I guess, but I actually think it's a step in the right direction over the last few GFS runs.   

Especially given what we just saw with the most recent storm, If you assume that the GFS is too aggressive and fast with the Arctic front, then everything pulls back west again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Not to get our hopes up for a good storm in long range or not get sucked in run to run on every model or both? Ha

It’s basically what we do.  Why else come here?  :P

also ukmet looks like it would go in a completely different direction with the pna ridge offf shore and trough much further west…. That would probably be Chicago special.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

It’s basically what we do.  Why else come here?  :P

also ukmet looks like it would go in a completely different direction with the pna ridge offf shore and trough much further west…. That would probably be Chicago special.

Right?! Wishcasting keeps the forum lively. Definitely eager to see how this pattern shift pans out. Would be a shame to see all this cold air go to waste but wouldn't be first time. Ha

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

definitely a thread the needle...but when aren't they?

options

1.  strung out fast moving northern stream sends a run-of-the-mill cold front (gfs 6z)

2. potent northern stream digs to TN valley and sets up a coastal and we are in the donut-hole smoking cirrus

3. something in between, (euro)

At least it appears there won't be precip-type issues.  Even if someone starts as rain it would be a quick turnover.

A blend of #2 and #3 would be on-brand with how most systems have evolved in the post-GHD era...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

GFS = baby steps in right direction 

Forget about it…. DT saw the 12z gfs and is barking like a rabid dog.  This is not just a coastal but a BFD (his words), and he’s even cutting a special vid.   Any future runs showing a further nw solution will be deemed as defying physics and you will be instructed to ignore.

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The main wave is currently located within a large trough, off the coast of Japan. Then add in the countless other pieces/players still in flux.

Good luck figuring things out for several days yet.

Yeah, this is a multiple pronged event, there is easily the potential of it being nothing or being what the euro showed last night. What I do expect is for the southern stream to slow some and the northern stream to speed up some. Will that leave enough of a pocket for some wave separation and a storm, remains to be seen.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

eps_z500a_namer_fh156_trend.thumb.gif.2fc3a8bc2d4396ecbc55f9fa43e10cc7.gif

Ton of uncertainty here, as others have mentioned the shortwave that will cause all this is still entangled in a larger trough. That said, some trends to watch...the reason we're seeing many suppressed solutions in the op runs (with many ensemble members also suppressed) is they have too broad of a ridge out west extending into the southern Plains, which doesn't allow the shortwave to dig as much and "round the corner" as quickly. While the NAO block has trended stronger and is pinning a large trough over southeastern Canada, it still is located far enough north that the shortwave does have room to dig, if it's amplified enough and if the ridge out west isn't too broad. Those are certainly trends that we've seen before, so it's possible this trends in a more amplified direction.

eps_lowlocs_us_fh180_trend.thumb.gif.f3d10cdde683fb81d17b07076bff8ec0.gif

Have lost some of the huge cutter solutions and there's definitely a trend for more members to jump to the coast quicker. However, still many deep solutions over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, so while trends over the last day or two may have been somewhat unfavorable for a big storm in this sub-forum, I wouldn't rule out some trend back in the other direction yet.

Even if we don't see a big storm, have to feel that such a large upper-level trough and Arctic front would bring some light snow from all the jet support and squalls along the front to a large portion of the region. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...